S/P GORDON MEETS WITH EGYPTIAN MFA TEAM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001198

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV LE IS SY IZ IR EG
SUBJECT: S/P GORDON MEETS WITH EGYPTIAN MFA TEAM

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Stuart Jones
Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (S) S/P Director Dr. David Gordon engaged with MFA Chief
of Cabinet Wafa Bassim in a wide ranging regional policy
discussion June 6. Bassim reiterated the Egyptian view that
resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is paramount.
The Egyptians are supporting the Lebanese government,
assessing the post-Doha Lebanon landscape, and trying to
gauge Syria's position. On Iraq, Egypt "wants Iraq back in
the Arab fold," and although political and security progress
is being made, "fluctuations of violence" are still a major
Egyptian concern. S/P Gordon urged the Egyptians to do more
to support the Iraqi government, noting that recent
developments in Iraq have put Tehran "on its back foot." The
U.S. understands there is a legitimate role for Iran in the
region but that does not include hegemonic behavior. Bassim
said that the Egyptians seek to increase "trilateral
cooperation" with the USG in the Horn of Africa. End
summary.


2. (S) S/P Gordon (accompanied by DCM, Chief of Staff Todd
Deatherage, Special Assistant Whit Wolman, and poloff) met
with MFA Chief of Cabinet Wafa Bassim and several key MFA
advisors June 6. Bassim said that there is pessimism among
Egyptians and Arabs about prospects for Israeli-Palestinian
peace. She expressed concern that internal Israeli domestic
politics and the fate of PM Olmert would negatively affect
Israeli-Palestinian progress. On the other side of the
equation, Bassim said that PA President Abbas needs to be
supported. She reported that the Egyptian-led tahdiya
("calming") talks with Hamas and Israel remained at an
impasse.


3. (S) S/P Gordon agreed that domestic Israeli politics were
important to watch. The Secretary was heavily focused on the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and constantly assessing ways to
help the parties make progress in their negotiations; we are
well aware of the challenges but believe an agreement can be
reached.

IRAQ
--------------


4. (S) Deputy Assistant Minister for Arab Affairs Ayman
Zeineldeen said that Egypt "wants Iraq back in the Arab
fold," and recognized that there has been some political
progress in addition to security gains. But big question
marks remain. The weaponization of the militias such as the
Mahdi Army is a major concern. Zeineldeen queried whether Al
Qaeda in Iraq had "really been eliminated." The GOE is also
concerned about the future of the Iraqi government. Is it
going to be "affiliated" with Iran or independent and
"multi-party" (i.e. representative of Sunnis, Shiaa and
Kurds)? Finally, Zeineldeen asked about the status of oil
revenue-sharing arrangements.


5. (S) S/P Gordon agreed that spikes in violence continue,
but said the overall downward trend is undeniable, and
estimated to be a 70-80 percent decrease. Iran continues to
exert extraordinary efforts to influence the situation, but
Tehran appears to be "on its back foot." There is a growing
rift between Iran and allies of Iraq High Islamic Council
leader Abdel Aziz El Hakim, due to Iran's continuing support
of Sadr and Jaysh al Mahdi. While it would be an
exaggeration to say that Jaysh Al-Mahdi had been defeated, it
had been dealt a big setback. As for al Qaeda in Iraq, S/P
Gordon assessed that it is "80 to 90 percent defeated. They
will not recover." The Shiaa militias are more complicated:
Al Sadr is exerting less influence as the GOI asserts its
authority in Basra and Sadr City and Mosul. The Iraqi people
have been supportive of GOI reclamation of these areas. The
Pashmerga forces are working with the Iraqi Army; in central
and southern Iraq there is growing coordination with the
military and local police.


6. (S) Gordon said that the upcoming Iraqi elections will be
critical; the Kurdish component is stable, and while the rest
of Iraq is not predictable, grass-roots moderates are making
advances. The situation is not perfect, but it is getting
better, and Arab engagement is critical. On oil, Gordon said
that we would like to see more progress, and we are working
with UN special envoy de Mastura. Despite the fact that the
hydrocarbons law has not been finalized, production and
exports continue to increase.


7. (S) Regarding the development of a U.S.-Iraq bilateral
agreement, S/P Gordon said that a lot will depend on
political developments in Iraq that still need to play out.
The Iraqis want to run their own country, and that is on
balance a very good thing. But they recognize that they need
support, and these competing realities must be reconciled.


CAIRO 00001198 002 OF 002


IRAN
--------------


8. (S) The MFA advisors queried S/P Gordon on Iran. Was the
USG planning to strike a deal with Tehran, given Iran's
demonstrated ability to "outmaneuver" the U.S. and its
regional allies? S/P Gordon responded that we recognize that
Iran has a legitimate role to play in the region and we have
made clear that if Iran agrees to suspend enrichment that
"everything is on the table." But we will resist efforts at
hegemony. Iran does not have the right to use lethal force
to attack the sovereignty of a government. Although Iran is
aggressive and has made some tactical regional gains,
Tehran's chronic tendency to overreach -- as evidenced by the
Hizballah takeover of Lebanon -- is proving costly. We
understand that Iraqis do not want a "proxy war" (i.e.
Sunni-Shiaa or Saudi Arabia-Iran) fought in Iraq; we hope the
Iranians share this understanding.

LEBANON
--------------


9. (S) MFA Cabinet Advisor for Syria/Lebanon Nazih Neggary
said that Egypt fully agrees on the need to support Lebanese
moderates and the democratic model for Lebanon. More needs
to be done to support Lebanese institutions, especially the
army. The problem Egypt and Saudi Arabia face is that overt
support of the majority creates a strong counter-movement by
supporters of the opposition (e.g. Syria and Iran).
Hizballah and Iran are "playing on the feelings" of Arabs
very effectively by arguing that resistance, as seen in the
summer 2006 Israel-Hizballah conflict, is the only solution.
To gain the advantage, Neggary suggested advancement of a
political track on Shebaa Farms, supported by Egypt, which
would strengthen Egyptian credibility in the broader Lebanon
political dynamic. To this end, FM Aboul Gheit had recently
delivered a verbal message via Ambassador Fahmy in
Washington.


10. (S) The role of Syria and Iran on the Doha agreement,
and whether or not there is friction between the two, remains
unclear to the GOE. There is no real clarity on
Iranian-Hizballah coordination, but Neggary noted that
Hizballah leader Nasrallah's recent public statement that his
loyalty is to Iranian religious authorities was "rather
stunning."


11. (S) S/P Gordon said that the recent Lebanon crisis, and
subsequent Doha agreement, could be seen as a tactical gain
for Hizballah, but it also created a strategic opening for
moderates. Hizballah had shown its true colors and had
turned its arms on the Lebanese people. In the end, it was a
serious over-reach that had left Hizballah backpedaling as
Lebanon turned toward 2009 parliamentary elections.

AFRICA
--------------


12. (S) Bassim said that she will travel to Washington June
17 to consult (inter alia) on development of U.S-Egypt
cooperation on horn of Africa issues. Bassim said that the
GOE views this as an opportunity for both Egypt and the U.S.
to demonstrate goodwill and work together. S/P Gordon
welcomed this initiative and the chance to continue the
discussion in Washington.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) Members of the MFA team subsequently told us they
deeply appreciated the chance to talk in-depth with S/P
Gordon, commenting that they believe Egypt and the USG are
strategically aligned on major regional issues.


14. (U) This message has been cleared by S/P Gordon.
SCOBEY