MEDIA REACTION; US ELECTION CAMPAIGN; ARGENTINA'S VOTE

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000608 STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; US ELECTION CAMPAIGN; ARGENTINA'S VOTE AGAINST THE IMF; LULA/CHAVEZ/BUSH; 05/07/08 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Today's local international stories are focused on new developments in the Democratic primaries; Argentina's vote against IMF initiatives; and Lula da Silva's "meddling" in the confrontation between Hugo Chavez and the US. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS - Obama and Hillary cannot break their tie" Hugo Alconada Mon, daily-of-record "La Nacion's" Washington-based correspondent, comments (05/07) "The last big night of the Democratic primaries ended in the same way it began - with Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton in confrontation and without having inflicted a decisive blow to the other, which could lead them to the nomination... "... Now, the two will focus on West Virginia next Tuesday. Their competition will continue through June 3, when primary elections will end and a period will start during which some Democratic leaders expect one of the two competitors to step down before the August convention. "... Last night's results revealed that Obama could be some 100 delegates below the necessary number required, while the New York senator could be 250 (delegates) away... "... The local economic crisis turned out to be the most important issue in both Indiana and North Carolina (66%),surpassing the issue over the war in Iraq (20%9),delayed immigration reform, the profound problems posed by the medical care or global warming... "... In the case of Obama, the question is whether he would be able to win in November, bearing in mind that during the last eight weeks (and with so much in his favor) he was not able to get rid of Hillary, he lost in Pennsylvania and has not been able to capture the white and Hispanic vote. Meanwhile, in Hillary's case, there are new doubts given that her negative image was reinforced among a large segment of the electorate and that she also has to overcome a very steep slide." - "A new anti-IMF league - Argentina goes with Zimbabwe, Angola and Laos" Pablo Wende, columnist of business-financial "Ambito Financiero," writes (05/07) "Argentina is on its way to making up a new league of countries, which is made up of those countries that oppose any IMF initiative without caring too much about the issue. The day before �A;yesterday, the country took a new step in this direction by voting against a new IMF initiative aimed at managing its investments. 176 countries voted in favor of it. Only a 'select' group voted against it - Zimbabwe (harassed by hyperinflation and charges of all kinds against its old dictator Robert Mugabe),Laos, Turkmenistan, Angola and Argentina are the members of this group. "At this point, one can already see a line of behavior - just one week ago, the Argentine Government also voted against the change in the voting structure at the IMF. "... The Argentine position triggered irritation at the IMF, particularly in its head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who, in an unusual gesture, attended President Cristina Kirchner's inauguration ceremony last December 10. Nevertheless, the IMF is unlikely to remain idle. For the time being, it has already made it known that the IMF will not make any effort to help Argentina in negotiating its Paris Club debt, as Strauss-Kahn had promised. "What was most striking to Washington was Argentina's changing position in a matter of days and, in some cases, in a matter of hours." - "Lula is revealed to have attempted to moderate the confrontation between Chavez and Bush" Eleonora Gosman, leading "Clarin's" Sao Paulo-based correspondent, writes (05/07) "It was common knowledge that the Brazilian right wing did not want Lula da Silva to take power in October 2002, and one could have imagined that it would have pressured even the military to avoid that 'danger.' However, it is not unusual that that same group asked the US to intervene in order to prevent the trade unionist from taking power. This was exactly what happened, according to what former Deputy Secretary of State for Latin America Otto Reich told the Brazilian economic newspaper 'Valor.' "He received such a request dring a short trip to Brazil by mid-2002... Reich added that 'there were also Brazilians who told us that Lula would be very dangerous.' However, by then, the Bush administration had some other urgent affairs to manage - the war in Afghanistan and the imminent military intervention in Iraq. Reich acknowledged that, due to these reasons, 'we decided not to get involved in Brazil; there was nothing to do.' "... There is another aspect to the story presented by 'Valor' newspaper - based on about 200 US government documents..., that demonstrate how Lula da Silva attempted to downplay an open confrontation between Hugo Chavez and the US." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE