SEPTEMBER 8-9 ARAB LEAGUE MINISTERIAL FOCUSES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 001991 SIPDIS FOR NEA FO, NEA/ELA, NEA/IPA, NEA/RA AND AF E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018 TAGS: PREL KPAL LE IS IZ SY MR XF SU EG SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 8-9 ARAB LEAGUE MINISTERIAL FOCUSES ON DIMMING HOPES FOR AN ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN SETTLEMENT REF: CAIRO 1965 Classified By: ECPO Mincouns William R. Stewart per 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Arab League (AL) Chief of Staff Hisham Youssef briefed the diplomatic corps September 10 on the September 8-9 Arab League Ministerial, stressing that the discussions focused on pessimistic assessments of progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. According to Youssef, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas briefed the AL closed-door session on what he termed as the unlikely prospects for a breakthrough in the direct negotiations. Abbas said the PA would continue negotiating, but would not accept a "partial" settlement in place of a final status agreement, based on the pre-June 5 1967 borders. Abbas told the meeting he is open to continued discussions with Hamas on national reconciliation. Youssef told us privately September 9 that a Saudi proposal for a possible UNSC meeting on settlements is "almost a threat," indicating Arab impatience with continued settlements. Youssef also confided that AL SYG Moussa is furious with the Palestinians for their lack of unity. MFA Cabinet Advisor Mahmoud Affifi told us September 10 that Abbas expressed concern over FM Livni's position on the right of return, in light of her possibly becoming the next prime minister. Affifi said the Syrians and Lebanese reached compromise language in the communique on border security and the Harriri tribunal. AL states agreed on improvements in Iraq. Affifi noted AL members believe an ICC arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir would have extremely negative consequences, and that the African Union commissioner plans travel to Mauritania to broker a compromise to release the former president from jail. End summary. -------------- Israeli-Palestinian Issues -------------- ¶2. (C) We attended Arab League (AL) Chief of Staff Hisham Youssef's September 10 briefing to the diplomatic corps on the September 8-9 AL Ministerial. According to Youssef, Israeli-Palestinian issues dominated discussions, and Arab states expressed doubt that a peace process breakthrough could occur before the end of the year. Palestinian Authority President Abbas attended the closed-door session, and submitted a report on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that painted a "gloomy" picture of the current situation, due to lack of progress from the direct bilateral negotiations and an absence of on the ground improvements in the West Bank and Gaza. Youssef said that the discussion on Israeli-Palestinian issues was characterized by consensus among all AL members that the possibility of achieving a breakthrough in the negotiations to achieve a final settlement by the end of 2008 is becoming increasingly slim. Abbas said that the PA is willing to continue negotiating with the Israelis, but would not accept a "partial or transitional" peace agreement. Abbas criticized Israeli suggestions of a territorial swap where the GOI would retain sections of the West Bank in exchange for land within pre-1967 Israel as "unfair," and therefore unacceptable to the PA. Abbas emphasized to the meeting that the PA is committed to a final settlement on the basis of the pre-June 5, 1967 borders. ¶3. (C) Abbas told the meeting he was "open" to continuing discussions with Hamas on national reconciliation. Youssef briefed that some AL members called for the Hamas-Fatah conflict to be resolved under an "Arab umbrella," rather than through mediation by individual states. Some AL members suggested that Abbas convene an interim Palestinian government comprised of technocrats that would administer daily affairs until general elections could be held as soon as possible. AL members agreed on the necessity of reunifying the West Bank and Gaza under the rule of a single, unified Palestinian government. The session discussed taking unspecified measures against those Palestinian factions that oppose national reconciliation, but no agreement was reached on steps forward. AL members also discussed deploying an Arab peacekeeping force to Gaza, but acknowledged the complexity and difficulty inherrent in such a policy. In general, Youssef said, members believe "time is running out" on Palestine, but agreed to discuss the issue again in November. AL members also worried that a new American administration would be "pre-occupied" with domestic and other international problems and would not focus sufficiently on the peace process. CAIRO 00001991 002 OF 003 ¶4. (C) Youssef told us privately September 9 that AL Secretary-General Amr Moussa is furious with the Palestinians for their lack of unity, which he believes is contributing to undermining the possibility of any progress. Regarding a Saudi proposal to hold a UN Security Council meeting at the foreign minister level on Israeli settlements, possibly at UNGA, Youssef said this should be seen as "almost a threat, indicating that "our (the AL's) patience has run out." MFA Cabinet Advisor Mahmoud Affifi told us September 10 that the suggestion of a UNSC ministerial on settlements originated from AL SYG Moussa, reflecting his frustration with the international community's inability to take action to prevent continued settlement building. ¶5. (C) Affifi also said that during the during the closed-door session, Abbas criticized the Israelis for failing to make pragmatic decisions on how to achieve progress. According to Affifi, Abbas noted his perception that Israeli Prime Minister Olmert's debilitating political problems had played a major role in undermining the direct negotiations. Affifi told us Abbas speculated that if FM Tzipi Livni becomes Prime Minister, she could pose particular problems for the Palestinians because of what Abbas termed as her inflexible position on the right of Palestinian return to pre-1967 Israel. Affifi said that during the session the Jordanians urged an AL approach to UNESCO in response to increased Israeli digging "around the Al-Aqsa mosque," which the GOJ believes is having a detrimental effect on the Jordanian Waqf in Jerusalem. -------------- Iraq -------------- ¶6. (C) Youssef briefed the diplomatic corps that AL members agreed the situation in Iraq was improving. Youssef privately re-confirmed to us his September 4 commitment (reftel) that the Arab League plans to send an ambassador to Iraq October 3 after Ramadan. Affifi commented to us that discussion of Iraq was "not extensive" due to the increased stability there. -------------- Lebanon -------------- ¶7. (C) Affifi told us that Syria raised concerns regarding Lebanese-suggested language for the communique that the Arab League would support action on the Harriri Tribunal "at an early stage." According to Affifi, Syria and Lebanon reached compromise language that deleted any reference to a timetable. Affifi said that Syria also expressed its concerns over language in the communique referring to security on the Lebanese-Syrian border. In the end, Affifi said, the two sides agreed on compromise language. -------------- Sudan -------------- ¶8. (C) Youssef briefed the diplomatic corps that AL members noted that an arrest warrant issued for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir would have "extremely negative" consequences. Affifi said that the Sudanese government proposed a resolution to the AL Foreign Minister's committee to establish a dialogue between the government and representatives from Darfur under the auspices of the Government of Qatar. The Sudanese government appealed for the Arab League to work with the African Union to defuse the tensions created by the International Criminal Court's indictment of Bashir. Privately, Youssef said that the goal of the Doha meeting would be to gather all Sudanese opposition groups together with GOS representatives to hammer out a comprehensive peace deal, "along the lines of what we tried to do in Sirte, Libya (in 2007),but failed." Youssef added that Egypt and Saudi Arabia, along with the AL and African Union, would play key roles under the aegis of the Qataris, and that he hoped arrangements for the conference would be finalized within one week. -------------- Mauritania -------------- ¶9. (C) Affifi said that the African Union Peace and Security Commissioner, Ramadan Al-Amamra, committed to travelling to Mauritania in the next 3-4 days to begin a dialogue with coup CAIRO 00001991 003 OF 003 leaders aimed at a compromise on releasing the former president from jail. We will report more septel on the AL discussions on Sudan and Mauritania following conversations with another AL official next week. -------------- Somalia -------------- ¶10. (C) Youssef confided to us September 9 his personal view that the tribal fragmentation in Somalia makes a resolution to the current conflict almost impossible. SCOBEY