WITH GOVERNMENT'S RESIGNATION, THE SEARCH FOR A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001953 SIPDIS STATE PASS EUR/WE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR AF BE SUBJECT: WITH GOVERNMENT'S RESIGNATION, THE SEARCH FOR A CARETAKER CONFIGURATION IS ON REF: A. BRUSSELS 1943 ¶B. BRUSSELS 1933 ¶C. BRUSSELS 1922 Classified By: Acting DCM Richard Eason for reason 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: The King accepted the Leterme government's resignation December 22. The government now goes into caretaker status until a new coalition is negotiated or new elections are held. The King has asked former PM Wilfried Martens to act as a go-between and look for options in forming a new government. A caretaker government has limited political powers and may only take action on existing initiatives. The Parliament is expected to pass a continuing budget resolution December 24, as well as approve the armed forces contingent funding for 2009. Key U.S. concerns, such as Belgium's plus ups in Afghanistan and ratification of the MLAT and Extradition Agreements were already approved by the Leterme government, and a caretaker government can take action on administrative processes as necessary. Martens is unlikely to find a quick candidate for PM that could lead a new government due to the current climate of mistrust among Belgian politicians; the caretaker government is likely to hobble along for a while. Most observers believe national elections will be held in June 2009 along with the already scheduled regional and European Parliament elections. The Flemish Liberals (Open VLD) are unlikely to accept a PM replacement from Leterme's Christian Democratic Party (CD&V) that could gain the respect of the electorate and perform well in June elections. The current situation with a discredited CD&V and continuous uncertainty creates ideal conditions for the return of former Open VLD PM Guy Verhofstadt to the political scene. On the Walloon side, the Francophone Liberals (MR) and Socialists (PS) will battle each other for the top spot in Wallonia and avoid any political decisions that might give the other party an advantage. Regardless of who might win early elections in June, the nature of the Belgian political system requires coalitions be formed. The current environment of mistrust and political opportunism does not bode well for a quick successor to the Leterme government. Any replacement government is likely to be weaker than the former government, whether elections take place or not. End Summary. Caretaker Government while Martens Negotiates a New Coalition -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The King formally accepted the resignation of the Leterme government late evening December 22. His efforts over the weekend to find a PM suitable to the five coalition parties failed. The MR and Open VLD raised strident objections to his desired replacement Jean-Luc Dehaene. The former government will remain in caretaker status until a new government coalition with full governing authorities can be sworn in. The King asked former PM and current EP People's Party Group Leader Wilfried Martens to act as a go-between with the majority parties and work towards a governing solution. A caretaker government would supposedly maintain all the current ministers, excluding PM Yves Leterme and JustMin Vandeurzen. The time in office of a new government would also have to be negotiated: some parties favor a government that completes the Leterme government term through 2011, while the Open VLD prefers an interim government through early June followed by national elections held concurrently with regional and European Parliament elections. Martens' main challenge will be finding a candidate for PM who is respected by all five coalition parties, but weak enough electorally to be a non-threat in early elections; in other words, someone who could not bolster his or her party's prospects at the ballot box. ¶3. (C) A caretaker government would have clearly defined and limited powers. It could pass draft bills for continuing resolutions in parliament, but could not launch any new initiatives. According to PM Leterme's Political Advisor, the Parliament will vote on a continuing budget resolution December 24, but could only pass a 2009 budget in extreme circumstances. Parliament will also adopt December 24 the armed forces contingent bill for 2009, which had already been approved by the Council of Ministers. Belgian budgetary and troop commitments for 2009 have already been decided on a macro level, and a caretaker government is able to vote on any final details necessary to deploy its troops in BRUSSELS 00001953 002 OF 003 Afghanistan. According to MFA contacts, a caretaker government could potentially ratify the MLAT and Extradition treaties as they were approved and already in process under the Leterme government, and ready to be passed to Parliament in early January. The PM's Advisor predicted that Martens is unlikely to find a quick solution, considering the mistrust between the CD&V and Open VLD in Leterme's government, and the current political opportunities the government's demise presents to the Open VLD. Liberal Parties Jockey for Early Elections -------------- ¶4. (C) A seasoned Belgian diplomat told POLOFF that Belgium is ruled by parties not governments. This explains why the King met first with party leaders rather than ministers to see if an alternative PM candidate could be found. The Flemish Christian Democrats are trying to hold off elections until 2011, as the departure of Leterme's government and the controversy around JustMin Vandeurzen could hurt their chances in June. The Liberal parties, (Open VLD and MR) are in favor of early elections. Both the Open VLD and MR see an opportunity to pick up seats in an early election, and will be hesitant to support a government led by a PM that could be a strong candidate for the CD&V in June. ¶5. (C) A possible obstacle to early elections is the electoral district of Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde. Belgium's Constitutional Court ruled in 2007 that a solution must be found before the next national elections. Leterme's government failed to tackle the issue. It could be challenging for a caretaker or interim government to divide the district as required by the Belgian constitution by June. The election could still be