HUNGARY PLANNING EXPANSION OF NUCLEAR ENERGY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 BUDAPEST 001227 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR ISN/NESS MHUMPHREY, EUR/FO JGARBER AND MBRYZA, EUR/CE JLAMORE, EUR/ERA, EEB/FO, OES/EGC, PLEASE PASS TO NSC ASTERLING, COMMERCE DEPARTMENT SLOPP E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG TRGY BEXP BTIO KGHG US RS FR HU SUBJECT: HUNGARY PLANNING EXPANSION OF NUCLEAR ENERGY CAPACITY REF: STATE 127468 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The probable expansion of the Hungarian nuclear power sector offers significant opportunities to U.S. firms engaged in nuclear-related manufacturing and services. Hungary is currently considering building one or two new nuclear reactor units at the Paks nuclear plant. There is strong political consensus in Hungary behind nuclear energy, which represents a clean, cheap energy source and limits further dependence on Russian gas. Russian firms, however, dominate Hungary's nuclear sector and, along with a variety of Western European and Asian firms, are likely to present stiff competition in any upcoming tenders related to the expansion of nuclear energy in Hungary. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) In response to the Civil Nuclear Working Group's request for information on Hungary's plan to expand nuclear energy, EconOffs spoke with Dr. Joszef Ronaky, Director General of the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority, Dr. Miklos Poos, Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Transport, Telecommunication, and Energy, and Dr. Attila Aszodi, Director of the Institute of Nuclear Techniques at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics and Chairman of the Committee on Energetics at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. OVERVIEW OF CIVIL NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM ¶3. (U) Hungary has one nuclear power plant comprising four reactor units of an upgraded pressurized water VVER-440/V-213 Soviet design. The four units were brought into service in 1982, 1984, 1986, and 1987, respectively, each with a useful life of 30 years. The Paks nuclear power plant generated approximately 14,677 GWh of power in 2007, producing approximately 40 percent of the country's electricity. The four blocks underwent an extensive safety upgrade that was completed in 2002, and Russia's Atomstroyexport is currently upgrading the plant's capacity from 440MW to 500MW per reactor, with projected completion in 2009. In 2005, the Hungarian Parliament approved a plan to extend Paks' operating life by twenty years. According to Dr. Ronaky, the Hungarians have been working with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to apply U.S. experience toward the Paks lifetime �0A;extension, particularly with regard to regulatory and safety issues. ¶4. (U) Hungary's state-owned electric utility, Hungarian Power Companies (MVM),is the primary shareholder in the Paks nuclear plant. Local municipalities own a few shares and the GoH retains a "golden share" in the power plant. The GoH is currently considering a partial privatization of MVM but has indicated that it would retain state ownership of Paks due to its strategic importance. ¶5. (U) Strong political consensus exists in Hungary in favor of nuclear power generation. A nationwide poll conducted in 2007 showed 75 percent in favor of the Paks plant's operation and 22 percent opposed to it. The parliamentary resolution to extend Paks' operating life received nearly 97 percent support and in the same nationwide poll, 60 percent supported its lifetime extension and 30 percent opposed it. ¶6. (U) Drs. Ronaky, Poos, and Aszodi are in agreement that Hungary's plans to expand its use of nuclear energy are based primarily on energy security, climate change, and cost considerations. Hungarian leaders tend to view nuclear energy as an important means of satisfying the country's growing demand for electricity without deepening its already substantial dependence on Russian gas. Moreover, Paks already represents the cheapest source of electricity for Hungary and nuclear power provides a clean, cost-effective alternative to fossil fuels as Hungary strives to comply with EU-mandated emission reduction targets. BUDAPEST 00001227 002 OF 005 NUCLEAR POWER EXPANSION ¶7. (U) In April 2008, the Hungarian Parliament in its medium-term energy policy framework took the initial legal step toward expanding Hungary's nuclear power generation capacity when it formally requested that the GoH explore the possibility of constructing new nuclear reactor units. According to Dr. Poos, the GoH will submit its findings to Parliament in the spring of 2009, at which point Parliament will most likely give a green light for a detailed feasibility study. The capacity expansion will most likely take place at Paks, which was originally built to accommodate six reactors. Hungary will be seeking "third generation" reactors, which are safer, faster to construct, and thus easier to finance. Dr. Aszodi expects Hungary to prefer pressurized water reactors for the new blocks, based on its experience with this technology at Paks, although light water or boiling water reactors might also be considered. He suggested the Russian VVR-1000, the Westinghouse EP-1000, and the