ARGENTINA: NESTOR KIRCHNER POISED TO ASSUME

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000514

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2028
TAGS: PGOV AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: NESTOR KIRCHNER POISED TO ASSUME
JUSTICIALIST PARTY PRESIDENCY

REF: (A) BUENOS AIRES 0196 (B) BUENOS AIRES 415 AND
PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (U) Summary: It appears that former President Nestor
Kirchner (NK) and his list will run unopposed to lead
Argentina's Justicialist "Peronist" Party (PJ). April 19-20
news reports say PJ officials disqualified a second list of
candidates, indicating former president NK's slate will
likely win by acclamation. Kirchner's list for the party
leadership positions includes five vice-presidencies: Buenos
Aires governor and former Vice President Daniel Scioli, trade
union federation (CGT) leader Hugo Moyano, Chaco governor
Jorge Capitanich, Congressional Deputy Beatriz Rojkes (wife
of the Governor of Tucuman),and Entre Rios Governor Sergio
Uribarri. Kirchner appears to be methodically moving to turn
the PJ into a formidable electoral machine in advance of next
year's mid-term elections. End summary.

Who's In and Who's Out?
--------------


2. (SBU) Former president Nestor Kirchner (NK) presented,
just before the close of the April 18 deadline, his slate for
the leadership positions of Argentina's Justicialist
"Peronist" party (PJ),headed by himself. He also nominated
seven governors (Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli, Chubut
Governor Mario Das Neves, Capitanich, and Entre Rios Governor
Sergio Uribarri for vice-presidencies, and Governor of Salta
Juan Uturbey for Party Secretary of the Interior, San Juan
Governor Jose Luis Gioja for Party Secretary of Organization,
and Mendoza Governor Celso Jaque for Party Treasurer) to
party positions, an acknowledgement of the political weight
of provincial leaders. Fissures started appearing between
the administration and some of the governors during the
recent rural strikes. NK's incorporation of these governors
is tactical -- he included PJ governors from some of the most
important provinces to re-energize the national scope of the
party and to deflect criticism that surfaced during the rural
strikes.


3. (C) The biggest surprise was Kirchner's inclusion of
Chubut governor Mario Das Neves for the position of Secretary
of Party Coordination. Das Neves recently made headlines
with his public criticism of Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez
(who is also on the list as candidate for Party Secretary
General) for his handling of the rural sector strikes (ref
B). The Kirchners do not brook much criticism of their inner
circle, let alone public criticism, so much of the press
concluded that Das Neves had incurred the Kirchners' wrath.
The inclusion of Das Neves on Kirchner's slate suggests,
however, that he is no longer on the outs, if he ever was.
(A couple of pundits had posited that Das Neves launched his
public criticism of Alberto Fernandez at the behest of Nestor
Kirchner, not in defiance of him. Das Neves told the
Ambassador last week that he just didn't want to see too much
power in Alberto Fernandez's hands, but that all was okay
now.) Pundits were divided over how to interpret the party
position (Secretary General) offered to Alberto Fernandez,
but most interpreted it as a vote of confidence for the
beleaguered Cabinet Chief.


4. (U) Notably absent from the Kirchner slate is the governor
of Cordoba (Argentina's second most important province) Juan
Schiaretti, who had also criticized the government's handling
of the agricultural strike. Schiaretti is only on the list
as a party member. Completely absent from the list is former
Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, who came in third place in
the 2007 elections as the candidate of the Radical-based UNA,
was not on the Kirchner slate despite their highly publicized
(and much criticized) reunion and rejoining of forces in
January. Lavagna had reportedly wanted a PJ vice-presidency
but was offered a secretariat position, which he refused.
(Lavagna subsequently wasted no time in asserting his
autonomy. April 20 newspapers aired his criticism of the
GOA's export taxes on agricultural exports and the Kirchner
administration's failure to contain inflation.)

Dissidents Dismissed
--------------


5. (U) NK's list did not go unchallenged at first --
dissident Peronists presented another list led by former
Senator and vice presidential candidate Hector Maya and
supported by San Luis governor Alberto Rodriguez-Saa. The
vice-presidential running mates included Daniel Basile,
Teresa Gonzalez Fernandez (ex-wife of Felipe Sola, the
previous governor of Buenos Aires),Olga Ruitort (ex-wife of
former Cordoba governor Juan Manuel de la Sota),Carlos
Dellepiane, San Juan's Senator Liliana Negre de Alonso, and
Horacio Alonso. On the evening of April 18, however, PJ

electoral authorities announced that Maya's list needed
66,000 more signatures to be valid. The list also lacked the
geographical distribution requirement of representatives from
five different districts. The dissident list's reported
failure to comply with the regulations will facilitate NK's
expected assumption as party president by acclamation.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Barring an unlikely challenge to the dismissal of the
dissident slate, NK is poised to be declared the winner of
the PJ presidency as early as April 22. The PJ remains the
most potent political brand in Argentina, largely because of
its identification with the Peronist movement. NK is working
with an eye towards the 2009 legislative elections,
determined to make them a show of Kirchner strength in order
to sustain his wife's administration. While NK is
methodically moving ahead to turn the PJ into a formidable
machine, the opposition shows little sign of responding in
kind. It remains fractious, disorganized, and marginalized.
End comment.
WAYNE