RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS RE HUNGARIAN POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000904 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/I E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2013 TAGS: PINR PGOV HU SUBJECT: RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS RE HUNGARIAN POLITICS (C-RE8-01748) REF: SECSTATE 97692 Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Post's responses are keyed to Department's inquiries: A) From the context of the conversation, we read Navracsics' remarks re the impact of "strategic decisions" as referring to a negative public reaction to FIDESZ's efforts to articulate specific policy recommendations. We note that statements from FIDESZ officials re the potential revisitation of pension and other benefits have been seized on by the government and have resulted in appreciable downturns in the opposition's poll numbers. Agriculture Minister Graf has stated informally that "the opposition keeps saving us with their comments," and Gyurcsany confidante Klara Akots tells us that the opposition's talk of dissolving Parliament has reinforced the PM's position within the party. B) A broad range of professional and social contacts believe that the extreme right has succeeded in putting its agenda before the public over the past months. They are concerned that ideas once considered beyond the pale are now being granted a degree of equivalency and legitimacy by the public, and perceive that the center of the national debate has shifted. This may not lead automatically to support at the polls, but Political Scientist Zoltan Kiszelly cautions that we should not dismiss the appeal of JOBBIK/Magyar Garda in rural communities where non-Roma feel "threatened" by Roma. Although estimates of the far right's real support vary widely from Keri's estimate, there is a broad sense that they have established a degree of momentum. Some, like Navracsics, believe there is a low natural ceiling to their voter base, but former FM Martonyi notes that criticism of the far right has only increased their profile. C) The events of the past months, including the series of demonstrations by the far right and most particularly the uptick in their level of violence, has concerned many Hungarians. But it may have cowed some as well. Only five percent of respondents in a recent national poll expressed their willingness to attend a demonstration against extremism, and even centrist analysts such as Political Capital's Krisztian Szabados tell us that the government's continued unpopularity confers a degree of legitimacy on any opposition. At a time when Hungarians see their government as indifferent and incapable, the far right is offering "solutions" and some are willing to listen. D) Mesterhazy does not lack for ambition but he has given no indication that he is in an undue hurry. He knows that Gyurcsany's principal rivals are from the party's Old Guard, and that should stay his hand for now. But he also knows that the Socialists have a very weak farm system, and believes that he is ideally positioned for the long term. His next step is likely to be membership on the MSzP Party Praesidium. E) Mesterhazy was Gyurcsany's State Secretary in the Ministry of Youth and Sport and has a relationship with him that is candid if not personally close. He believes that Gyurcsany is impetuous, opaque, and ill-served by his staff. He has pressed the government to record some genuine accomplishments rather that continuing to overpromise and underdeliver - a pattern he believes has worn thin with the electorate. Mesterhazy is playing a significant role in the party's media efforts, and our sense is that his opinions do carry weight within the party, particularly with regard to foreign policy, where he is taking on the "American account." That strikes us as a good fit for a rising star within the party. Foley