BELGIAN LEADERS TRY TO AVOID A GOVERNMENT CRISIS:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000684

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2023
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN LEADERS TRY TO AVOID A GOVERNMENT CRISIS:
AGAIN


Classified By: DCM Wayne Bush, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Belgium's political parties are again
locked in intense negotiations over a plan to redistrict the
Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde (B-H-V) province. The change,
proposed and supported by the Flemish parties, would divide
the multi-lingual region surrounding the capital into a large
Flemish electoral district and a smaller bi-lingual (mostly
Francophone) district. The Flemings contend the region is
both geographically and culturally Flemish and therefore
should be joined with Flanders. The Francophone opposition
argues that the change would effectively disenfranchise the
significant French-speaking population that currently lives
in the region. The issue continues to have the potential to
bring down the Leterme government. The gravity of the
situation was brought home when Leterme cut short his
meetings with Chancellor Merkel to return to Brussels for
consultations within his party regarding the impasse. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Although the B-H-V issue has been a hot button
issue since the late 1960's, this most recent proposal could
threaten the fragile balance of the current government. The
current redistricting bill, introduced in November 2007, was
removed from the House of Representatives, agenda when the
Francophone parties initiated a conflict of interest
procedure. The Belgian constitution allows each regional,
community, and the federal parliament to initiate such a
procedure. The procedure prevents a bill or an item from
being voted on for a period of 120 days, which is referred to
as "cooling off time." The 120-day period for the November
redistricting bill expired on April 30th, 2008, placing the
bill on the House,s agenda for that day. To avoid a
political crisis that would pit Flemish and Francophone
parties against one another, Prime Minister Leterme and the
majority parties, in a unprecedented move, canceled the
House,s plenary session for April 30th. By doing so,
Leterme and his allies gave themselves a week to hash out a
procedural compromise to avoid a vote on May 8th.


3. (SBU) It is widely thought that leaders of both the
Flemish and Francophone parties would like to avoid a vote on
the bill. If a vote takes place, the result will be along
linguistic lines, the Flemish supporting the change, the
Francophones opposing it. The Flemish have a large majority
in the House and will therefore win the vote; the
Francophones do not want that to happen. The Flemish
parties, who have many passionate supporters of the
redistricting among their constituents, cannot vote against
the bill without a major political fallout. However, they
recognize that pushing the bill through could cause the
francophone parties to pull out of the governing coalition.
Indeed, just yesterday, Prime Minister Leterme initially
agreed to postpone the vote until July 15. The Francophones
could then invoke the conflict of interest procedure in the
Constitution and delay the vote for a further 120 days.
However, resistance within the Flemish parties forced Leterme
to back down from this strategy.


4. (SBU) Neither French nor Flemish parties want a vote
along linguistic lines that would trigger a political crisis
just a little over a month into the new government. Many
observers believe that the current negotiations are centered
on finding a procedural compromise that would avoid a B-H-V
vote on May 8th, but would allow the Flemish parties to save
face in the eyes of their constituents. A further option is
to schedule a lengthy budget debate before the debate on the
redistricting plan, allowing the government to delay the
redistricting vote in the hope of making further progress in
the on-going talks.


5. (C) If the parties fail to reach a procedural compromise
to avoid the vote on May 8th, the bill would be voted on late
on the 8th and is likely to pass. A number of scenarios
could result. In the most likely scenario, Leterme would
resign and new elections would be held as early as June 22nd.
In another, Leterme would start a national reconciliation
process with the King, leaders of opposition parties, and
other national leaders. The exact shape and scope of such a
reconciliation are unclear at this moment, but would likely
include a pro forma rejection of Leterme's resignation by
King Albert, a major national address, and policy steps
designed to heal the linguistic rift.


6. (C) COMMENT: Whatever the result of a potential vote may
be, the Francophone parties are likely to initiate a lengthy
legal process to prevent the redistricting from taking place
on the ground that it violates the linguistic rights of
French speakers in the B-H-V region. Leterme will continue
to head a deeply divided government where even members of the
governing coalition continue to snipe at each other. During
last year's long government formation talks, Leterme's
regular gaffes weakened his ability to negotiate effectively
with francophone parties. Although as PM, he has avoided
making more gaffes, he still is unable to reach across
Belgium's linguistic divide to build a coherent government
with staying power.

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