MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SHUT-OUT IN PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001484 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR PASCUAL E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KISL EG SUBJECT: MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SHUT-OUT IN PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS REF: 2005 CAIRO 9486 Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart, for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 13, elections for four empty parliamentary seats were held in Alexandria and the Nile Delta province of Kafr al Shaikh. The National Democratic Party (NDP) candidates won in all of the races, amid allegations from the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) candidates of electoral fraud and the barring of MB voters from polling stations. The apparent government intervention in the voting, and diminished tolerance for MB electoral gains, foreshadows what can be expected in the coming 2010 parliamentary elections. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) During the 2005 parliamentary elections, in which the MB won 88 seats, elections for two seats in Alexandria and two in Kafr al Shaikh were halted by court order due to reports of voting irregularities and election fraud. According to voting statistics released by the GOE, at the time the four contests were stopped, the MB candidates had commanding leads in all of the races (reftel). After a two and half year hiatus, the Ministry of Interior announced on July 3 that the frozen elections would be held on July 13, with the same candidates as in 2005. (Note: Elections in six other districts which were also halted in 2005 have still not been scheduled. End note.) Feverish campaigning began, and in the week leading up to the elections, at least 60 MB campaign workers were arrested. The MB candidates hung banners throughout the contested districts, using the traditional MB slogan of "Islam is the solution," and a newer motto, first adopted in the June 2007 Shura Council elections, of "Together for Reform." Ali Abdel Fattah, an MB leader in Alexandria, defended the continued use of the controversial "Islam is the solution" slogan by telling journalists that it is in accordance with Article 2 of the Egyptian constitution, which reads, "Islam is the religion of the state ... and the principal source of legislation is Shari'ah." ¶3. (SBU) During the July 13 voting, the Egyptian media and civil society groups reported on a massive security presence in Alexandria, with more than 200 armored vehicles reportedly deployed near polling stations. Police checkpoints were allegedly set up in streets near polling stations, and presumed MB voters were turned away. (Note: The MB has a particularly strong base of support in Alexandria, which has grown progressively more conservative over the past decade. In 2005, the MB won eight of the nine parliamentary races it contested there, giving the Islamist organization eight of Alexandria's twenty-two seats in the People's Assembly. End note.) The two MB candidates in Alexandria called a press conference, where they complained of "the intervention of security forces in the elections, the rigging of the vote, the blocking of our supporters from polling stations, overall security excesses, and the detentions of our supporters." According to the official election results, out of 32,500 votes cast, one MB candidate received 185 votes, and the other only 4 votes. Both MB candidates vowed to fight the election results in court. ¶4. (SBU) In Kafr al Shaykh, the Administrative Judiciary Court rejected an appeal from the MB candidates to postpone the elections due to the notification of the election date only ten days before the elections, which they claimed did not allow sufficient time for campaigning. The MB candidates also asserted that security forces blocked their supporters from voting, and filed an official complaint with the head of the local election committee, accusing the NDP of rigging the elections. One of the MB's candidates, Ragab Al-Bana, withdrew from the election in mid-afternoon, in protest at his supporters allegedly being forcibly removed from 23 polling stations. ¶5. (SBU) In public comments after the NDP candidates were declared the victors, both MB leaders and candidates have reiterated their commitment to the democratic process and non-violence. MB Alexandria leader Osama Nasr called the elections "shameful," but noted that the experience "will not deter the MB from practicing our democratic rights." In comments to the press, Nasr said, "They should at least have given people the opportunity to enter polling stations and cast their votes .... they denied citizens the minimum right of self expression." Hussein Ibrahim, deputy leader of the MB's parliamentary bloc, told journalists that, "what happened dealt a crippling blow to democracy, and freedom of expression and association." He highlighted that, "despite the NDP's continued fraud and repression, the MB will CAIRO 00001484 002 OF 002 continue with our efforts at peaceful political reform." ¶6. (C) Comment: The July 13 by-elections likely foreshadow what can be expected from the 2010 People's Assembly and Shura Council elections. Conventional wisdom in Cairo holds that in 2010, the GOE's diminished tolerance for the MB's electoral participation will result in the MB falling far short of their current 88 parliamentary seats. Certainly the widespread fraud in the April 2008 local council elections and the June 2007 Shura Council elections clearly demonstrated the government's willingness to undertake a wide variety of measures in order to ensure that no MB candidates win seats. SCOBEY