S/P DIRECTOR GORDON, MG AL-ASSAR DISCUSS BILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001241 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2018 TAGS: PARM PREL EAID KPAL IR IS EG SUBJECT: S/P DIRECTOR GORDON, MG AL-ASSAR DISCUSS BILATERAL RELATIONS, REGIONAL ISSUES Classified By: DCM Stuart Jones for reason 1.4 (b). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a June 5 discussion, Assistant Minister of Defense for Policy MG Mohammed Al-Assar told S/P Director Gordon that Egypt is a strategic partner for the U.S., and criticized Congress' attempt to condition aid funds as "narrowly focused." Al-Assar claimed that conditionality hampers Egyptian strategic planning for the future. He cited GOE progress on countering smuggling into Gaza, and blamed the Israeli "embargo" on Gaza for stimulating smuggling attempts. Al-Assar warned against a U.S. strike on Iran. Gordon agreed that strategic interests should drive the bilateral relationship. He said that Secretary Rice is focused on achieving Israeli-Palestinian peace. Gordon assessed that Iran is losing influence in Iraq, and urged GOE engagement on greater Sunni participation in the Iraqi Government. End summary. -------------- Bilateral Relations -------------- ¶2. (C) Assistant Minister of Defense for Policy MG Al-Assar told S/P Director Gordon that Egypt is a stable, strategic partner for the U.S. in a volatile region. He cited Egypt's facilitating U.S. military ships through the Suez Canal and over-flights to the Gulf. MG Al-Assar criticized Congress' attempt to condition U.S. aid to Egypt despite the GOE's value as a strategic asset. Al-Assar described conditionality efforts as "narrowly focused," and urged the U.S. to separate concerns over Egypt's internal politics from the broader bilateral relationship. He asked rhetorically, "Should one issue -- Ayman Nour -- impact the entire bilateral relationship?" He said that military aid cuts would affect Egypt's minimum requirements for national security, and asserted, "We will not accept FMF with conditions." He thanked Gordon for the USG waiver of conditionality, but urged earlier administration intervention in the future. ¶3. (C) Al-Assar listed the benefits of U.S. military aid, saying that the assistance allows the GOE to keep its own military spending down in order to focus on economic development. He noted that the aid allows greater U.S.-Egyptian interoperability, strengthens Egypt's ability to protect the Suez Canal, and contributes to a regional balance of power. Al-Assar claimed that Congressional conditionality undermines the GOE's ability to define shared strategic objectives with the U.S. Al-Assar asserted that President Mubarak is committed to political reform, but needs to move slowly because of the Muslim Brotherhood's destabilizing role. He assessed that public U.S. calls for political liberalization damage the position of reformers who are consequently viewed as following a U.S. agenda. ¶4. (C) S/P Director Gordon agreed that strategic interests should drive the bilateral relationship. He said the U.S. wants to conduct a constructive dialogue with Egypt on human rights and internal political reform. Gordon noted there has been tension between the Administration and Congress regarding conditionality, and that Secretary Rice will continue to urge Congress to take a more balanced view of U.S.-Egyptian bilateral relations. -------------- Regional Issues -------------- ¶5. (C) Al-Assar described the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a "core regional issue," and asserted that the GOE is making progress on interdicting weapons smuggling into Gaza. He predicted that the U.S.-supplied counter-tunneling equipment scheduled for deployment in early 2009 would strengthen Egypt's capabilities. Al-Assar blamed Israel's "economic blockade" of Gaza for stimulating smuggling, and criticized Israel for refusing to allow Egypt to increase its Border Guard Forces. He claimed that smuggled Katusha rockets enter Gaza via the Mediterranean sea, after eluding Israeli naval patrols. ¶6. (C) Al-Assar said Egypt views Iran as a significant regional threat, but he cautioned against a U.S. strike on Iran. Al-Assar urged the U.S. to seriously consider President Mubarak's proposal for a Middle East Nuclear Weapons Free Zone. He warned that if both Israel and Iran possess nuclear weapons, Egypt "cannot sit aside" and would need to consider its options. MOD's Department of Military Intelligence representative, MG Fouad Arafa, assessed that the major regional issues have reached a current "calming CAIRO 00001241 002 OF 002 point," but could still flare up. He expected Israel to continue talks with the Palestinian Authority (PA) until the U.S. elections, but was skeptical that Israel would be prepared for a final status agreement. ¶7. (C) Gordon stressed that Secretary Rice is focused on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace, and noted she has told the Israeli leadership that PA President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad are reliable partners for peace. Gordon underscored U.S. concern over Iran's nuclear efforts, and over Iran's support for Hizballah, Hamas and extremists in Iraq. He said the U.S. wants to build an international coalition in the UN and with regional partners to counter Iran. ¶8. (C) Gordon assessed that Iran is losing influence in Iraq as the Government of Iraq exerts its authority over Shi'a extremists. He encouraged the GOE to engage with the Iraqis to urge greater Sunni participation in the government. Gordon noted that the Doha Agreement has created a strategic opportunity for anti-Hizballah political forces to forge a broader coalition and draw the Christian parties away from Syria. He said the U.S. believes the Israeli-Syrian talks have some potential for success if pursued in conjunction with the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. However, Gordon stressed that the U.S. is skeptical about Israeli-Syrian progress without a Syrian break from Iran. ¶9. (U) S/P cleared this message. SCOBEY