FOREIGN MINISTER ON GEORGIA, IRAQ, AND U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001876 SIPDIS NSC FOR PASCUAL E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID KIRF RU GG IZ EG SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ON GEORGIA, IRAQ, AND U.S. ASSISTANCE REF: A. CAIRO 1789 ¶B. CAIRO 1862 Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In an August 24 meeting, Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit told the Ambassador he had not yet read the report and recommendations of an MFA team that recently traveled to Baghdad to assess security conditions in preparation for the potential return of an Egyptian ambassador. He demonstrated keen interest in the relationship between the Maliki government and the "Sahwa" (Awakening) councils, apparently wanting to ensure that Maliki is sufficiently supportive of Sunni Iraqis, and is not targeting the "Sahwa" groups. Aboul Gheit was critical of what he perceived as US-sanctioned Georgian provocations of Russia, and predicted that Russia will keep South Ossetia and Abkhazia "secured" for the foreseeable future. Aboul Gheit was also clearly frustrated by his sense of continued U.S. lack of appreciation for Egypt, commenting that by its insistence on reform, the USG is "trying to break the legs of your main regional ally!" The FM said Egypt would host a mid-October "Quintet" sub-ministerial meeting focused on strategic planning issues, to include Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, and the US (reported ref B). End summary. -------------- IRAQ -------------- ¶2. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query as to the readout of the Egyptian MFA team that traveled to Iraq August 18-21 to assess security conditions in preparation for the potential return of an ambassador (ref A),Aboul Gheit said he had received the report the previous day, but had not had a chance to read it yet. The Ambassador commented that Egyptians were much needed on the ground in Iraq, and that she hoped there would be movement forward soon. Later in the meeting, Aboul Gheit brought up Iraq again, inquiring as to the Maliki government's approach to the "Sahwa" councils, and specifically whether the GOI was "targeting" the groups, citing recent GOI action against the Diyala province "Sahwa" council. The Ambassador noted that maintaining extra-governmental armed forces is not a long-term solution, and that the "Sahwa" councils will need to be incorporated into the GOI security forces and, alternatively, provided with other jobs and training. The DCM noted that the Diyala �00A;"Sahwa" had been infiltrated by Al Qaida, which resulted in GOI action against it. He said that PM Maliki has grown to truly appreciate the value of the "Sahwa" councils. Aboul Gheit remarked that the GOE does not want to appear "as if we are letting the Sunnis down, and working with someone who is on the verge of discriminating against them," to which the Ambassador replied that Egyptian counsel on such issues would be valuable to Maliki, and that he needs to hear from Arab leaders. -------------- RUSSIA-GEORGIA -------------- ¶3. (C) Drawing a comparison to former Ambassador April Glaspie's meeting with Saddam Hussein just prior to Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, Aboul Gheit was critical of the USG for allegedly not making clear to Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili that "he must not provoke Russia, or you will put us all in a corner. Russia's feelings of humiliation over the past 15 years made it obvious that the Russians would react as they have. The Georgians should have been told to be careful, and not to endanger their own country, and the fabric of U.S.-Russian relations." Aboul Gheit predicted that the Russians would "keep South Ossetia and Abkhazia secured ...the situation will remain like this for the next decade or so, as Russia plays chess." Aboul Gheit also asserted that "the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is like Kosovo, but in reverse," and criticized the U.S. for "constantly pushing the envelope with Russia," particularly with regard to NATO expansion. ¶4. (C) According to Aboul Gheit, the ramifications of current Russian-Western tension over Georgia are that the Russians "will not cooperate" on Iran for the foreseeable future, nor will they work constructively with the US and others on Middle East peace process issues. After the Ambassador's discussion of the US position on Georgia, she also noted that the USG will be speaking publicly in international fora about the dispute, and about the pressing humanitarian concerns there. She requested that Egypt, at least in private discussions with the Russians, stress the need for attention CAIRO 00001876 002 OF 002 to humanitarian concerns and the need for monitors. The FM did not argue against these positions but did not commit to endorsing any of them. When the Ambassador asked that Egypt work to discourage any Russian move to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Aboul Gheit said he was certain that Russia would not take such a step, discounting any move in the Duma as political theater. -------------- U.S.-EGYPTIAN RELATIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) Sparked by a brief discussion of the current state of play regarding future ESF to Egypt, Aboul Gheit emotionally criticized the USG: "You keep pushing Egypt to change course, 'or else.' This is an extremely damaging approach. We both are trying to find our way in the troubled waters of Iraq, Iran, revived Islamism, and anger against the West, and we must tread carefully .... The U.S. wants to confront Iran, but at the same time, you are trying to break the legs of your main regional ally, Egypt!" The Ambassador noted that Egypt has many friends in the U.S. who are concerned and who want to be supportive of Egypt, but who have lost confidence that there is an Egyptian political reform process. The FM responded that the major challenge for Egypt is in confronting Islamists, who must be taken on not only through the security forces, but also by providing employment opportunities and stories of success for the average Egyptian, which would theoretically undercut their appeal. Aboul Gheit asserted that Egypt's struggle against Islamic extremism is made harder due to U.S. policies in the region. ¶6. (C) In a discussion of Coptic-Muslim relations in Egypt, Aboul Gheit posited that, "there is no persecution of Copts; rather, there is discrimination against them." He detailed his own efforts to recruit Copts to join the Egyptian diplomatic corps, which he said have had only limited success thus far, despite targeted recruitment and scholarship opportunities. The Ambassador encouraged him to continue with such endeavors. SCOBEY