A TALE OF TWO PARTIES: THE FIGHT FOR THE FLEMISH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001795

SIPDIS

STATE PASS EUR/WE KATE SHARP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: A TALE OF TWO PARTIES: THE FIGHT FOR THE FLEMISH
RIGHT

REF: A. STATE 1772

B. STATE 1787


1. Summary: Though the June 2009 elections are months away,
they lurk in backs of the minds of most Flemish politicians.
The center-right Flemish Liberal Party (Open VLD) is worried
about recent controversies besetting its ministers, while the
upstart center-right party Lijst Dedecker (LDD) anticipates
drawing former Open VLD voters as well as moderate-right
voters turned off by the nationalist rhetoric of Vlaams
Belang. The Open VLD has traditionally been one of the three
largest Flemish parties, competing with the Flemish Catholic
Party (CD & V) for centrist voters, but trying to espouse a
more free market economic policy, reforms of the social
system, and an open immigration policy that meets the needs
of the Belgian economy. Lijst Dedecker, headed by former
Open VLD member Jean-Marie Dedecker, supports more radical
economic policies, including a flat tax, increased autonomy
for local regions to levy taxes, improvements to
infrastructure, reduced public support of media, and stricter
immigration policies and greater integration of immigrants.
The key challenge for the LDD is to continue its recruitment
of strong politicians and sell itself as a legitimate party
with a platform rather than a collection of politicians and
strong personalities under the charismatic Dedecker. End
Summary.

Open VLD
--------------


2. An Open VLD party member recently confided to Poloff that
his party could face serious challenges going into the June
2009 local elections. The party leadership is concerned that
recent controversies surrounding alleged preferential hiring
for sexual favors in the Interior Ministry headed by Open
VLDer Patrick De Wael and Foreign Minister De Gucht, whose
wife sold a large number of Fortis shares just before the
stock tumbled (ref A),could tarnish the party's reputation.
Open VLD has also taken note of polls showing the LDD's
steady rise in popularity with Flemish voters (10.3 percent
of Flemish voter support in June, and 15.4 percent in
September) while Open VLD support has remained relatively
stable (17.4 percent to 18.4 percent). The party will
continue to espouse its center-right positions on tax
reduction, a balanced budget, fighting poverty, empowering
business, labor market flexibility, open immigration policy
focused on addressing labor shortages and key industries.

Lijst Dedecker
--------------


3. LDD Spokesperson, Deputy Party Chairman, and Flemish MP
Jurgen Verstrepen recently expressed confidence in his
party's June prospects. Calling rival Open VLD a
center-center party, Verstrepen said that the LDD could
position itself as a more effective voice for true
center-right voters and those disaffected by the rabidly
nationalist parties on the far right. The LDD intends to
draw support from both the Open VLD from which many of its
candidates come, as well as the rightist, Flemish Nationalist
Vlaams Belang (VB). Verstrepen, a former outspoken radio
personality who left radio to join the far right VB after
being censored three times for "politically incorrect"
controversial programming. He later left the VB for its
extreme views and inflexibility, which turned off reasonable
and moderate-right wing voters. He hopes to help the party
draw many of those disaffected by the racist reputation of
the VB but want to cast a vote for a true center-right party.



4. When asked whether his party was simply a grouping of
politicians or actually stood for something, Verstrepen said
the party had adopted a platform that supports more
radical-liberal economic policies, including a flat tax,
giving local and regional governments taxation authority,
improving infrastructure, reducing public support for media,
and reforming immigration policy while better integrating
immigrants. Recent press reports have highlighted the LDD's
continued success at attracting lawmakers from other parties,
with three local politicians defecting from the Open VLD to
LDD this week. Overall, the LDD currently has one national
senator and five MPs, elected in 2007. LDD claims 103
regional and local elected officials, all of whom where
defectors from other parties, mostly from Open VLD and VB
ranks (Note: LDD did not exist at the time of the last local
election in 2004. End Note).

Conclusion
-------------- Q


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5. The June 2009 elections are the major electoral event for
Flemish parties in 2009. Many political careers are begun at
the regional level. The Flemish government also co-chairs
the ongoing negotiations with the Francophone parties on
regional - national government reform, making these coming
elections even more important to the Flemish voter. In this
environment, the upstart LDD could do very well if it is able
to draw voters who previously voted for the radical Vlaams
Belang and paint the more traditional center-right Open VLD
as a party that has moved too far to the center. The
challenge for the LDD is to sell itself as an actual party,
rather than a collection of opportunistic pols under the
banner of the charismatic Mr. Dedecker. In a September poll
on the popularity of Flemish politicians, Mr. Dedecker was
the only politician named as outstanding by intending LDD
voters; they then named leaders from other parties. In the
six months leading up to the June elections, the LDD will try
to solidify its support, while the Open VLD will try to move
the popular discussion beyond its current controversies. In
June we will know which party has done the best job at
selling itself to the center-right Flemish electorate.
.