held, but Flemish nationalist parties could then contest the results in court. ¶6. (C) POLOFF spoke to the foreign policy expert at the Open VLD headquarters to get an inside view of their political game. The Open VLD is the second largest Flemish party, and along with their Francophone Liberal (MR) counterparts, can claim the largest political grouping in the national parliament. The two Liberal parties opposed the King's preferred PM replacement CD&Ver Karl Dehaene, and complained loudly in the press that they were not being consulted appropriately. Both parties were worried that Dehaene was favorably inclined to the Socialists, as he represents the labor wing of the CD&V. Both Liberal parties have reasons for opposing any move benefiting the Socialists. Our Open VLD contact spoke to the MR communications director last week, who said the MR was focusing on annihilating the PS electorally in the regional elections. The MR has aligned itself with the Francophone Greens (Ecolo) to form a Progressive Alliance, and will portray the Socialist-Christian Democrats (PS and CdH) as an overly conservative archaic political grouping that has prevented Wallonia's progress. The Open VLD also holds suspicions that Dehaene might invite the Flemish Socialists (Spa) to form a unity government. Our Open VLD contact said his party sees no rationale for Spa joining the government, noting their decisive loss electoral drubbing in 2007. ¶7. (C) The Open VLD, for its part, is concerned the popular Dehaene could lead the CD&V into an early election as the candidate of national stability and unity. The Open VLD wants to carry that mantle and sees a golden opportunity in the current political churning. According to our contact, early elections would be the best opportunity for former PM Verhofstadt to return to the political pole position. The nostalgia of the stable Verhofstadt governments (1999-2007) could draw many disaffected voters back to the Open VLD. Thus, the Open VLD is not interested in a caretaker configuration headed by anyone who could compete with Verhofstadt. Our contact said there would be competition enough from the post-Leterme CD&V and the parties of the right. Of the CD&V, he said that Flemish Minister President Kris Peeters is the only obvious candidate to carry the CD&V into an election. Even though Verhofstadt is popular in Flanders and Wallonia, and with the CD&V's problems at the national level, Peeters is one of the most popular Flemish politicians. The right wing could pose a threat, with the center-right Lijst Dedecker (LDD) already rising in polls. If the LDD can sell its message of common sense government and draw enough votes from Flemish nationalist voters and the main stream CD&V or Open VLD, it could become the second or BRUSSELS 00001953 003 OF 003 third largest Flemish party. When asked if the Open VLD could envision a government with the LDD, our contact said the enmity Guy Verhofstadt and current Open VLD FM Karel De Gucht hold for LDD Leader Jean-Marie Dedecker would be hard to overcome. Their antipathy towards Dedecker dates back to the 2004 regional elections, before Dedecker left the Open VLD to form his own party. The Open VLD leadership blames the party's poor 2004 performance on internal infighting fomented by Dedecker. Our contact opined there would have to be a significant rapprochement for his party's leadership to stomach a coalition that included the LDD, even though they share some policies. ¶8. (C) The Socialist parties have played their part in preventing a quick solution as well. The PS blocked any consideration of MR Finance Minister Didier Reynders as a Leterme replacement. The status Reynders would have gained as the first Wallonian PM in decades would have been a serious threat to the PS in the regional elections. According to the Spa spokesman, his party is in a rebuilding phase after its worst performance in the party's history in ¶2007. The party president Caroline Gennez wants to keep the party in opposition, develop new ideas and recruit new members. She has promised that Spa would be constructive in the opposition and even consider joining a unity government if asked. Her condition that no ministers that could be potentially investigated by the parliamentary inquiry over Fortis, e.g. Reynders, makes Spa's participation unlikely. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The current political churning highlights the weakness of Belgian governments. Leterme's five-party coalition government was brought down by distrust and political opportunism. Leterme's political advisor pointed to the rivalry and mistrust between the CD&V and Open VLD as the main culprits. Leterme's government fell over possible, but unproven, interference in a judicial decision. The resulting parliamentary inquiry may find no wrongdoing, but his government could not withstand the controversy and accusations. The Open VLD's efforts to prevent a quick PM replacement that returned a capable CD&V PM to Wetstraat 16 is clear political opportunism. The Spa spokesperson commented that early elections would become the "mother" of all elections for the Open VLD; in Verhofstadt they have their man. The MR could also do quite well if their new alliance with the Greens can inspire voters that they are the standard bearers for a progressive Wallonia. ¶10. (C) Even with stronger liberal parties, the need to form coalition governments does not guarantee a more stable government would materialize after early elections. Without some form of institutional reforms, strong Belgian governments are pure fantasy. In the short run at least, Belgian commitments in Afghanistan will continue and a caretaker government can maintain the status quo. In the medium term, it is unclear whether an interim government can be found to govern through 2009 or 2011. The King's go-between might not be able to find a quick solution. As one of our contacts pointed out, we already know what the possible options are: the same options we have now. Unless the Liberals decide there is some political reason to allow a new government to form, they might be content to allow a weak caretaker situation to continue, and begin campaigning for the June elections in the New Year. It is unclear who would win that election and what new coalition could form. There is certainly no guarantee the result would be any stronger than what we have now. BUSH .