RIDING THE RANGE AND MENDING FENCES: GYURCSANY'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000691 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2013 TAGS: PREL ENRG PGOV HU SUBJECT: RIDING THE RANGE AND MENDING FENCES: GYURCSANY'S TRIP TO CENTRAL ASIA Classified By: A/DCM ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) THE EASTERN APPROACHES ¶1. (C) The GoH is working to mend fences with the U.S. through a series of moves highlighted by Prime Minister Gyurcsany's trip to Central Asia July 7 ) 9. ¶2. (C) According to Foreign and Security Policy Advisor Karoly Banai, the trip was designed to demonstrate that Hungary is committed to "do more than talk about Nabucco." Indeed, Gyurcsany has used his stops in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to call publicly for another Nabucco Summit and to emphasize the importance of Central Asian suppliers in making the project a reality. ¶3. (C) Where the PM would go, Banai emphasized, is as significant as where he would not. Gyurcsany had "readily agreed" with his recommendation that the trip not include a stop in Kazakhstan and the "political liability" of "yet another meeting with Putin" at a CSIS event there. (Note: Banai added that a separate, bilateral trip to Kazakhstan is likely in the fall. His goal, however, is to combine the trip with a stop in Georgia to show support for Tbilisi's NATO aspirations. End Note.) ¶4. (C) Though Banai hopes that "the visit will speak for itself," he outlined the basic goal as underscoring Hungary's readiness to "dedicate assets to make Nabucco happen." Acknowledging that "sequencing is important" and that Nabucco is "a very important security priority," Banai concluded that "we're not rushing South Stream ) we want to rush Nabucco." Banai's predecessor - and close Gyurcsany friend - Klara Akots underscored the same message to us on July 9, commenting that "we hope Washington notices how far the Prime Minister is going to explore for gas." CRITICISM FROM WITHIN THE MSZP; ENTHUSIASM FROM THE PRIME MINISTER ¶5. (C) But even those who agree with the priority on Nabucco have been privately critical of the trip. MSzP MP Vilmos Szabo, Deputy Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, tells us off-line that the trip was poorly timed, coming "days after Medvedev had been to the region to buy up all the gas." A loyal party soldier, Szabo nonetheless questioned Gyurcsany's credibility as host of a Nabucco Summit, citing the trip as "yet another idea no one could talk the PM out of." 
GYURCSANY DISCOVERS GAS ¶6. (C) Szabo's reservations notwithstanding, Gyurcsany returned from the trip - including a 6 hour meeting with Turkmen President Berdimuhamedow - convinced that "the gas is there." As he told Ambassador Foley in a brief discussion July 10, however, he believes the lack of political will represents a greater challenge than the "technical questions." Media outlets here, for example, report that Berdimuhamedow had made clear that Nabucco is "not a priority for his country" and had made "no commitments" to supply it. Nonetheless, Gyurcsany confirmed his offer to hold a "Nabucco Summit" at the Heads of Government level next summer, to include all supplier nations, consortium members, and the EU and U.S. According to Gyurcsany, the leaders of both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan agreed to participate. The Prime Minister also promised to circulate a written summary of his trip to us and to all Nabucco consortium members. "HARMONY IS OUR POLICY" ¶7. (C) The desire to put our bilateral relationship back on track also featured prominently in the MFA's Chiefs of Mission conference last week. In a meeting with Ambassador Foley July 8, State Secretary Laszlo Varkonyi noted that Foreign Minister Goncz had told the assembled Ambassadors that "America is our number one ally." While acknowledging that "great powers and small countries will have different perspectives on issues like energy," Varkonyi emphasized that "our policy is total harmony with the United States." Toward that end, he had encouraged all Hungarian ambassadors to take a more activist posture on democracy promotion efforts consistent with our Freedom Agenda. ¶8. (C) Varkonyi also encouraged us to "maintain seamless consultations" through our own election season. He noted Foreign Minister Goncz's interest in a "low-key" visit to BUDAPEST 00000691 002 OF 002 Washington on the margins of the UNGA, and expressed his own desire for Washington consultations on Iraq and the Broader Middle East, Afghanistan, Cuba, and Democracy Promotion in the fall. The GoH's Nabucco Ambassador, Mihalj Bayer, would also like to make another trip to Washington. ACCENTUATING THE POSITIVE, ILLUMINATING THE NEGATIVE ¶9. (C) The GoH is clearly trying to regain a degree of its credibility with Washington. Although Varkonyi emphasized that "we professionals must avoid domestic politics," even his senior staff privately lament the public focus on the strain in our relationship. The MFA's Americas Director noted at the July 4th reception that he is "losing sleep" over a recent spate of articles in the press questioning Hungary's fundamental orientation. By contrast, Szabo and others within the MSzP believe that Gyurcsany actually feels more confident of his position in the near term, having demonstrated that minority government can work in practice. ¶10. (C) Comment: Gyurcsany's trip is a significant ) if largely symbolic ) step to answer the very public questions regarding Hungary's foreign policy. We should give due recognition to the GoH's efforts, particularly the offer to host another Nabucco Summit. In doing so, however, we should make clear that the familiar pattern of public commitment and private disappointment cannot continue. In particular, we should continue to encourage the GoH to improve its transparency with regards to South Stream. We have no doubt that work is continuing on this front, and have made the point that our relationship can withstand candid discussion better than it can unpleasant surprises. End comment. ¶11. (U) Post welcomes any insights on the Gyurcsany trip from Embassies Baku and Ashgabat. Foley