MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SHUT-OUT IN PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001484

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NSC FOR PASCUAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KISL EG
SUBJECT: MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SHUT-OUT IN PARLIAMENTARY
BY-ELECTIONS

REF: 2005 CAIRO 9486

Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs
William R. Stewart, for reason 1.4 (d).


1. (C) Summary: On July 13, elections for four empty
parliamentary seats were held in Alexandria and the Nile
Delta province of Kafr al Shaikh. The National Democratic
Party (NDP) candidates won in all of the races, amid
allegations from the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) candidates of
electoral fraud and the barring of MB voters from polling
stations. The apparent government intervention in the
voting, and diminished tolerance for MB electoral gains,
foreshadows what can be expected in the coming 2010
parliamentary elections. End summary.


2. (SBU) During the 2005 parliamentary elections, in which
the MB won 88 seats, elections for two seats in Alexandria
and two in Kafr al Shaikh were halted by court order due to
reports of voting irregularities and election fraud.
According to voting statistics released by the GOE, at the
time the four contests were stopped, the MB candidates had
commanding leads in all of the races (reftel). After a two
and half year hiatus, the Ministry of Interior announced on
July 3 that the frozen elections would be held on July 13,
with the same candidates as in 2005. (Note: Elections in six
other districts which were also halted in 2005 have still not
been scheduled. End note.) Feverish campaigning began, and
in the week leading up to the elections, at least 60 MB
campaign workers were arrested. The MB candidates hung
banners throughout the contested districts, using the
traditional MB slogan of "Islam is the solution," and a newer
motto, first adopted in the June 2007 Shura Council
elections, of "Together for Reform." Ali Abdel Fattah, an MB
leader in Alexandria, defended the continued use of the
controversial "Islam is the solution" slogan by telling
journalists that it is in accordance with Article 2 of the
Egyptian constitution, which reads, "Islam is the religion of
the state ... and the principal source of legislation is
Shari'ah."


3. (SBU) During the July 13 voting, the Egyptian media and
civil society groups reported on a massive security presence
in Alexandria, with more than 200 armored vehicles reportedly
deployed near polling stations. Police checkpoints were
allegedly set up in streets near polling stations, and
presumed MB voters were turned away. (Note: The MB has a
particularly strong base of support in Alexandria, which has
grown progressively more conservative over the past decade.
In 2005, the MB won eight of the nine parliamentary races it
contested there, giving the Islamist organization eight of
Alexandria's twenty-two seats in the People's Assembly. End
note.) The two MB candidates in Alexandria called a press
conference, where they complained of "the intervention of
security forces in the elections, the rigging of the vote,
the blocking of our supporters from polling stations, overall
security excesses, and the detentions of our supporters."
According to the official election results, out of 32,500
votes cast, one MB candidate received 185 votes, and the
other only 4 votes. Both MB candidates vowed to fight the
election results in court.


4. (SBU) In Kafr al Shaykh, the Administrative Judiciary
Court rejected an appeal from the MB candidates to postpone
the elections due to the notification of the election date
only ten days before the elections, which they claimed did
not allow sufficient time for campaigning. The MB candidates
also asserted that security forces blocked their supporters
from voting, and filed an official complaint with the head of
the local election committee, accusing the NDP of rigging the
elections. One of the MB's candidates, Ragab Al-Bana,
withdrew from the election in mid-afternoon, in protest at
his supporters allegedly being forcibly removed from 23
polling stations.


5. (SBU) In public comments after the NDP candidates were
declared the victors, both MB leaders and candidates have
reiterated their commitment to the democratic process and
non-violence. MB Alexandria leader Osama Nasr called the
elections "shameful," but noted that the experience "will not
deter the MB from practicing our democratic rights." In
comments to the press, Nasr said, "They should at least have
given people the opportunity to enter polling stations and
cast their votes .... they denied citizens the minimum right
of self expression." Hussein Ibrahim, deputy leader of the
MB's parliamentary bloc, told journalists that, "what
happened dealt a crippling blow to democracy, and freedom of
expression and association." He highlighted that, "despite
the NDP's continued fraud and repression, the MB will

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continue with our efforts at peaceful political reform."


6. (C) Comment: The July 13 by-elections likely foreshadow
what can be expected from the 2010 People's Assembly and
Shura Council elections. Conventional wisdom in Cairo holds
that in 2010, the GOE's diminished tolerance for the MB's
electoral participation will result in the MB falling far
short of their current 88 parliamentary seats. Certainly the
widespread fraud in the April 2008 local council elections
and the June 2007 Shura Council elections clearly
demonstrated the government's willingness to undertake a wide
variety of measures in order to ensure that no MB candidates
win seats.

SCOBEY