MEDIA REACTION; WAR IN IRAQ; CUBA; LATIN AMERICA; CHINA;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000395 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; WAR IN IRAQ; CUBA; LATIN AMERICA; CHINA; 03/31/08 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT The main international topics during last weekend were the role played by the US in the war in Iraq; the Cuban Government authorizing the sale of cell phones; Latin American handling of the crisis between Ecuador and Colombia; and China's contribution to world economic growth. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS - "Evaluation of an 'asymmetrical war'" Leading "Clarin" (03/31) editorializes "The war in Iraq shows its main players trapped in a spiral of violence without a way out... "... The USG justified its presence in Iraq with two arguments - the struggle against international terrorism and the establishment of a democratic peace in the Persian Gulf region. The outcome of the military campaign (which carries the specter of the Vietnam War) is at odds with both motivations. "As the US reinforced its intervention in Iraq, the climate of civil war has deepened... The main military power in the world has not been able to establish order and terrorist attacks have increased. "The assessment of war has impacted on the US society during this election campaign, and even though one should not expect drastic changes, like a withdrawal that could also unveil the US failure in Iraq, one can hope that consensus will increase on the serious mistake of having started the war and the need to respond in a different way to its consequences." - "New Havana's talking" Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" editorializes (03/31) "No technological innovation of recent times is more visible than the cell phone and less than six weeks after veteran leader Fidel Castro's departure from power, they have become the latest revolution in Cuba following a decree on Friday permitting their sale. "Until now mobile phones have been the privilege of Cuba's elite, foreigners and certain Cubans with foreign employees since their advent on the island in 1991... "With the average Cuban earning less than a dollar a day, there does not seem any scope for any rapid expansion but hundreds of thousands receive remittances from abroad and these could massively acquire the prized status symbol. "... Who will pick up the business? We have already seen Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim overtake Bill Gates in some estimates of the world's richest man... Slim's fortune is based on his firm grip on the cell phone market throughout the region - will Cuba be added to that empire (the last Latin American country to leave the Spanish empire also becoming the last to enter Slim's)? "But that, of course, presupposes a commercial revolution on a Communist island which runs on ration cards with free housing, education and health. The tiny cell phone might well end up spearheading that revolution..." - "The regional puzzle" Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by Natalio Botana, who writes (03/30) "... What seems to prevail in Latin America... is behavioral lack of proportion... "In Europe, it is quite clear that terrorist organizations, such as ETA, are outside of the EU. In Latin America, instead, this clarity is clouded and has unleashed two simultaneous storms - one took the war outside of Colombia to its jungle borders with Ecuador. The other one failed to implement the necessary guarantees to put terrorist insurgents at bay. "... Therefore, bewilderment is both political and social. What should one do vis-`-vis this scenario? There are several roads to take. The first is an overall confrontation leading to war beyond borders. In this regard, guerrillas who take refuge in another country to launch new attacks are as illegal as the armed actions from a Government in another sovereign territory, thereby violating the non-intervention principle. "The other roads are equally complex. At this point, it is obvious that Inter-American and regional institutions are not mere formal barriers that no one honors. This is the positive piece of information provided by the OAS mission on the border between Ecuador and Colombia... "The other possible road is taming Chavez by bringing Venezuela into Mercosur. Is this possible when the Venezuelan government rejects freedom of communication now that the SIP will hold its meeting in Caracas?" - "China, not the US, is the engine of the world" Jorge Castro, political analyst, writes an opinion piece for centrist "Perfil" newspaper (03/30) "The US economy accounts for 32% of world GDP while that of China accounts for 5.5%. However, the Chinese economy's contribution to world economic growth is significantly greater than that of the US (23% vis-`-vis 19% in 2007). "The main reason for this difference is that China's burst into international commodities trade has changed the nature of the world commodity market. Today China is the largest consumer of 4 of 5 major commodities, and, according to the International Energy Agency, regarding oil (in which it currently second to the US), China will be the largest consumer by 2010. "This means that all countries exporting commodities... are connected to the world economy and globalization mainly through the People's Republic, not the US." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE