THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS HITS HUNGARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUDAPEST 001006 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE, EB/OMA, INR/EC TREASURY FOR ERIC MEYER, JEFF BAKER, LARRY NORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2013 TAGS: EFIN ECON PREL HU SUBJECT: THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS HITS HUNGARY REF: BUDAPEST 874 Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (SBU) Following years of high budget deficits and other economic policy mistakes, together with a high reliance on foreign currency-denominated loans, Hungary finds itself particularly vulnerable to the secondary effects of the financial crisis - the increasing cost and drying up of credit, lower investor risk tolerance, and a shrinking of export markets in Western Europe. ¶2. (U) Ever since the cloud of the U.S. mortgage crisis began to loom over Europe, GOH officials and economic analysts maintained that the Hungarian banking sector had little exposure to toxic assets, and would not be impacted by the primary effects of the mortgage crisis, as the financial sector held little toxic debt. Eighty percent of the banking sector in Hungary, however, is made up of local subsidiaries of foreign (mostly European) banks. These banks, while generally profitable in Hungary, are subject to the liquidity and capitalization problems of their parents. CURRENT MACROECONOMIC SITUATION ¶3. (U) Over the past two years, the government has narrowed its fiscal and current account deficits. Years of high fiscal and current account deficits, however, have left Hungary with the largest government debt (over 67 percent) and net external liability position (relative to GDP) among the new EU member states. These macroeconomic risks contributed to a widening in government bond spreads and a reduction in demand for government securities as global risk tolerance continues to fall. FOREIGN CURRENCY-DENOMINATED LOANS ¶4. (U) Additionally, an increase in foreign currency borrowing has raised both household and the corporate sectors' net foreign currency liabilities. The mortgage market, in particular, is largely comprised of foreign-currency denominated loans. Merrill Lynch analysts note that within the Hungarian banking sector, only 44 percent of private credit is in local currency, with foreign exchange lending split between Euros (18 percent) and Swiss Francs (37 percent). These high foreign currency liabilities continue to raise indirect credit risk to the banking system. The financial sector's external funding has become particularly vulnerable as banks have less access to external funding. EXPORTS IMPACTED BY LACK OF EU GROWTH ¶5. (U) A recession in Western Europe will impact growth in Hungary, which relies on European markets (particularly Germany) as a destination for exports. This was one reason cited by the government for revising its 2009 budget, which was originally based on an optimistic growth forecast of 3 percent. Shrinking exports also result in a higher current account deficit and external financing requirements. CURRENCY AND STOCK MARKET IMPACT ¶6. (U) Last week Hungary experienced a sharp currency depreciation and decline in the stock market. Bond yields have increased significantly as demand for Hungarian government securities has dried up, causing the Debt Management Agency to cut back issuances. In addition, a growing number of banks have announced they are stopping or reducing their foreign exchange-based lending, particularly in the Swiss Franc, due to increased concerns about counterparty risk in the European interbank markets. ¶7. (SBU) Panic, rumors about the health of the Hungarian financial sector, and fear that Hungary would become another Iceland has contributed to the negative impact on markets and exchange rates. In addition, although initially favorably received, news of possible IMF assistance has caused some to fear that the situation in Hungary is even more serious than initially believed. Hungary's vulnerabilities came to light on Wednesday, when the stock market experienced its largest one-day point decline ever, and the forint weakened to 266 to the Euro. S&P today put Hungary, which currently has a BBB /A-2 Sovereign credit rating, on "CreditWatch" due to "concerns over mounting financial sector pressures and their potential to raise general government debt materially from its current level of 67 percent of GDP." BUDAPEST 00001006 002 OF 003 GOVERNMENT RESPONSE ¶8. (SBU) Although perhaps underestimating the speed and the severity in which the economic crisis would hit Hungary, the government has been taking it seriously, and has begun taking steps to address it. By Hungarian standards, the discussion over what actions to take has been reasonably constructive and not dominated by partisan squabbling (septel). ¶9. (U) In addition to reassurances about the health of the Hungarian financial sector, last week the government announced a 12-point plan to address the effects of the financial crisis in Hungary, which included the withdrawal and revision of the 2009 proposed budget and tax bill, and a package of "Measures to Strengthen the Safety of Deposits". The GOH announced an increase guarantee on bank deposits to EUR 50,000 in line with EU decisions, and also announced the following actions: --it would begin offering state guarantees for interbank loans; --it would repeal investment regulations of pension funds requiring stock holdings of 40 percent; --the National Bank would introduce one-day forint-euro currency swap tenders to help optimize capital flows between banks, and indicated it stands ready to help banks meet their forint liquidity requirements. ¶10. (U) Subsequently, Hungary began a dialogue with the IMF on possible financial assistance as "a measure of last resort." On Wednesday, the National Bank announced that they are working on a package of measures to help the government securities market, and that the Debt Management Agency (AKK) and the IMF would all likely play a role. ¶11. (U) In addition to working with the IMF, the Hungarian National Bank and the ECB reached an agreement today on repurchase transactions, allowing the National Bank to borrow up to EUR 5 billion to provide additional support to its operations. This facility would support the new announced open market operations announced last week to support liquidity in the domestic foreign exchange swap market. The Finance Minister said further measures could be announced as early as this afternoon. ¶12. (U) On Wednesday, Prime Minister Gyurcsany made several proposals at the EU summit, including: Granting SME,s faster access to EU funds; broadening the authority of the European Central Bank to use monetary policy tools to intervene in any EU Member State (not just those within the Eurozone); suspending 3 percent deficit caps for member states during recessions; and establishing a unified EU financial markets authority. ¶13. (U) Today, the Finance Minister announced that the government plans to further tighten 2008 and 2009 budgets, and that an IMF delegation is in Hungary monitoring the situation, and may stay through Saturday. Any assistance plan would not be announced until after the delegation makes a proposal to the Board next week. Observers believe IMF assistance may not come in the form of a stand-by loan, but technical and other financial assistance instead. ¶14. (U) Minister Veres also announced that the government is reducing its deficit target for 2008 to 3.4 percent, decreasing the financing requirements for the rest of the year. The GOH announced that it plans to meet the Maastricht deficit criterion in 2009 and set a budget deficit goal of 2.9 percent (below 3.2 percent Convergence Program target). Details, including macroeconomic assumptions of growth and inflation will be released this Saturday. Prime Minister Gyurcsany has reportedly stated that this could make it possible for Hungary to join the ERM II by 2010. ¶15. (C) Comment: The GOH is taking the economic crisis seriously, and seems to be casting a wide net in exploring policy responses. We see the GOH's willingness to seek assistance from the IMF and Brussels as a positive sign that Budapest is not in denial. Indeed, the government may see the crisis as a way to revive its political fortunes (septel). The involvement of the IMF or the ECB may also assist Hungary in undertaking politically difficult long-term reforms, the key to economic prosperity. Publicly, the government has not directed blame at the U.S., but portrays its policy response as an attempt to not only avoid becoming a victim of the global financial turmoil which began abroad, BUDAPEST 00001006 003 OF 003 but also to fend off attacks from unscrupulous market speculators at home. Foley