GOH FINALIZING PLANS FOR NABUCCO SUMMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUDAPEST 001188 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/FO JGARBER AND MBRYZA, EUR/CE, EUR/RUS, EUR/ERA, EEB/FO, PLEASE PASS TO NSC ASTERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018 TAGS: ENRG ECON EPET PGOV HU SUBJECT: GOH FINALIZING PLANS FOR NABUCCO SUMMIT REF: BUDAPEST 1118 Classified By: P/E counselor Eric Gaudiosi, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: GoH continues to make progress, mainly due to the efforts of its Special Ambassador for the Nabucco project, Mihaly Bayer, in organizing the Nabucco Summit it will host in January. Bayer has already secured numerous high-profile commitments to attend the Summit, but several important slots remain to be filled. Chief among them is the question who will lead the U.S. delegation, which will be an important signal of our support for the project in particular and for European energy diversification in general. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Hungary's Ambassador to the Nabucco pipeline project, Mihaly Bayer, held a short briefing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on December 10 to update the diplomatic corps on progress in preparing for the Nabucco Summit the GoH will be hosting on January 26-27. Bayer also offered additional insights on Summit preparations at a December 9 luncheon that Ambassador Foley hosted for Ambassadors from Nabucco countries. ¶3. (U) Bayer outlined the following GoH goals for the Nabucco Summit: - to provide a forum where participants could jointly express their political support for the project and confirm their readiness to cooperate toward its realization; and, - to generate discussion on remaining challenges to the pipeline and concrete proposals to address them. ¶4. (C) Bayer confirmed that the GoH will propose a "Budapest Declaration" but is not yet ready to circulate a text. He noted that the experience with the communique at Baku (see reftel) had underscored the potential difficulty of reaching an agreed text and his goal is to distribute a draft for comment by early January. He also confirmed that the IGA had been delivered to all governments on December 5 and hoped that capitals would give it urgent and serious consideration. The Summit should be the forcing event to come to closure on the IGA, but he is "realistic" regarding the fact that "European capitals will be closed for two weeks for Christmas and New Year's." ¶5. (U) Following a welcome dinner on January 26, the bulk of the Summit will take place in two separate sessions on January 27. During the opening session in the Parliament building, which will be open to Hungarian Government representatives, the resident diplomatic corps, and the press, the heads of each delegation will be invited to make a brief political statement concerning Nabucco. Afterward, the delegations will move to a closed session at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences for an in-depth discussion of the current state of play and concrete steps needed to move the project forward. ¶6. (SBU) According to Bayer, eighteen delegations have been invited, including the EBRD, the European Investment Bank, and EU Commissioners Barroso and Solana. He has been making the rounds to strongly encourage the highest-possible representation from each invited delegation. According to his office, invitations were sent in September to Vice President-elect Biden, Senator Lugar, and Special Envoy Gray. (Note: Although Senator Lugar had previously been informed about the Summit by Foreign Minister Goncz during a meeting earlier this year, his office recently told us they had not received an invitation. End note.) To date, Bayer has received the following responses: BUDAPEST 00001188 002 OF 003 - Azeri President Aliyev has confirmed that he will attend. - Responses from both the Turkmen and Kazakh leaders are pending. Bayer will visit Turkmenistan next week to follow up. - Iraqi PM Maliki has given indications that he would like to attend. - Egypt,s Minister of Petroleum is likely to represent the GoE - PM Topolanek may represent the Czech Republic, subject to press of business arising from the Czech EU Presidency. - Georgian PM Mgaloblishvili will attend. - The Bulgarian President, PM, Foreign Minister, or Economic Minister will represent Sofia. - Turkish PM Erdogan has indicated that he will try to attend. - Bayer is hopeful that Austria and Romania will be represented at their highest levels, but he is awaiting responses following their recent elections. (Note: Bayer is less confident regarding Romanian participation. End note.) - The CEO of the Nabucco International Pipeline Corporation will attend, and national delegations are welcome to include energy company representatives. - Both Barroso and Solana are giving their invitations "very serious consideration." - The EBRD President or Vice President will attend. - The EIB President has confirmed his intention to attend. ¶7. (SBU) At the Ambassador's "Nabucco lunch" Bayer made the following comments with respect to countries that are interested in the Nabucco project, but not invited to the Summit: Uzbekistan: He welcomed recent expressions of interest in the Summit but admitted that he "does not yet understand their motivations." He referred to the Budapest Summit as being focused on "long-time partners" with a "demonstrated interest." He noted that there will be opportunities for Uzbekistan to attend other events. Russia: Budapest is "firm" in its decision that there will be no invitation to Moscow to attend the Summit. Local Russian diplomats and journalists, however, are welcome to attend the opening session. Iran: Bayer indicated some openness to letting "all contribute as they are able to" in order to "make Nabucco a success," but ultimately circled back to make clear that there are "commercial interests" and then there are "political realities," underscoring that Budapest is committed to supporting the "EU-American position" that progress on the nuclear issue must come first. He confided that Tehran had been in touch to request an invitation to the Summit. Iranian officials, he thought, had realized that an invitation to Ahmedinejad would be unlikely and had proposed sending a delegation of "experts or observers." The GoH had responded that the Summit has been designed to be a high-level meeting and the issue was apparently dropped there. Bayer did offer his personal opinion, however, that efforts to "isolate" Iran were only leaving it open to BUDAPEST 00001188 003 OF 003 influence from "Russia, India, and China." ¶8. (C) COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST: We are pleased and encouraged by the GoH's progress to date in organizing a Summit that could provide Nabucco a much-needed shot in the arm. We are also concerned, however, that after months of active diplomacy on the Nabucco issue, there could be a "U.S.-sized hole" in the Summit's line-up. Accordingly, we hope that the invitation and the opportunity will be raised in discussions regarding the transition in order to determine the appropriate high-level official to lead the U.S. delegation to the Summit. This summit could mark a critical juncture for Nabucco and a strong demonstration of our consistent support for the project can only further enhance its momentum. END COMMENT. Foley