AL-GAMA'AT AL-ISLAMIYA: CONCERNS REGARDING POSSIBLE REVOCATION OF FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION STATUS

S E C R E T CAIRO 002187



SIPDIS



S/CT FOR WORMAN, BARMON; NSC STAFF FOR PASCUAL



E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018

TAGS: PTER, PREL, PINR, EG

SUBJECT: AL-GAMA'AT AL-ISLAMIYA: CONCERNS REGARDING

POSSIBLE REVOCATION OF FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION STATUS



REF: A. 07 CAIRO 1638

B. IICT-2008-59



Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Matthew Tueller for Reasons

1.4(b) and (d)



1.(S) Summary: The Country Team does not support revoking

the designation of Al-Gama'at al-Islamiya (GI) as a Foreign

Terrorist Organization (FTO). We believe that the GoE's

counter-radicalization efforts with GI have produced

impressive results. The success that has been achieved,

however, is in no small part a result of intense pressure

applied to the group by the security services. Because of

this pressure, specifically the jailing of GI members and the

coercing of renunciations of violence, GI may not pose an

immediate danger. However, as Egyptian security officials

have advised us, if this pressure is lifted, it is likely

that some members of GI would return to violent extremism.

Moreover, not all GI members have accepted GI's renunciation

of violence, and remain in Egyptian prisons as they are

deemed a threat by the GoE. Egyptian contacts also tell us

they remain very concerned by the capabilities and threat

posed by those GI members outside of Egypt who have not

renounced violence. End summary.



2.(S/NF) In a May 2008 assessment of GI as an FTO, the

intelligence community concluded that "most GI members have

only limited capability to carry out terrorist operations,

but many remain active in supporting the global jihad (ref

B)." This assessment is consistent with what we were told

recently by Egypt's State Security Investigations Service

(SSIS). In an October 12 meeting, General Salah Hegazy, the

deputy chief of SSIS' Cairo branch, told us that GoE's

counter-radicalization effort, as a result of which a number

of GI leaders renounced violence and counseled their

followers to do the same (ref A),has been a success.

According to Hegazy, numerous GI members renounced violence

and have been released from prison. Hegazy said SSIS

continues to closely monitor the activities of the released

GI members, as well as ensure their economic well-being, out

of concern that they could return to violent extremism at

"any moment." Hegazy opined that the released GI members are

prone to re-radicalization, and that "left to themselves," it

is likely that they would do so. Without providing a

specific number, Hegazy told us that "numerous" GI members

remain in Egypt's prisons because they have not accepted GI's

renunciation of violence. Hegazy also said that GI members

outside of Egypt have not renounced violence and SSIS remains

concerned about their ability to conduct operations.



3.(S) Ashraf Mohsen, the MFA's Director for

Counterterrorism, told us that he believes the GoE's

counter-radicalization program directed at GI has been

successful. He told us that the GI website, jointly operated

by the GoE and GI, has been especially successful. He

acknowledged, however, that some GI members have not been

swayed by the counter-radicalization program and remain in

prison. While he said that in his "personal view" the GI is

not currently a threat to Egypt, he said that was not the

coordinated Egyptian inter-agency opinion.



4.(S) Comment: We understand and support the requirement to

maintain a credible FTO designation policy as well as the

statutory requirements of Section 219 of the Immigration and

Nationality Act. Nonetheless, all members of the Mission's

inter-agency Homeland Security Working Group disagree with

revoking GI's designation as an FTO. As the SSIS's General

Hegazy told us, GI's renunciation of violence has come about

because of the intense pressure the GoE has imposed -

specifically jailing GI's membership. We are concerned that

a revocation of the FTO designation could be seen as a

reduction in the pressure that has for the last ten years

prevented the group from successfully conducting a terrorist

attack. Such a revocation would likely not be welcomed by

the GoE.



5.(S) Comment (cont.): Per the National Counterterrorism

Center assessment, GI still has a "limited capability" to

carry out terrorist attacks, and per the GoE, some of its

members still have the intent to do so. Thus, we feel it

would be pre-mature to revoke GI's designation as an FTO.

If, however, the decision is made to de-list GI, we request

sufficient advance notification to the Embassy so that we can

inform the GoE and avoid any unpleasant surprises.

SCOBEY