EU: TRYING TO FORGE CONSENSUS ON EUROPEAN PATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000294 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018 TAGS: PREL EAID EUN KV SUBJECT: EU: TRYING TO FORGE CONSENSUS ON EUROPEAN PATH FOR KOSOVO; INFORMAL TIME-OUT ON SAA FOR SERBIA; POSSIBLE FURTHER FLEXIBILITY ON BIH/SAA Classified By: POL Enlargement Unit Chief V. Carver for reasons 1.4 (b/ d). Summary - - - - - ¶1. (C) According to EU and member state contacts, 26 (save Cyprus) member states likely will recognize Kosovo by the end of the year. The Romanian PSC Ambassador floated to the Charge a proposal that would have Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece simultaneously recognizing Kosovo independence before UNMIK's transfer of authority to the ESDP Mission. The Slovenian Presidency expects more member states to recognize after the adoption of Kosovo's constitution and the passage of Ahtisaari-related legislation. The German Mission told us that Romania and Slovakia could be persuaded with a little patience. All our contacts criticized the Serbian Government's lack of protection of the U.S. and other embassies against demonstrators in Belgrade February 21. Several contacts hope for a "cooling off" period in Serbia while technical talks with the EU, including on visa liberalization, continue. The Slovene Mission reports that several member states are more eager than ever to be even more flexible on police reform in BiH and sign an SAA with Sarajevo, but Belgium and the Netherlands remain reluctant. End summary. All But Cyprus Likely will Recognize Kosovo - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Commission Director General for Enlargement Michael Leigh told visiting DAS Bryza February 21 that all member states except Cyprus likely would recognize Kosovo by the end of the year. The Slovene Presidency told us that some member states (unnamed) are waiting for Pristina to adopt a constitution and promulgate additional Ahtisaari-related legislation before recognizing independence. The German Mission noted that "most" of the sideliners, including Spain Romania, and Slovakia, would recognize Kosovo over the coming months. Our Commission, German, and Slovene contacts noted that the Commission's expected Communique on the W. Balkans, due March 5, will emphasize the need to move forward on the accession process for all countries in the region. While none of our contacts expect movement on the SAA with Serbia given the Dutch and Belgian positions on ICTY/SAA and the need for a "cooling off" period of at least a few months �00A;following Kosovo independence, technical talks with Belgrade continue, including on visa liberalization. Our Slovene contact observed that Serbia might "behave" in regional organizations as long as Kosovo is formally represented by UNMIK. Once UNMIK relinquishes this role, however, Serbia can be expected to cause problems, but "eventually, Serbian politicians will recognize the new reality" and see that impeding Kosovo's regional integration will only damage Serbia's reputation. Romanian Informal Proposal for Romanian, Bulgarian, and Greek Recognition - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C/NF) Romanian PSC Ambassador Ardeleanu floated a proposal with the Charge February 22. According to Ardeleanu, both he and Romanian PermRep Lazar Comanescu (who, according to Ardeleanu, will depart Brussels as early as April to assume duties as Foreign Policy Advisor to the President) are trying to determine how to convince Bacescu to recognize Kosovo. One idea, apparently not yet shared with Athens and Sofia, is for Romania, Greece, and Bulgaria to use a trilateral meeting as a platform for recognizing simultaneously. This should be done ideally before UNMIK transfers authority to the ESDP Mission, thereby providing some political cover for each country. Ardeleanu thought this could justify to their respective publics the need for recognition in order to move forward on Serbia's and Kosovo's European aspirations. He observed that the Bucharest NATO Summit would provide a good opportunity for interested partners to suggest this scenario. Ardeleanu also noted that the head of the Social Democratic Party in Romania, a former ambassador to the U.S., is "reasonable," and might be persuaded not to introduce the Kosovo issue in the domestic Romanian political debate. Trying to Advance Pre-Accession Process for Kosovo - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C/NF) Leigh told us that the Commission is trying to figure out how to advance Kosovo on the pre-accession track. Given that the Commission requires a mandate from the Council to begin the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) with a country, it may have to settle for more technical BRUSSELS 00000294 002 OF 002 feasibility studies until 26 member states recognize Kosovo. Cyprus might be out-maneuvered if all other member states are on board. The German Mission told us February 22 that 22 member states favor beginning work on the SAP immediately, but five are "totally against" at this stage. The Council Secretariat W. Balkans Unit pointed to High Rep Solana's SIPDIS visit to Kosovo February 19 as a sign of the EU's commitment to Kosovo's independence and regional stability. Bosnia-Herzegovina: A Continuing Concern - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) According to the Slovene Mission, several member states see a need for greater "flexibility" in the EU's interpretation of police reform in BiH. Our contact said that these member states view signing an SAA with Sarajevo as critical in light of Kosovo independence and the resulting rhetoric from Banja Luka. The Dutch and Belgians, however, are reluctant to lower the bar even further on police reform. The German Mission stressed that the EU must see "credible" police reform and that the EU must remain firm about its bottom line or it would lose credibility with all political forces in BiH. Both our Slovene and German contacts said they expect the PIC to support benchmarking for the eventual closure of OHR. That said, the Slovene stressed that the OHR must remain open for at least the foreseeable future given Dodik's public remarks and the reported passage February 22 by the RS Assembly of a resolution stressing its right to self-determination. Criticizing Belgrade for Attacks on Embassies - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (U) Several of our contacts called us February 22 to express concern regarding the February 21 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Belgrade. Rehn's spokesperson called the use of force "unacceptable" and called on Serbian authorities to ensure the proper protection of diplomatic missions in Serbia. High Rep Solana, at an informal Defense Ministerial in Slovenia, was quoted by the media as saying that, "Things will have to calm down before we can recuperate the climate that would allow for any contact to move on the SAA" with Serbia. Comment - - - - ¶7. (C) While the majority of member states have (or are leaning toward) recognized Kosovo, we will need to work with our EU Quint partners to push for the wavering members to do so. Otherwise, the EU's internal mechanics of moving Pristina along the early steps toward EU accession will be fraught with the same hand-wringing associated with the last several months of EU deliberations over Kosovo. While the Commission is on board and wants to move forward, it cannot do so robustly absent EU consensus. Rehn's cabinet has assured us that the Donors' Conference on Kosovo will not be negatively affected, although the World Bank reportedly may still have Kosovo-related issues to resolve in the weeks to come. WOHLERS .