ARGENTINE PRESIDENTQS APPROVAL RATINGS TAKE A HIT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000563 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINE PRESIDENTQS APPROVAL RATINGS TAKE A HIT ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Local papers report that President Cristina Fernandez de KirchnerQs approval ratings have fallen as low as 36% because of her handling of the rural sector strike and growing concerns over inflation and insecurity. The papers do not name specific polling firms, however, because most firms have delayed the official release of their latest numbers. To help boost numbers the government is reportedly trying to pull together a set of measures for a new QlaunchQ on ArgentinaQs May 25 independence day. They seem to be thinking of a new Qsocial pactQ as well as a hoped for solution to the rural strikes. New cabinet shifts are also still rumored. End summary. Anonymous Pollsters -------------- ¶2. (U) Approval ratings for President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) have been missing from most papers since the rural strike in mid-March. Polls are usually completed by the end of the month and released to local papers. This month, however, most polling firms officially have declined to publish numbers until after the agriculture sector crisis is over. The pollsters argue that their decision is methodologically based on the "high volatility" of public opinion in this situation. Some have spoken to newspapers on an "off-the-record" basis, but decline to release the polling data. Dailies "La Nacion" and "Critica" both reported that CFK's approval ratings are now as low as 36%, down somewhere between 8 and 10 points from March. Leading circulation daily "Clarin," citing Graciela Romer (the only pollster who has released data),had CFKQs approval at 41%. ¶3. (SBU) A more likely explanation for the lack of specific polling data is that the government does not want the low approval ratings publicly released. In the same vein, the pollsters seem to be holding data back because so many of them do business with the government. "La Nacion" reported on Sunday that out of 20 nationally recognized polling firms, 12 are regularly contracted by the government. Telam, the government news agency, predictably highlighted a poll that gave CFK an approval rating of 62.2%. Nestor's Shadow -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Nestor's approval rating has similarly suffered, but to a lesser degree than his wife's. "Critica," citing a government-commissioned poll, noted that NK has 47% approval ratings, which is also a notable drop from earlier numbers. One Embassy contact in the polling sector said that releasing NKQs approval ratings would be tricky, as the Casa Rosada was acutely aware of possible negative implications of Nestor maintaining numbers about 10 points higher than CFK and much closer to 50%. (Note: CFKQs approval has always been notably lower than NestorQs and she won 45% of the vote.) Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The lack of polling data has not caused much concern, as many local papers have widely reported "off-the-record" numbers on the decline in CFKQs approval ratings. CFK probably (and reasonably) expects that demonstrated progress with the rural sector will help restore her image. The government however, is reportedly planning a big QrelaunchQ around May 25 independence day which they would like to conclude a Qsocial pactQ among government, industry, banking, and unions, among other potential signs of life. New cabinet shifts also still are thought possible as part of the effort. End Comment.