MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD ELECTIONS: SOME INTERNAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001315 SIPDIS NSC FOR PASCUAL E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018 TAGS: PREL KDEM KISL PINR EG SUBJECT: MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD ELECTIONS: SOME INTERNAL RESHUFFLING REF: A. 2007 CAIRO 197 ¶B. 2007 CAIRO 3129 ¶C. CAIRO 783 ¶D. CAIRO 785 Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political and Economic Affairs William R. Stewart, for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: Late May elections for the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood's (MB) highest body elevated five new members to the Guidance Council, among them two MB parliamentarians, an unprecedented move for the group. Some analysts herald the exclusion of a prominent MB moderate from the Guidance Council as a worrisome sign of the increased strength of the organization's conservative faction. Others point to the inclusion of the two MB MP's (one of whom, Saad El Katatni, is a strong moderate voice within the group) as an indicator of the increased importance of the parliamentary bloc within the MB's organizational hierarchy, and a sign of the MB's commitment to electoral politics. It is still too early to tell if the changes on the MB's Guidance Council will result in any demonstrable changes to the group's policy and outlook; major shifts are considered unlikely. More likely, the MB's organizational schizophrenia, and policy and power struggles between the religiously-oriented conservative wing and the politically-oriented moderate wing of the group, will remain unresolved for the foreseeable future. End summary and comment. ¶2. (SBU) According to press reports and Embassy contacts, the Muslim Brotherhood held internal elections for its approximately 22-25 member Guidance Council during the last two weeks of May. The Guidance Council is the group's most senior body, and had not held elections since 1995. In the aftermath of the 1995 elections, numerous MB Shura Council members (who elect the Guidance Council) were arrested, and tried before a military tribunal. According to some of our contacts, due to MB fears of similar arrests, the Shura Council did not convene to elect the new Guidance Council members, but rather, members submitted ballots individually to MB leaders. Other contacts allege that there were not in fact "elections" held at all, but that the five new Guidance Council members were simply appointed by MB secretary-general Mahmoud Ezzat, a renowned conservative figure within the organization. ¶3. (SBU) The MB apparently deemed the new appointments necessary due to fill the gaps created by the imprisonment of leading Guidance Council members Khayrat Al Shater (MB Second Deputy Supreme Guide) and Mohamed Ali Bishr (who were recently sentenced to 7 and 3 year prison terms respectively by a military tribunal, ref D),the 2007 death of Guidance Council member Ahmed Hassanein, and the lingering illnesses of some other elderly Guidance Council members. The status of Al Shater - previously, a strong moderate voice within the organization, and prior to his imprisonment, widely expected to be the next Supreme Guide - and Bishr remains unclear, in terms of whether they will be able to reassume their positions after their eventual release from prison, or are being removed entirely from the group's leadership. ¶4. (C) The five new Guidance Council members (brief biographic details at para 6) include Mohamed Saad El Katatni, the elected head of the MB's parliamentary bloc, and Saad al Husseini, another prominent MB MP who represents the restive Nile Delta milltown of Mahalla al Kubra (see ref C for details on recent riots there). The inclusion of MB parliamentarians on the Guidance Council is an unprecedented development, that some of our contacts view as a sign of the MB MP's increased importance within the group's organizational hierarchy, and a sign of the MB's commitment to electoral politics versus the more reactionary orientation on religious activities. Katatni is widely viewed as a moderate, has made repeated public calls for dialogue with the West (ref A) and is willing to meet with US and other foreign diplomats. ¶5. (SBU) In addition to the two MB MP's, the three other new Guidance Council members hail from Alexandria and the Egyptian countryside, both the seats of the MB's more conservative base (verus the more moderate-leaning, urban Cairo constituency). Some local analysts lament the exclusion of Essam El Erian, the MB's prominent spokesman, leading member of the group's Political Bureau, and the MB's most vocal moderate voice. Rumor has it that Erian was not elevated to the Guidance Council in part due to his forward-leaning comments in October 2007 regarding recognition of Israel (ref B). Younger, activist members of the MB are disgruntled about the lack of transparency in the elections, and about the exclusion of El Erian from the CAIRO 00001315 002 OF 002 Guidance Council, and have voiced these complaints on a range of MB-affiliated blogs. ¶6. (SBU) Biographic information on the new Guidance Council members is as follows: - Dr. Mohamed Saad el Katatni: Born March 4, 1952, and a professor at Minya University's faculty of science. Katatni is an MP from Minya, and the head of the MB's parliamentary bloc. In addition to his parliamentary activities, Katatni has been active over the past two years in attending various international conferences, and meeting in Cairo with a range of foreign diplomats. - Saad El Husseini: Born February 18, 1959, Husseini is an MB MP from the Gharbiyya Province Sixth constituency, which includes Mahalla el Kobra. Husseini graduated from Mansoura University in 1982 with a degree in civil engineering, and subsequently received a law degree from Tanta University (2000) and a master's degree from Tanta University in Islamic Shariah studies (2004). He is the CEO of Al Mad'aen Engineering Office. Husseini has been arrested nine times on various charges stemming from his MB affiliation. He was tried before a military tribunal in 1995. - Dr. Osama Nasr El Deen: Born in April 1956, El Deen is a professor of laboratory testing at Alexandria University. He joined the MB in the 1970's, and has been arrested at least five times. El Deen heads the MB's Alexandria Administrative Office. He is married with four children. - Dr. Mohey Hamed Mohamed: A member of the MB's Sharqiyya Province Administrative Office, Mohamed has been arrested eleven times for his MB affiliations, most recently in the run-up to the April 2008 local council elections. - Dr. Mohamed Abdel Rahman: Deputy head of the MB's Daqaliyya Province Administrative Office. Abdel Rahman has been detained numerous times over the past two decades. SCOBEY