GOE AND ARAB LEAGUE ON JULY 19 MINISTERIAL ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 001528 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018 TAGS: PREL PHUM EG SU SUBJECT: GOE AND ARAB LEAGUE ON JULY 19 MINISTERIAL ON SUDAN AND THE ICC REF: CAIRO 1483 Classified by Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Arab League Secretariat Advisor for African Affairs Zeid Sabban told us on July 17 that the Arab League would try to tread a "middle road" in its upcoming July 19 ministerial on the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor's recommendation to indict Sudanese President Bashir, but that Secretary General Amre Moussa and his advisors are still discussing the best approach. No other topics besides the ICC are on the ministerial agenda, he said. Sabban noted that the Arab League would have to balance between the Sudanese's concerns and the fact that three members of the Arab League have ratified the ICC. He confirmed local press reports that Moussa plans to travel to Sudan on July 20 to meet with Bashir the day after the ministerial. ¶2. (C) On July 16, Egyptian MFA Sudan desk officer Ahmed Hussein told us that the MFA issued its July 15 statement warning of the "irresponsible tackling of the situation in Sudan" because Egypt needed to show solidarity with Sudan. He expected that any statement resulting from the ministerial will avoid making strong statements on the ICC ruling, and will call for Sudan to continue its cooperation with the UN. He predicted that the GOE will use this opportunity to continue to press the Sudanese to present a fair power and wealth sharing plan to the people of Darfur, to dry up support for rebel groups and lay the groundwork for political settlement, he said. ¶3. (C) Separately on July 17, MFA Senior Cabinet Advisor and Spokesman Hossam Zaki described the Sudan/ICC situation as "very awkward." He predicted that the ministerial would be "defensive" in tone. He said that the Bashir regime is far from perfect, but has held Sudan together and agreed to work toward peace and stability. He emphasized that the ICC has indicted a sitting president. Removing Bashir could lead to the implosion of Sudan, which would affect Egypt more than any other country in the world. "We don't care for him personally, but this is about the stability of Sudan, and our strategic interests," he said. Zaki reported that Egyptian Ambassador to Washington Nabil Fahmy had made these points in a recent meeting with President Bush. ¶4. (C) Zaki opined that the United Nations Security Council should, if necessary, use its authority to "stay" prosecution of Bashir for 12 months. He expected the Arab League debate and final resolution would "go in this direction." He said that the current draft of the resolution is "realistic and reasonable, and will try to keep things in perspective." SCOBEY