ELECTION-TIME ANGER, ANGST IN HUNGARIAN-MAJORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUCHAREST 000931


STATE FOR EAP/CE SCHEIBE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2028
TAGS: PGOV RO
SUBJECT: ELECTION-TIME ANGER, ANGST IN HUNGARIAN-MAJORITY
REGIONS

Classified By: DCM JERI GUTHRIE-CORN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) During a recent visit to ethnic Hungarian areas in
Transylvania, UDMR leaders said they would join a new
government no matter which party won the elections.
However, they admitted the PD-L was not their first choice
as a coalition partner due to conflicts over the issue of
Hungarian autonomy in Transylvania. While confident that
the UDMR will surpass the five percent threshold needed to
enter Parliament, they worry about increasing polarization,
apathy, and radicalization among Romania's ethnic
Hungarians. Meanwhile, ethnic Romanian leaders--a distinct
minority in Covasna and Harghita counties--are disappointed
in the central government and distrustful of their
Hungarian counterparts. Nevertheless, the ethnic Romanian
electorate remains so politically divided that their
candidates may not win in districts where they still
comprise the majority. In the more mixed county of Mures,
the PNL is attempting to make inroads by fielding Hungarian
speaking candidates, while the PD-L mayor of the county
capital, Targu Mures, has made it a point to work with the
Hungarian minority. The relatively prosperous city of Targu
Mures offers a more hopeful--but not perfect--model of
interethnic cooperation and tolerance in an otherwise
politically tense region. End Summary.


2. (U) Poloff and FSN visited the Transylvanian counties of
Covasna, Harghita and Mures on November 18-21 to speak with
local government officials, party leaders, candidates,
religious leaders, academics and NGOs about the upcoming
Romanian parliamentary elections. Covasna county
(population 222,000) is 74 percent ethnic Hungarian and 24
percent ethnic Romanian; its capital is
economically-depressed Sfantu Gheorghe, a windswept town of
61,000 ringed by communist housing blocs. Harghita county
(326,000) is 85 percent ethnic Hungarian and 14 percent
ethnic Romanian, the largest percentage in the country. Its
well-planned but frigid capital of Miercurea Cuic (42,000)
hosts Romania's first and largest Hungarian-speaking
University, and the country's best hockey team. The ethnic
balance is quite different in Mures County (580,000),with
a majority of ethnic Romanian residents (55 percent to 40
percent ethnic Hungarian). Similarly proportioned is its
capital of Targu Mures, a clean, prosperous city of 146,000
that would not feel out of place in northern Europe.

UDMR Declares It Will Join New Government
--------------


3. (C) Leaders of the largest ethnic Hungarian party in the
country, the UDMR, told us unequivocally the party would
join the ruling governing coalition regardless of whether
the new government was led by the PSD, PD-L or PNL. "Our
opinion is that we can do much more for Hungarians by being
in administrative positions," said Sf. Gheorghe Mayor Antal
Arpad. Added Covasna County Council President Tamas Sandor,
"the key is how many guarantees we'll have for our wish
list. If I'm a lawyer, my goal is to sign a contract. I
don't care when or with whom, I just want to sign the
contract."


4. (C) When pressed if they had a preference, our
interlocutors admitted that the PD-L was their
least-preferred partner. "We had a negative experience
cooperating with the President Basescu's Party" said
Sandor. The PD-L "hasn't kept its promises" regarding
development in the Hungarian-dominated regions, Harghita
County Council President Csaba Boboly told us in a separate
meeting. "This is a widely held viewpoint in the UDMR."
Moreover, the UDMR feels let down by the failure of the
PD-L to support a bill addressing cultural autonomy for
Hungarians despite Basescu's promises, Csaba explained
(septel). According to UDMR officials in all three
counties, the UDMR's best case scenario is for the tightest
possible race among the PNL, PD-L and PSD in order to
maximize its own bargaining power. While Boboly admits that
the UDMR has "collaborated well with all of them," the PNL
may be the preferred coalition partner, Boboly said.

Ethnic Hungarian Expectations - and Divisions
--------------


5. (C) Currently polling between 6 and 7 percent
nationally, the UDMR has been a member of the government
for the prior 12 years and is perceived by ethnic
Hungarians and Romanians alike as the more pragmatic--and
corrupt--of the ethnic-based parties. Arpad declared there
was "no doubt" the UDMR would surpass the 5 percent
threshold required to enter Parliament. The new uninominal
rules were not likely to impact the UDMR in areas with
strong ethnic Hungarian majorities (Covasna and Harghita)
or solid minorities (Mures). However, the UDMR would suffer
in areas with smaller ethnic Hungarian minorities, Arpad
explained. "Under the previous system, in counties where
ethnic Hungarians are a small minority, we would get at
least one representative to parliament because of party
lists," he said. "In this system, we'll never get one from
the smaller regions. Smaller parties are sidelined now."


6. (C) The Hungarian Civil Party (PCM),a small spin-off
from the UDMR, feels especially sidelined. The PCM formed
when disaffected UDMR members concluded the party was not
pursuing Hungarian autonomy with sufficient zeal (septel).
"The UDMR always mentions autonomy at election time. There
are no actual concrete steps. Autonomy becomes a rubber
bone for the dog - the voter, "a member of the
PCM-affiliated National Szekler Council told us in a
meeting in Sft. Gheorghe city. UDMR corruption while in the
Government and general inattention to local communities
"provoked the creation of the Civic Party," said a CSM
member: "Now, the UDMR is trying to re-create a monopoly as
a single party. We sat down and proposed an electoral
alliance with them. The rejected our proposal. They didn't
want to cooperate with us...Their purpose is not to create
pluralism among Hungarians in Romania."


7. (C) With no UDMR agreement in hand, the PCM debated
whether to run candidates at all. Local PCM leaders in Sf.
Gheorghe wanted to do so, but were overruled by the PCM
National Board, which decided instead to support six
independent candidates. This decision resulted from "the
hysteria created by the UDMR that we're creating a schism
and endangering parliamentary representation for Hungarians
in Romania," said a local PCM leader. "We don't have high
expectations from these elections in terms of entering
Parliament or addressing autonomy. Lacking financial
resources, it's difficult to run. It's even tougher to have
candidates in other regions where we're a small minority."
A Sf. Gheorghe PCM official chimed in, " But here in town,
we're frustrated. We feel we could have won under our party
banner." (Comment: under the uninominal electoral rules
requiring 50% plus one vote, the independent candidates
have little hope of victory. Arpad, the UDMR mayor of Sf.
Gheorghe, told us matter-of-factly "none of them will enter
Parliament." End Comment).

....And Angst
--------------


8. (C) The UDMR-PCM split has demoralized the ethnic
Hungarian community, we were repeatedly told. UDMR
officials expected low turnout across the three counties,
with estimates at 40-45 percent. "This region traditionally
has a higher turnout than other areas, " said Sandor. "This
time we think it will be the same as the rest of the
country. The Hungarian Civic Party's emergence is not
giving us additional votes, of course. Their political
discourse is highly negative, which leads to greater
absenteeism." Nemes Elod, President of the Association of
Hungarian Youth, agreed. "Since the Civic Party is not
running but only backing independents, there is widespread
apathy among youth because of the sense that there's no
competition." In the ethnic Hungarian-dominated Covasna and
Harghita counties, campaigning has been slow. Most towns in
these two counties have only one candidate - the UDMR
representative, with no apparent ethnic Romanian or
Hungarian Civic Party competitors. In the county capitals
of Sf. Gheorghe and Miercurea Cuic, we saw virtually no
evidence of the campaign, save for the occasional UDMR
poster. The ethnic Hungarian-majority villages that cling
to Transylvania's twisting, two-lane highways displayed
more campaign posters, but the vast majority of them were
UDMR.


9. (C) Do most ethnic Hungarians blame the UDMR for not
bringing benefits to the county? Do they blame the Civic
Party for exacerbating the split? According to Miercurea
Cuic Mayor Robert Raduly (UDMR),neither. "Villagers here
have a fatalistic view. Life is tough and we have to
survive. We can solve problems by ourselves. Urban
residents are more exposed to the consumer economy, and
yearn for higher standards." As a result, the UDMR has
maintained strong levels of support in the countryside,
where officials can more easily campaign door-to-door,
while the Civic Party has made some inroads in the larger
towns, where life is a bit less of a struggle and issues
like autonomy are debated. Still, "the Civic Party is
merely a 'protest vote' for Hungarians...They're not a
problem for the UDMR here. The big problem for us is
turnout, explained Boboly, the Harghita County Council
President. "We need a high turnout with a majority, so
votes can be redistributed to other districts."

The Mood Worsens: Ethnic Romanians Suspicious, Irritated
and Divided
-------------- --------------
--------------


10. (C) PD-L Deputy Petre Strachinaru, the only ethnic
Romanian MP in Covasna county, told us "We're just
pretending to run a campaign here. Romanians know we'll
lose." He painted a bleak portrait of the ethnic Romanian
situation in Covasna and Harghita counties. Most ethnic
Romanians were disgruntled, fed up with the ethnic
Hungarians who claimed to represent them and with ethnic
Romanian national politicians who ignored their plight.
"Here, the problems are much larger than the rest of the
country. We have a high unemployment rate, among the
highest nation wide. Investment per capita decreased in

2007. Salaries are lower here," Strachinaru explained.
Advancing a view we heard from other ethnic Romanian
politicians in the region, Strachinaru blamed UDMR
politicians for subverting development in order to preserve
the Hungarian ethnic advantage; too many job opportunities,
the thinking goes, would open the gates to an ethnic
Romanian flood and leave the ethnic Hungarians in the
minority. "The PD-L has stated all of this publicly. We've
promised to bring some funding to the county." The PD-L
also stands to benefit from a recent Basescu visit to
Covasna county. "He's the only head of state who came here
during his term. Ethnic Hungarians love him for that.
During the referendum debate [regarding Basescu's
suspension], the UDMR voted for the suspension but the
population here overwhelmingly was against it."


