ARGENTINA: CODEL DODD DISCUSSES REGION WITH

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000760 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD SNAR MASS EAID EC SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: CODEL DODD DISCUSSES REGION WITH AMBASSADORS AND POLITICAL ANALYSTS ¶1. (U) Summary: The Ambassador hosted a lunch with ambassadors and private sector employees in honor of Senator Christopher Dodd and Representative Xavier Becerra. The group discussed the region's efforts at integration, pointing to the benefits of closer relations that have developed and the challenges of reducing poverty and increasing social justice. Regarding Argentina, participants expressed concern about the poor state of political parties and the government's ability to handle inflation and the farm strike. Participants expressed great interest in the U.S. elections and what they could mean for policy towards the region. End summary. Latin America Today -------------- ¶2. (U) The Ambassador welcomed and introduced Senator Dodd and Representative Becerra. Senator Dodd fondly recalled a trip he took to many different South American countries, including Argentina, in the 1960s at the end of his Peace Corps service in the Dominican Republic. Dodd asked the guests to address what Latin America wanted and how to improve relations with the region. Representative Becerra said the region has experienced many changes and asked how the participants saw the relationship with the United States. The participants expressed a great interest and curiosity in the U.S. elections. ¶3. (SBU) Economist Miguel Alberto Kiguel said that the current situation in Latin America is encouraging, with low inflation, budget surpluses, and good foreign policy. Macro-economic policy lessons have been learned -- fiscal surplus, etc. But the micro-economy is still a big challenge. The region is in a unique situation to address poverty, income distribution, and investment in the social sector. Nevertheless, political analyst and professor Carlos Escude said that many countries in Latin America have adopted populist policies to address some nagging social ills. By way of explanation, Escude said he was born in an Argentina where 10% of the population was poor; that number rose in 2001 to 50% and now hovers around 30%. While some countries have higher levels of absolute poverty, Escude emphasized that none have experienced such growth from limited to widespread poverty in the way that Argentina has. Escude noted the region's high concentration of wealth was one of the biggest problems. UN Economic Comission for Latin America (ECLAC) Director Bernando Kosakoff agreed that Latin America needs to generate wealth, and reiterated that the main challenge for the region is addressing the unequal distribution of income. Economic analyst Rogelio Frigerio pointed out that some leaders have employed populist rhetoric but still play by democratic rules of the game. These "realistic populists," he predicted, would fare better than their counterparts with more authoritarian tendencies. ¶4. (SBU) Former Ambassador to the United Nations Arnoldo Listre noted that it was important to recognize there had been positive changes in the Southern Cone, and specifically cited the very good relations between Argentina, Brazil, and Chile as a new and positive development that has contributed to regional stability. Mercosur, he said, had prevented cross-border disputes from leading to larger political-military confrontations in the Southern Cone just as effectively as the European Union had in Europe. Brazilian Ambassador Mauro Vieira added the relationship between Argentina and Brazil was economically very strong and of considerable strategic importance for Brazil. He emphasized the importance of multilateralism, and noted that Brazil shares borders with all countries in South America except Chile and Ecuador. Vieira insisted that trade agreements with Mercosur had to be with the bloc, and not with individual countries. Regional Solidarity -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Director of the Institute of International Commerce at the BankBoston Foundation Felix Pena emphasized the importance of identifying areas for regional cooperation. He criticized U.S. policy in the region for not unequivocally endorsing regional integration schemes like Mercosur. Pena specifically cited the economy, energy, and narcotrafficking as areas to explore. He said it was difficult to understand the region as one because of each country's individual history. Frigerio disagreed on regional solidarity, arguing that the region was dividing more than uniting, especially in terms of macroeconomic policies. On the subject of economy, Escude claimed that Latin America had signed many free trade agreements, but not ratified many of them. He observed that the most successful thing the region has been able to achieve is avoiding conflicts that develop into war. U.S.-South America -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Colombian Ambassador to Argentina Jaime Bermudez-Merizalde said the key to a strong bilateral relationship was expanding ties further than the military and security realm and focusing on initiatives with social impact. Bermudez said that it was precisely the populists' focus on social issues that helped them win elections. He suggested the U.S. work on programs to combat the populists' social discourse, and to seek to broaden its message and dialogue beyond elites. Kiguel said that opening the U.S. economy to Latin America would be interpreted as a concrete effort to improve relations. Listre said there was no strategic threat to the United States in the region and because of this the U.S. would not prioritize Latin America in its foreign policy. Listre urged ratification of the free trade agreement with Colombia and warned that failing to do so would send a bad message to the region as Colombia was the U.S.'s closest friend: what you do will be read as how you treat your friends, he said. U.S.-Argentine Relations -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Pena said the challenge was to deepen the relationship between U.S. and Argentina which he said he thought was possible with work. President of the La Plata University Foundation Fernando Maurette said Argentina's political parties exist nominally, but they lack the spirit and values you need in a participatory democracy and "do not exist" in the same way that they do in the United States and Europe. He said that U.S. legislators should reach out more often to their counterparts in the region, claiming that Argentine legislators conversed frequently with counterparts in France, Great Britain, and Brazil, but not with those in the United States. This kind of interaction can help strengthen Argentina's democracy and bilateral relations. Maurette pointed out new actors were emerging in the regional sphere, like China, who have expanded their role in the region's defense and energy arenas. Kosakoff mentioned that American businesses participate in the Argentine economy but aren't provided many incentives to integrate fully into the economy. We need to treat them as partners in our development. He felt U.S. companies could play a bigger positive role in Argentina's development. The Ambassador noted many U.S. companies are eager to be more active participants in Argentina's development and have very good CSR programs to help local communities. Paraguay -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Pena brought up the case of President-elect Fernando Lugo in Paraguay and said that the region -- and the United States -- had to help him succeed in his efforts to forge a moderate leftist path, following the examples of countries like Chile and Uruguay. Senator Dodd asked Vieira what Lula thought of Lugo, and Vieira replied that Lula wants to collaborate and sees the relationship with Paraguay as important. Inflation, Inflation, Inflation -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Senator Dodd asked the guests what were some of the problems facing Argentina today. Frigerio replied that inflation was destroying the economy and attacking a pillar of the economy. Kiguel said that inflation was officially reported at 8%, but in fact was at least 20-25%. He said that burgeoning inflation has had two serious effects -- it has hurt people's purchasing power because the salaries can't keep up with inflation, and it has destroyed access to credit. He said this was a serious problem. Kosakoff said that inflation was hurting investment because investors don't know what will happen. The government needs to resolve these problems -- specifically energy, inflation, and infrastructure -- to head off a major crisis. Farmers -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Dodd asked whether the GOA would reach an agreement with the striking agricultural sector. Kosakoff said the burgeoning global demand would maintain upward pressure on food prices. The question is how to generate more capacity. Argentina can be a player, and the government can resolve the situation without bringing the country to another crisis. Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The commentators were cautiously hopeful about the future of U.S. relations with Latin America. Their emphasis on regional solidarity tended towards the Southern Cone and Mercosur countries. Most were pessimistic about Argentina's internal problems, which one guest argued were not so large they could not be fixed, but their solutions required political will and consensus which has heretofore been absent. ¶12. (U) This cable was cleared by the codel after departure. WAYNE