Mitsubishi/Areva Atmea 1 as likely 1000MW candidates. Alternatively, Hungary could purchase a single 1500MW reactor made by Mitsubishi and retain a site at Paks for future expansion. Aszodi also mentioned GE, Toshiba, Hitachi, Siemens, and firms from South Korea and China as likely competitors. ¶8. (U) According to Dr. Poos, it is too early in the process to discuss financing for the Paks expansion and what, if any, role the GoH might assume. Given the plant's profitability, he seemed confident that Paks could arrange bank financing on its own, though he did not discount the possibility that government guarantees might provide additional support. URANIUM MINING ¶9. (U) Hungary's only uranium mine, near Pecs, was closed in the early 1990s due to high production costs. Based on revived interest in nuclear energy throughout Europe, however, Australia's WildHorse Energy has obtained permits to conduct exploration in the area. Dr. Aszodi expects it will take several years before any resources are extracted and Dr. Ronaky believes Hungary's uranium mining potential to be relatively small scale. NUCLEAR FUEL SUPPLY, STORAGE ¶10. (SBU) Hungary obtains fuel for the Paks plant under a long-term agreement with the Russian firm TVEL. According to Dr. Poos, however, part of Hungary's motivation to expand its nuclear sector lies in the relative ease of diversifying the fuel source. In fact, Paks, together with Finland's Loviisa nuclear power plant, successfully tested fuel from British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL)/Westinghouse at a test fuel assembly at Loviisa, but the fuels have not yet been used at Paks. Dr. Aszodi mentioned problems the Czech Temelin nuclear plant had experienced with Westinghouse fuel as a probable factor, but also alluded to "the economic and political game" behind most energy-related decisions in Hungary. ¶11. (U) In the 1990s, Paks installed a modular dry storage facility for intermediate storage--up to 50 years--of spent fuel. The facility was designed by the British company GEC Alsthom. The Public Agency for Radioactive Waste Management (PURAM),in cooperation with Belgium's Tractebel Engineering, operates the facility with revenues from the State Nuclear Fund, which channels a portion of Paks' operating revenue into spent fuel storage, final disposition of low-level radioactive material, and the eventual decommissioning of the plant. A low and intermediate-level waste disposal site went into service in 2008 near the southern Hungarian town of Bataapati. ¶12. (U) Hungary is conducting exploration in the southern part of the country for a deep geological site for long-term disposal of high-level waste and has located a potential BUDAPEST 00001227 003 OF 005 formation near Boda, in the Mecsek mountains, but has not yet determined if it will be of sufficient scale. According to Dr. Aszodi, Hungary needs to begin harvesting still-useable fissionable material from its nuclear waste before burying it, as only about 5 percent of the spent fuel is truly hazardous waste. NUCLEAR REGULATORY AUTHORITY ¶13. (U) The Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority (HAEA) grants all licenses for the construction, modificatin, and operation of Hungary's nuclear facilities and retains full power to inspect and, if necessary, fine or shut down these installations. The HAEA is a government office that is accountable to the Prime Minister's Office. The Minister of Transport, Communication, and Energy, also responsible for energy sector development, serves as intermediary between the HAEA and the GoH. Although the HAEA lacks legal independence, according to Dr. Ronaky, it enjoys de facto independence in the execution of its functions as the Ministry is legally prohibited from giving the HAEA orders on issues related to nuclear safety and the HAEA's decisions can only be overridden by court decision. Moreover, the HAEA is almost entirely self-financed; the fees it earns for its licensing and inspection activities generate more than 90 percent of its budget, which by law cannot be diverted to any other government agency. There are currently about 80 employees at the HAEA, but this number is likely to increase significantly as Hungary pursues expansion of its nuclear power sector. NUCLEAR LIABILITY REGIME ¶14. (U) Hungary is a party to a number of international conventions governing nuclear safety and liability in the event of an accident. These include the Vienna Convention and the Joint Protocol on Third Party Liability, the Convention on Nuclear Safety, the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management, the Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident, and the Convention on Assistance in the case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency. Hungary's domestic nuclear liability law is covered by the Atomic Energy Act, which implements the Vienna Convention. The amount of liability for nuclear damage is set at 100 million Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) in case of an incident in a nuclear power plant and at 5 million SDRs in case of an incident during transport. This compensation may be supplemented by a contribution from the GoH amounting to 250 million SDRs. (Note: An SDR is an international reserve asset based on a basket of key currencies. As of December 2008, 