AMBASSADOR'S INTRODUCTORY CALL WITH AMRE MOUSSA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001113 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ LE IS EG SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S INTRODUCTORY CALL WITH AMRE MOUSSA Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) The Ambassador and Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa discussed Iraq, Lebanon, the Israeli-Palestinian situation, and the USG's regional democracy strategy in her May 31 introductory call. Moussa said that the Arab League continues to see "eye to eye" with the USG on the need for a prosperous and stable Iraq. He expects the "Doha agreement" will allow for calm in Lebanon at least through the summer. He expressed pessimism on the Israeli-Palestinian front, citing continuing Israeli settlement growth as the primary obstacle. He said that the Arab League intended to issue a report later this year assessing post-Annapolis progress; if the appraisal was poor, the League might consider "other options." Moussa said that "democracy should not be a dirty word," and asked about the state of the USG's democracy dialogue in the region. The Ambassador said that our push for democracy was driven by intrinsic American values and, as such, would undoubtedly continue. End summary. IRAQ -------------- ¶2. (C) Moussa, who had returned the previous day from International Iraq Compact conference in Stockholm, told the Ambassador that "we are all on the same side" with respect to Iraq. Everyone will "pay the price" if Iraq comes to be dominated by a single group (i.e. Sunnis, Shiaa or Kurds). He was keenly aware that Iran has its own agenda. Moussa said that the path forward must include Iraqi conciliation; a USG-Iraqi bilateral relationship and agreement on withdrawal of U.S. forces that is supported by all Iraqis, not just PM Maliki; and improved and effective Iraqi governance. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador asked Moussa if there is room for moderate Arabs to increase engagement in areas such as security, the economy and culture. Moussa said he thought that Arab activity would increase in parallel with the reconciliation progress. He identified security, the performance of PM Maliki's government, the presence of sufficient coalition forces, and the U.S.-Iraq bilteral relationship as key variables that would govern the level of Arab activity. ¶4. (C) The Ambassador said that the reconciliation process has evolved, and that, step by step, factions are negotiating substantive issues. Tawafuk is back in the government. Gradually practical solutions are being worked out. Anbar has turned into one of the safest places in Iraq. The reintegration of some Baathi military officers is taking place, and those who are not returning are expected to begin receiving pensions. Moussa agreed that there are signs of progress, but opined that the process needs to accelerate. He urged that there be an "honorable solution" for all former Iraqi military officers. Moussa said that PM Maliki is improving but he must talk to those who do not recognize him, and they must talk to him. He asked if there was a timetable for development of the U.S.-Iraq bilateral relationship; he had heard rumors in Stockholm that the USG was "in a hurry" and warned against this. "Misplaying this issue will put you on the defensive in a serious way." The Ambassador responded that we need to conclude agreements before the expiration of the UNSCR at the end of the year, and that the focus is on getting it right with our Iraqi counterparts. We understand the importance of getting broad political support for the agreement. LEBANON -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador congratulated Moussa on his role in bringing the Lebanese parties back from a very dangerous situation. Moussa said that he expects the "Doha agreement" to preserve calm into the fall. It is critical that Lebanon enjoy a strong summer tourist season. He said the election of President Sleiman was a major feat, and expected the cabinet to be formed "within 7 to 10 days." Moussa expressed reluctance at the prospect of returning to Beirut in order to mediate, calling cabinet assignments an "exclusively internal affair." The focus in Lebanon is quickly shifting now to the 2009 parliamentary elections, and Moussa assessed that there is a "good chance" for the Doha deal to last. In Moussa's analysis, the Syria-Israel talks could lead Hizballah to moderate, out of fear that it would eventually lose Syrian support. "It is inconceivable that Hizballah would break from this (the Syrian) pattern," he said. He conceded, however, that Iran was no doubt very nervous about the Syria-Israel dialogue, and also strongly influences Hizballah in Lebanon. ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN SITUATION -------------- CAIRO 00001113 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Moussa expressed pessimism on the Israeli-Palestinian track. Failure would "wreck everything" in the region. He opined that post-Annapolis progress had been minimal, and claimed that Palestinian contacts had told him that the negotiating teams had yet to put anything on paper. He reiterated his view that continuing Israeli settlement activity was the main obstacle. Moussa said that an Arab League committee would convene later this year (likely in the late summer) to review progress. "This is not a threat," he said. But, if the report was poor, the committee may recommend that the Arab League consider "other options" than the Annapolis process. Moussa would then consult with the Palestinians and Syrians on next steps. (Note: In previous meetings, Moussa and Arab League Chief of Staff Hisham Yousef have claimed that the notion of "abandoning the two-state solution" has been gaining favor among Arab leaders during the past several months. End note). The Ambassador responded that we understand that the parties are, in fact, discussing sensitive, final status issues in some detail. We are sober about the challenge ahead but we believe it is possible for the two sides to reach agreement by the end of the year. DEMOCRACY DIALOGUE -------------- ¶7. (C) Moussa asked about the U.S. democracy strategy in the region. His belief was that "democracy should not be a dirty word" in the Arab world. How was the dialogue going and what could Arabs expect looking ahead? The Ambassador answered that our commitment to democracy in the region -- in fact around the world -- is a manifestation of a long-standing American foreign policy goal that was rooted in American values. As such, we fully expect our dialogue with Arabs on democracy to be a component of our policy for the foreseeable future. SCOBEY