11. (C) When asked if UDMR participation in a governing
coalition with the PD-L would improve matters, Strachinaru
equivocated. Non-participation of the UDMR in the
government would radicalize its supporters and enflame
tensions between ethnic Romanians and ethnic Hungarians, he
said. On the other hand, the UDMR had little to show for
the last decade-plus it has been in the government.
Encapsulating a view we heard from ethnic Romanians
elsewhere, he asked rhetorically "Nothing has been done
here. Why should they [the UDMR] be in the government?"


12. (C) Perhaps more frustrating to a cross-section of
ethnic Romanians than the UDMR leadership was their own
inability to unite around a single ethnic Romanian
political party. Romanian Orthodox Bishop Ioan Stelejan of
Covasna and Harghita counties told us political divisions
had prevented ethnic Romanians from emerging as an
electoral force in his two county region; ethnic Romanians
knew it, and felt ignored as a result. In contrast, he
continued, the ethnic Hungarian population remained
disciplined and will vote for the UDMR. Even in areas
where the ethnic Romanians are in the majority -- one
voting district in Harghita and Covasna counties -- the
ethnic Romanian parties have put up their own candidates,
thereby dividing the vote. "It's possible none of them will
get to Parliament," Stelejan said. PSD Deputy Mircea Dusa,
the only ethnic Romanian MP from Harghita County, is
running in the one ethnic Romanian majority district in
Harghita county. His competition is fierce, he told us in
Miercurea Cuic before rushing back to his district. "The 40
percent of the ethnic Hungarians that make up the district
will vote UDMR. And it's too late for some accord among the
remaining three ethnic Romanian parties to horse-trade to
ensure a Romanian victory in a ethnic Romanian-majority
area." A similar phenomenon may occur in Mures county,
where ethnic Romanians comprise a 55 percent majority.
Dorin Florea, the PD-L Mayor of Tirgu Mures, the county
capital, predicted the same outcome county-wide: the 40
percent of county that was ethnic Hungarian would vote
UDMR, while the PD-L, PSD and PNL would divide up the
remainder.

Cooler Heads in Mures County
--------------


13. (C) Time and time again, local ethnic Romanian
politicians in Covasna and Harghita counties complained
that their ethnic Hungarian counterparts were raising the
issue of Hungarian autonomy to stir up ethnic Hungarian
voters. "The media here are controlled by ethnic Hungarian
politicians," said Harghita County Prefect Strujan. "They
transmit the messages the politicians want and the don't
inform locals what the Romanian state does for them. This
is very harmful." Dusa separately told us that "ordinary
folks in the county don't have many conflicts with each
other. The problems emerge with the politicians....of
course, minority Romanians are irritated." Targu Mures
Mayor Dorin Florea (PD-L) echoed these thoughts: "The UDMR
leaders try to keep the population ignorant. They're not
interested in infrastructure, economics, real issues."
Governing in a mixed city, the mayor selected an ethnic
Hungarian deputy mayor, "and now he's under pressure from
the UDMR not to cooperate with me. It's outrageous that we
have important projects concerning infrastructure and real
estate here and we have no UDMR ministers or
parliamentarians trying to implement those projects.
Instead, they encourage their NGOs to block them."


14. (SBU) Nevertheless, Mures Deputy County Prefects
Zamfira Pora (PNL) and Gyorzo Baczi (UDMR) described a
"voter friendly" campaign in their county that lacked the
aggressive tone in the neighboring ethnic
Hungarian-majority counties of Harghita and Covasna. "There
have been small attacks against opponents but not
nationalistic attacks," said Mures County Council President
Emoke Lokodi (UDMR). "Nothing outrageous." Ethnic
Hungarians in Targu Mures City "have more problems with the
Hungarian candidates here than with the Romanian candidates
here. Now, we have fights between Hungarians and Hungarians
and between Romanians and Romanians," Lokodi said.
Interestingly, cross fertilization has begun. The ethnic
Romanian parties are playing on the UDMR-PCM split to
capture Hungarian voters, while the UDMR is seeking to
attract ethnic Romanian voters because as ethnic Hungarian
divisions have weakened the UDMR in certain districts, even
that of UDMR President Marko Bela. "Imagine! There are
bilingual posters on both sides!" Pora said.


15. (SBU) The PNL, in particular, has been at the forefront
of fielding ethnic Hungarian candidates. Many of these
Hungarian PNL candidates are virtual unknowns. "A danger
that arises -- but is not of concern yet -- is that this
will confuse some of our voting base," Pora said, referring
to ethnic Romanian PNL supporters. One thing remains
certain, though: the Romanian parties in Mures County are
in intense competition and remain divided. The Hungarians
should win here, Pora predicted, but since they comprised
only 40 percent of the county, they would need Romanian
assistance to govern. The need to build coalitions means
that there may be more contact between Romanians and
Hungarians in Mures county than in deeply divided Harghita
and Covasna Counties. "Here we try to understand each other
as people, not just based on our political affiliations."
Pora said. "Targu Mures is a small city," said Smaranda
Enache, President of the NGO Pro Europa League. "People
have to find a way to cooperate, and they generally do."

TAUBMAN