REFUGEE NUMBERS PROVE DIFFICULT MEASURE OF EUFOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000903 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR PRM/AFR MMCKELVEY, AF/C TASHAWNA BETHEA, AF/RSA MICHAEL BITTRICK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREF PREL EUN SUBJECT: REFUGEE NUMBERS PROVE DIFFICULT MEASURE OF EUFOR CHAD SUCCESS ¶1. (U) Summary: Three months into the European Union's military mission to Chad and Central African Republic (EUFOR),officials at the Operational Headquarters (OHQ) told USEU officers the mission has been more logistically challenging than expected, but is fulfilling its goal of protecting refugees and IDPs and facilitating the work of humanitarian organizations. Although planners in Brussels had hoped to measure success by the number of displaced people returning home during the mission, that idea may be revised in the face of increasing numbers of refugees moving into EUFOR's area of operations. Assessment teams are preparing to conduct a field mission which will result in an EU progress report to the UN at EUFOR's six-month midpoint on Sept. 15. End summary. EUFOR facts and timelines -------------- 2.(U) During a June 10 tour of EUFOR's OHQ in Mont Valerien, France, USEU pol-mil and refugee officers received a two-hour briefing from Deputy Operations Commander Major General Boguslaw Pacek, Col. Carol Paranaiak, and several officers handling specialties such as logistics and intelligence. They described the mission as a "military mission for humanitarian purposes acting under a UN mandate." Among the information provided was the following: -- There are currently 2,924 soldiers deployed, with full deployment of all 3,820 expected by late summer. -- The three countries contributing the bulk of the troops are France, Poland and Ireland. The next tier includes Sweden, Finland, and Belgium. In total, 17 EU countries have contributed personnel. -- Initial operating capacity was reached on March 15, 2008, which means the EUFOR mandate will expire 12 months later on March 14, 2009. Full operating capacity was declared in May. -- The area of operations is 850 km by 250 km in eastern Chad and northern CAR. EUFOR soldiers are located at a number of sites, including Iriba (mostly Polish troops),Abeche, Goz Beida (the largest, with two battalions of mostly Irish soldiers),and Birao, CAR (the smallest, a company of French troops). -- EUFOR is co-located with the 2,500-person UN Mission for Chad and CAR (MINURCAT),which includes 300 UN police, 1,300 nurses and other civilians, 50 military liaison officers, and 850 members of an integrated security detachment. 
Measuring mission success -------------- 3.(U) Operational Commanders say 100,000 new refugees have moved into EUFOR's area of operations in eastern Chad and northern CAR in the past nine months, since September 2007 (note: figures significantly higher than those used by PRM). In late 2007, prior to EUFOR deployment, EU officials said a key measure of the mission's success would be the number of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) who returned home during the 12-month mission. Several months into the mission, refugee numbers instead have risen. The increase may be due to the security provided by EUFOR, or it may be unrelated to EUFOR and stem from factors such as continued attacks against civilians, banditry and general instability in Darfur. Operational Commanders said there are a total of 255,000 refugees in EUFOR's area of operations (49 percent in the north near Iriba, 33 percent in the center near Abeche, 17 percent in the south near Goz Beida, and 1 percent in CAR) and 185,000 IDPs (2 percent in the north, 23 percent in the center, and 75 percent in the south). The increase in refugees may present a challenge for the EU in terms of measuring mission success, since it had planned to use refugee returns as a benchmark. Officials in Brussels say the measurement criteria will be revised, but it is not yet clear what the new benchmarks will be. Pacek and others at OHQ termed the mission a success so far in that it is providing security for the refugees and IDPs, and is serving as good experience for EU soldiers working together in a difficult environment. Teams from the UN, EU, and OHQ are heading this month to the field, and each will prepare an assessment report by early July. The EU will review the findings and present a final report to the UN SYG by September 15, the mid-point of EUFOR's mission. Biggest mission threat: the mosquito -------------- BRUSSELS 00000903 002 OF 002 4.(U) Pacek stressed that the key verbs in EUFOR's mission statement are "protect" and "facilitate": protecting civilians in danger, and facilitating delivery of humanitarian aid and free movement of humanitarian personnel through improved security. Most EUFOR sites are located 15-20 km from refugee camps and IDP settlements, and EUFOR operates simply by being an armed presence that patrols in the area to deter attackers. Pacek said the mission has encountered no problems from either Sudanese or Chadian rebels, though general banditry is common. "So far, we haven't had to use our guns," he said. One EUFOR soldier and one civilian were killed when they strayed into Sudan, an incident that Pacek said resulted from "a mistake." In assessing threats to the force on the ground, EUFOR officials ranked malaria-bearing mosquitoes number one. "We are not concerned about the Janjaweed or Toro Boro (rebels),but we do worry about mosquitoes," Pacek said. Despite the mosquitoes and a host of infectious diseases endemic to the region, officials say that soldiers have stayed mostly healthy so far. Logistical challenges are daunting since most mission supplies have to be imported, and transportation infrastructure is poor at best. EUFOR has so far received eight cargo ships worth of supplies, each of which takes 14 days to sail from Rotterdam, the Netherlands, to Douala, Cameroon, and then days to weeks to get the approximately 2000 kms from Douala to eastern Chad by road. The southern part of the mission has been drenched in tropical rains, while the northern part has been baking in the desert sun. "Only for France is this operation a piece of cake," said Pacek, referring to France's long experience in the region. EUFOR's first tasks were to be visible and to conduct information operations, primarily to show local residents that EUFOR was different from the pre-existing French Epervier mission, OHQ officials said. Relationship with NGOs -------------- 5.(U) Pacek said EUFOR coordinates with approximately 100 humaniarian non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international organizations on the ground. EUFOR's mission allows it to assist in securing humanitarian convoys, but so far they have received requests only from international organizations, none from NGOs, officials said. EUFOR troops on the ground interact regularly with NGOs to share threat assessments and security information, primarily trading information about the safety of movement and operations in various areas, according to Lt. Col. Philippe Morin, an intelligence officer at the OHQ. Comment -------------- 6.(SBU) Officials at the OHQ are broadly pleased with the mission so far, an assessment that seems to stem from the fact that neither the troops nor the refugee/IDP settlements in their area have been attacked by rebels; not too many troops have succumbed to heat and illness; IOs and NGOs are able to operate under the EUFOR security umbrella; and EU troops are gaining experience in operating in a difficult logistical environment. Pacek said the last one may be the most important of all, predicting that Africa will become a future site for more and more European peacekeeping and humanitarian action. EUFOR will not be able to measure its success based on the number of refugees and IDPs that go home during the mission, since those numbers have actually increased, perhaps a logical side effect of the increased security in the area. There is no clear answer yet to what will happen on March 15, 2009, if UN troops are not in place to take over when EUFOR's mandate expires. OHQ officials deflected that question, saying it was for the politicians to decide. MURRAY .