ROMANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: THE MORNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUCHAREST 000942


STATE FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL RO
SUBJECT: ROMANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: THE MORNING
AFTER THE MORNING AFTER

REF: BUCHAREST 919 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Nicholas Taubman for 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) The Central Election Bureau (BEC) has yet to release
the final official results from the November 30 parliamentary
elections pending formal receipt of the official results from
four counties. However, the BEC on December 2 released a
"final but still unofficial" set of results (which includes
data received by phone or other "unofficial" means) for 100
percent of precincts. Overall turnout was 39.2 percent.

Senate:

PSD/PC 33.09 percent
PDL 32.36
PNL 18.57
UDMR 6.17


Chamber of Deputies:

PSD/PC 34.16
PDL 33.57
PNL 18.74
UDMR 6.39

Who Won, Who Lost? Who Knows?
--------------


2. (C) Under Romania's complicated new "uninominal" electoral
rules, however, the raw election scores are only the first
stage in determining the winners and losers. The new rules
comprise a confusing mixture of first-past-the-post and
proportional elements, and only candidates receiving more
than fifty percent of votes cast in a particular race can be
assured that they have won their seats outright. The
reapportionment process includes the following steps:

--Electoral authorities tally the vote totals for all parties
and candidates;

--Only parties receiving more than 5 percent or more of all
valid votes cast nationwide become eligible for
reapportionment. (e.g., PDL, PSD/PC, PNL, and UDMR)

--Candidates receiving more than 50 percent in each race win
their seats outright; their names and seats are removed from
the reapportionment process, but ballots cast for them go
into the overall pool of votes for each party.

--Reapportionment can take place at two levels; county and
national levels. Votes are initially tallied for each party
at the county level, and on the basis of an electoral
coefficient (defined as the overall number of votes cast
divided by the number of seats for the constituency),the
electoral authorities will determine how many remaining
mandates can go to each of the four parties.

--Rank-order lists are compiled for each county with
candidates ranked in descending order according to the number
of votes they received;

--Available seats are allocated to candidates on this list
until either the lists of candidates or seats are exhausted;

--If all mandates have not been allocated at the county
level, remaining seats will be allocated according to a
second-round national reallocation exercise, with a rank
order list of all remaining candidates matched up against any
remaining seats until all the seats are allocated.

--Thus, we currently have reapportionment exercises taking
place initially in 43 constituencies--42 counties and the
Bucharest metropolitan region, plus one additional
constituency for overseas voters. This can be followed by a
national-level reapportionment exercise if any mandates are
left over from the first stage of the exercise.

Winners and Losers
--------------


3. (C) While the individual second-round winners have yet to
be announced, all parties have tried to spin the election
results as a victory. The PD-L has boasted that it has
doubled its score and the number of parliamentary seats since
the 2004 election. It has also jumped the gun on the
reapportionment exercise, with PDL Vice Chairman Adrian
Videanu claiming that the party's own computerized
simulations indicate that the PD-L will come out ahead in the
total number of parliamentary seats after the process is
over. For its part, the PSD has claimed that its lead in the
popular vote--even if it is just a fraction of one
percent--gives it the "mandate" to govern. Many PSD
leaders--Geoana, Mitrea, Ponta--can also boast winning their
mandates outright by securing a majority of votes in their
respective districts. PC leaders see the disappearance of
other rival small parties as vindication of their strategy to
ally themselves closely with the PSD in this election. The
PNL for its part has boasted that it remains the
indispensable "king-maker" in Romanian politics, and has
moved to shore up this role by offering to link up with the
UDMR in order to strengthen their collective hand in
negotiating a role in the next government.


4. (C) The losers are more readily apparent, including the
right-extremist PRM and PNG, who have failed to meet the 5
percent threshold for parliamentary representation. PNG
founder Gigi Becali faced the ignominy of losing decisively
in a district where he had spent euros 450,000 of his own
money to win voters by paying their overdue electricity
bills. Similarly, PRM founder Corneliu Vadim Tudor has
charged that his party was the victim of massive electoral
fraud. Also noteworthy was the relatively poor performance of
many high-level PNL leaders including Prime Minister
Tariceanu, Chamber of Deputies President Bogdan Olteanu, and
Transportation Minister Ludovic Orban--who came in second
place (or in Olteanu's case, third place) in their respective
constituencies. Rumors were flying earlier today that
Tariceanu might not make the cut for his parliamentary seat,
but a PNL spokesman has provided assurances that Tariceanu,
Orban, and Olteanu would emerge as winners after the
reapportionment exercise.


