LONELY NEAR THE TOP: PRIME MINISTER'S FOREIGN

S E C R E T BUDAPEST 000268 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR ACTING UNDER SECRETARY FRIED, EUR/NCE, EUR DAS BRYZA AND DAS GARBER; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV HU SUBJECT: LONELY NEAR THE TOP: PRIME MINISTER'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR ON HUNGARY'S RUSSIA POLICY REF: BUDAPEST 225 Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 1.(S) Summary: Speaking off-line during a March 9 meeting with Ambassador Foley, the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor recapped his visit to Washington, reiterated PM Gyurcsany's commitment to South Stream, but expressed his own reservations regarding the GoH's "rush" to join the project. Ambassador Banai criticized the lack of "Hungarian, European, or Western policy" that would "set limits for Russia," but confided that he is "alone" in his views within the Prime Ministry. END Summary. PRIME MINISTER COMMITTED TO SOUTH STREAM ... ¶2. (C) Recapping his recent trip to Washington, Ambassador Banai expressed his appreciation for Post's support and for Assistant Secretary Fried and DAS Bryza and DAS Garber's time. He noted that Prime Minister Gyurcsany believes "South Stream is a step forward" and emphasized his desire and his readiness to "keep making the case to other American interlocutors." Banai confirmed that the PM would drop by his own meeting with Congressman Wexler next week. ¶3. (C) In response to the Ambassador's expression of concern regarding how the USG's views on South Stream had been conveyed, Banai commented that he believed his characterization of his meetings had been "accurate if not complete." He recognized that we would make clear our position, but described his bottom line from the trip as "although we do not agree on all points, this was ultimately our sovereign decision." Ambassador Foley underscored our interest in the issue of energy security and our concern about how our views were characterized by others. While we want to put this issue behind us, we will need to address the "daylight" between his characterizations and our policy. AND PRIME MINISTER'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR CONCERNED ¶4. (S) Making clear that he was speaking strictly "without a mandate," Banai voiced serious personal concerns regarding the lack of a "Hungarian, European, or Western strategy on Russia." "Russia and the EU have only a technical relationship," he continued, while individual capitals continue to "play games with Moscow" to the detriment of their own allies. "Russia knows what it wants," he continued, "no more 'colorful revolutions' nearby and maximum leverage from its energy resources." By contrast, the West has "set no limits on Russia and no rules for Russia." ¶5. (S) He made no exceptions and no excuses for Hungary, criticizing their own "rush toward South Stream" and the lack of a "common denominator" among the parties. Describing the South Stream agreement as "a sovereign decision ( and a sovereign mistake," he professed his own personal support for Nabucco and for "concrete actions to make that clear." ¶6. (S) But Banai sees few allies within the GoH. Concluding "in triple brackets," he commented that "I am alone in making these arguments ( and I don't make the decisions." OUT OF STEP AND OUTNUMBERED ¶7. (S) Comment: Returning from a Washington trip he knows did not go well, Banai was clearer than he has ever been regarding his reservations on Russia policy in general and on South Stream in particular. Although his personal credibility is damaged after his admitted selectivity in discussing Washington's views and his government's last-minute hesitation on Kosovo (septel),we do believe his comment that his views are badly out of step ) and badly outnumbered ) in the Prime Ministry. Maintaining our relationship with Banai in the aftermath of his trip is a manageable problem; moving forward with the Gyurcsany government in light of what he describes as an entirely different strategic perspective is an entirely different order of magnitude. END Comment. FOLEY