MEDIA REACTION; US-ARGENTINE TIES; COLOMBIAN HOSTAGE

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000073 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; US-ARGENTINE TIES; COLOMBIAN HOSTAGE RELEASE OPERATION; US SUBPRIME CRISIS IMPACT ON ARGENTINA; 01/22/08 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Weekend international stories are related to the implications of the US-Argentine incident; the current status of the rebellion method in the aftermath of the Colombian hostage release operation; and the impact of the US sub prime crisis on Argentina's economy. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS - "Among clamors and the succulent K(irchners)' patrimony" Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed piece by columnist Fernando Laborda, who writes (01/20) "... President Cristina Kirchner is somewhat calmer over what may happen in Miami regarding the implications of the suitcase gate. The Argentine Government now expects to put the country's ties to the US on a safe track again, which the authorities themselves contributed to impairing... "On the road to easing tension, now there is speculation that the restrictions imposed by the Argentine Government on US Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne's agenda (which went down so badly in Washington) could be lifted... "The Government also expects to make some progress on the approval of the appointment of the Argentine Ambassador to Washington, Hector Timerman. This should not be at risk bearing in mind that, after all, Argentina is not included among the US foreign policy top priorities. Our little strategic importance should not justify a confrontation with the US, which currently has to tackle some other problems." - "US-Argentine thaw" Leading "Clarin" carries an opinion piece by political columnist Julio Blanck, who writes (01/19) "US Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne's public reappearance at a ceremony in homage to Raoul Wallenberg, a Swedish diplomat who helped many Jews during the Second World War, could be understood as the first sign of a thaw in the US-Argentine relationship... "The (Argentine) Government, which expects the approval of Hector Timerman's appointment as the new Argentine Ambassador to the US, prefers to downplay the issue, perhaps because it does not want to appear as backtracking. "Cristina Kirchner has always wanted to have a closer relationship to the US than her husband did... She held meetings with hyperactive Ambassador Wayne before taking office while Nestor Kirchner never met with him while in office. "Truly enough, circumstances many times change the leaders' wishes. And the Argentine Government's closeness to Hugo Chavez in the FARC hostage release operation contributed to an unwanted delay in the US-Argentine thaw." - "Colombia - the continuation of war by some other means" Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," writes an op-ed piece (01/19) "The FARC hostage release operation left a provocative enigma - whether the rebellion method is definitely over... "There is some prevailing inclination to simplify the Colombian confrontation between a criminal group and the rule of law. However, neither the small ELN nor the more organized FARC are drug cartels exclusively devoted to the production and trade of drugs. The issue is more complicated than this... "... The Colombian guerrilla is some faulty consequence of the bloody wars waged between liberals and conservatives during the first half of the 20th century, but even more sordid that this, it is an outcome of the reiterated murder of any ideological position challenging the power of those two political parties... "... The kidnapping of a group of tourists just a few hours after the release of Clara Rojas and Consuelo Gonzalez (if this was performed by the FARC at all, as claimed by the Colombian Government) seems to indicate some inward rupture between those who would agree to some historical opening sponsored by Cuba and Venezuela and those guerrillas who are reluctant to such an opening - not an emphasis on the wrong strategy." - "Rocked or rock" Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" (01/22) editorializes "Yesterday's four percent fall in the Merval share index comes immediately on top of a general consensus among economic experts here... in the last few days that Argentina is largely immune from the global economic upheavals sparked by the sub prime crisis in the US... "Apart from Argentina's fiscal solidity and the point that Argentina's cash-down housing culture frees it from the sub prime vulnerability which is the most visible cause of the US crisis..., this assumption of Argentine immunity is basically grounded in faith in continually strong commodity prices. But two vital factors needed to be added to the equation, one of which undermines this argument and the other reinforces it. Those who trust in sturdy commodity prices overlook the fact that the foreign exchange to pay them does not ultimately come from Asia but from the developed world - fully half of Chinese exports go to the US, the EU and Japan, thus making these commodity prices ultimately US-dependent... The assumption that current commodity price levels can survive a US recession is thus open to question even if it is also true that the roots of Asia's growth are probably more demographic than cyclical." 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