5. (C) Some other high-profile casualties appear to include
former PSD Senate Vice President Doru Taracila; PSD Senator
Adrian Paunescu, PSD Executive Secretary Ana Birchall, and
former PSD Senator Marius Marinescu. Senior PNL leaders in
jeopardy include PNL Vice President Norica Nicolai, former
Labor Minister Paul Pacuraru, Justice Minister Marian
Predoiu, Labor Minister Mariana Campeanu, and Small and
Medium Enterprise Minister Ovidiu Silaghi. Others who may
fail to make the cut are former PDL Labor Minister Gheorghe
Barbu and UDMR Senator Peter Eckstein-Kovacs.

Was Fraud Decisive?
--------------


6. (C) A variety of Embassy contacts predicted prior to the
election that electoral irregularities could be widespread
this year. Former Justice State Secretary Laura Stefan noted
that lack of follow-up on election fraud in the May 2008
local elections might embolden politicians to stretch the
envelope this time. Similarly, PNL Deputy George Scutaru
predicted that parliamentary immunity might be a particularly
attractive asset for individuals facing indictment for
corruption or other charges. The Pro-Democracy Association
(APD) pulled out of its traditional election monitoring role
at the last minute, citing new restrictions on the activities
of election monitors. (Note: In the end, APD sent 80 roving
"emergency teams" comprised of volunteers and journalists to
monitor egregious fraud "hot spots." They normally field
3000-plus monitors on election day.)


7. (C) Subsequent to the election, APD Executive Director
Ana-Maria Mosneagu told Polcouns that fraud this year
appeared better organized and systematic compared to previous
elections--local party bosses had lists of voters targeted
for bribes and other emoluments, and they chartered buses and
other transportation to bring voters to polling stations on
election day, with voters being offered bribes en route, out
of earshot of observers. She speculated that fraud
potentially had a larger impact this year because of the
smaller voter turnout and the close margins (e.g., less than
one percent between the PSD and PDL). However, her
assessment was that all of the major parties--PSD, PDL,
PNL--were involved in vote buying and other dubious behaviors
and that the "best case" scenario was that their nefarious
efforts canceled each other out in the end. She concluded,
"our elections were free maybe, but certainly not fair."


8. (C) Also significant was the large number of invalid
ballots. According to BEC statistics, one out of five votes
cast was spoiled, blank, or otherwise invalidated. There
were some 172,884 spoiled ballots and 176,217 blank ballots
cast out of a total of 7,238,871 votes for the Senate and
210,994 invalid votes and 139,139 blank ballots out of
7,238,871 votes cast for Chamber of Deputies candidates. Our
contacts have been mixed on this issue; some have imputed
sinister motives behind the high level of invalid ballots;
others see this as nothing more than voter unhappiness with
the choices they were given. Other concerns raised by
contacts include significant discrepancies between exit poll
results and final vote tallies. Given the lack of observers
this year, however, it will be hard to make these allegations
stick.

What Comes Next?
--------------


9. (C) As noted, the reallocation process is still taking
place, and no serious inter-party negotiations are likely
until it is clear who have made their respective teams. The
PSD continues to insist that they have won the elections and
should get to name the next Prime Minister. There appears to
be wrangling, however, within PSD ranks over negotiating
strategy, and it was significant that PSD emeritus President
Ion Iliescu contradicted PSD President just minutes after
Geoana's post-election "victory" speech by remarking that the
results were reminiscent of the PSD's 2004 election loss and
that "you can't put a government together with just 40
percent." GEOANA has hinted at the need to emulate the
German example by forming a national-unity government
comprised of all major parties.


10. (C) Aside from shoring up its links with the UDMR, the
PNL has indicated that they are willing to entertain an
alliance with any partner that accepts Prime Minister
Tariceanu's "anti-Crisis" economic program (and is amenable
to retaining Tariceanu as well). Tariceanu in an interview
yesterday extended an olive branch to President Basescu by
remarking that "I am convinced that the President loves our
country as much as I do and I was very happy to see that in
this past period he underlined the positive elements of our
strategy for the economy and the creation of new jobs."


11. (C) For its part, the PDL has indicated that their first
choice is a center-right coalition with the PNL, but PDL
Chairman Boc has reiterated that "all options" are open to
the party. Ultimately, President Basescu has several high
cards to play, as he is the one empowered by the constitution
to nominate the next Prime Minister. A senior Cotroceni
contact told us prior to the election (reftel) that the
Basescu camp would likely stick to their strategy unless
their party fell behind the PSD by more than 5 percentage
points. Basescu now controls the pace and timing of the next
steps, and he has underscored that he will move at deliberate
speed, announcing that he will wait until after the official
election results are declared, and until after the December
12 expiry of the outgoing Parliament's mandate. Finally,
Basescu's opponents appear to have their hands tied as they
have publicly eschewed the drastic step of suspending the
President (as they did in early 2007) in order to have an
acting President nominate a Prime Minister from their ranks.
One Embassy contact--former Justice State Secretary
Stefan--noted that Basescu could even trump even this card if
his opponents dared: "If they suspend Basescu, he'd simply
resign and call for double elections for both the parliament
and the Presidency."


TAUBMAN