1 SDR is worth approximately 1.48 USD. End note.) DOMESTIC NUCLEAR MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES CAPACITY ¶15. (U) Hungary does not have a domestic nuclear manufacturing base. Hungarian firms supply various generators, heat exchangers, and turbines and several Hungarian nuclear services and engineering firms support operations at the Paks facility, but the core nuclear technology is imported. NUCLEAR WORKFORCE ¶16. (U) Hungary's nuclear workforce has a high degree of expertise based on the country's long history with nuclear energy and its strong academic training programs in nuclear engineering. The Institute of Nuclear Techniques at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics has an on-site research reactor and maintains close cooperation with Paks. The Hungarian Academy of Sciences operates a separate research reactor at Csilleberc, near Budapest, through its Central Physics Research Institute. A particle accelerator at the Institute of Nuclear Research in Debrecen further enhances research efforts in Hungary. BUDAPEST 00001227 004 OF 005 ¶17. (U) Hungary is likely to face a tight market for nuclear professionals, however, and could have to look abroad to fill some staffing vacancies as it seeks additional personnel at Paks and at the HAEA to support the Paks lifetime extension and expansion. According to Dr. Ronaky, Hungary's core nuclear-trained workforce is aging and has not been sufficiently replaced by a new generation of engineers and experts as business, law, and the humanities tended to attract greater numbers of students than scientific and technical fields after 1989. He believes the situation is now improving as students recognize the long-term opportunities in this field, particularly as the government starts to publicize plans for further investment in nuclear power. Dr. Aszodi emphasized the international growth in the nuclear power industry and resulting competition for this highly-trained, specialized, increasingly-international workforce. He pointed out that the French nuclear industry alone expects to create 1300 new jobs per year for the next four years and he expects Hungary will have to compete with other countries for its own nuclear-trained workers. U.S. COMPANIES LIKELY TO FACE STIFF FOREIGN COMPETITION ¶18. (SBU) The potential expansion of Hungary's nuclear power sector presents numerous opportunities for U.S. firms engaged in nuclear-related manufacturing and services, but potential players should anticipate intense competition from a variety of Russian, West European, and Asian firms vying for a piece of this business. According to Dr. Poos, there will be an open tender process for the Paks expansion, probably sometime between 2010-2012 in order for the new units to become operational by 2025. He suspects Russian firms will retain an advantage in competing for the Paks plant expansion because the existing plant was built with Russian technology and uses Russian-supplied fuel. EU firms, however, could have a cost advantage due to their ability to provide goods and services duty-free. Dr. Poos also noted that Hungary's "strategic partnership" with France, which encompasses nuclear cooperation, could benefit French competitors; a French firm performed the safety upgrade at Paks. ¶19. (SBU) Dr. Aszodi expects a Russian firm to perform the work on the Paks lifetime extension, which is currently still in the planning stages. Along with the lifetime extension, Dr. Aszodi believes that Paks will probably need a new instrumentation and control system. Germany's Siemens and France's Areva provide the technology and maintenance for the current system, but Aszodi believes this might present a potential opportunity for a U.S. firm, although no plans for such an upgrade have yet been made public. ¶20. (SBU) Dr. Poos assured us that politics will not play a role in determining the outcomes of the tenders for Hungary's nuclear sector expansion, but that they will be decided based on the objective criteria of proposal quality and price. Moreover, he told us the tender offers would be issued either by MVM or by Paks rather than by the government, and that the issuer would determine the winner. However, he also hinted further at the prospect of Russia's continued dominance of Hungary's energy sector when he said "cooperation with the Russians is relatively good... more than relatively good." Dr. Aszodi was perhaps a bit more blunt when he posited that the tenders will be open to all, but they will become a "political game." MPs from the governing Socialist party tell us they would very much like to see American firms compete for--and win--the Paks expansion contract, but they caution that a Russian offer would likely include provisions for the disposal of spent fuel. ¶21. (SBU) COMMENT: Given the strategic importance of the Paks nuclear plant and the high stakes involved in its expansion, both for Hungary and for potential suppliers, we tend to agree more with Dr. Aszodi that the GoH is almost certain to play a role in deciding the outcome of the tender BUDAPEST 00001227 005 OF 005 and that factors beyond construction specifications and costs will influence the final decision. We accordingly recommend engagement with the GoH in parallel actions by interested American corporations. END COMMENT. Foley