RETURN TO NOWHERE: PARLIAMENT BEGINS ITS FALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000913 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2013 TAGS: PGOV HU SUBJECT: RETURN TO NOWHERE: PARLIAMENT BEGINS ITS FALL SESSION REF: BUDAPEST 899 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: P/E ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 1 OLIVE BRANCH; 0 NEW IDEAS ¶1. (U) Parliament reconvened on September 15, beginning its fall session with a dry session on a very rainy day in Budapest. ¶2. (SBU) Prime Minister Gyurcsany's opening remarks ) preceded by the usual walk-out by FIDESZ MPs - focused on his government's commitment to improving education and employment. In thirty-minute remarks interrupted only occasionally for applause from the MSzP ranks, Gyurcsany hailed Hungary's progress in becoming a "Western-oriented civil democracy," touting reduction of the budget deficit and improvement in the business climate. Visiting European Commission President Barroso also applauded the opening of the EU's Technical Innovation Center. ¶3. (SBU) Gyurcsany warned, however, against the risk of "radical solutions," noting his intention to table two pieces of legislation targeting those who employ violence motivated by political affiliation, ethnic identity, or lifestyle choice. ¶4. (SBU) The PM also extended an olive branch to his erstwhile coalition partners in the SzDSz, making clear the MSzP's commitment to pensioners but calling for the left to unite in Parliament and to "leave its differences for press conferences." Referring to their recent calls for less state involvement in the economy, however, he pointedly noted that he could not "recall any SzDSz ministers who volunteered to sacrifice their own budgets to reduce the role of the state." "GYURCSANY OR HELL" ¶5. (SBU) Responding for FIDESZ, Parliamentary Faction Leader Tibor Navracsics began by derisively listing the Gyurcsany government's many policy initiatives by name, daring the government to table its current tax plan for immediate debate (REFTEL). The Prime Minister, he charged, is trying to convince the public that after six years of Socialist government the only options are "Gyurcsany or hell." At the end of "another wasted year," the government can "only avoid elections: it cannot lead." ¶6. (SBU) In subsequent remarks, MDF Party President Ibolya David derided "government by talk show" and challenged all parties to support her call for the dissolution of Parliament. The Gyurcsany government, she argued, cannot regain its credibility but "just one vote" can begin to solve Hungary's problems. SzDSz President Gabor Fodor thanked Gyurcsany for responding to his request for an "action plan" but described the government's current agenda as "no foundation for the future." ¶7. (SBU) The vote on the dissolution of Parliament proved an anti-climax, breaking down essentially along party lines as the MSzP, the SzDSz and a handful of independents combined forces to vote the measure down by a margin of 204 ) 171. Press commentary has cast the vote as the result of a deal between the MSzP and the MDF, both of which want to force the SzDSz's hand with the threat of early elections. Although the vote failed, FIDESZ reps have indicated their intention to call another in November if the government's budget fails to pass, thus underscoring the stakes in the upcoming budget debate. COMMENT: SEEMS WE'VE TALKED LIKE THIS BEFORE ( ¶8. (C) Parliament's first session lived down to expectations. MPs ) as well as the small numbers of demonstrators outside the building - exhibited little energy. In a conversation during a break in discussion, a dispirited SzDSz MP Matyas Eorsi characterized the vote as "Kabuki theater," and another MP has submitted his resignation in protest of the party's current "immature" policies. Surveying the political landscape late last week, MSzP Parliamentary Faction Leader Ildiko Lendvai told the Ambassador and AmCham leaders that she is "cautiously optimistic" regarding the prospects for case-by-case cooperation with the SzDSz. She also expressed some hope regarding the passage of legislation on party finance reform this fall. She was more modest in her other predictions, however, commenting that "we've been clumsy (about reform) and now we must be quiet." Given Gyurcsany's focus on initiatives as detailed as the distribution of laptops to students, "small ball" appears to be the order of the day. BUDAPEST 00000913 002 OF 002 ¶9. (C) Parliament's return has also been colored by a breaking scandal involving an apparent eavesdropping campaign against MDF President Ibolya David allegedly organized by party rival Kornel Almassy but also implicating former Orban Chief of Staff Istvan Stumpf. Although Almassy has withdrawn his challenge to David's leadership of the party, we expect that the story will continue to circulate ) if not expand ) in the weeks ahead. If today's debut is any indication, there will be little substantive progress in Parliament to challenge this story for the public's attention. End Comment. Foley