COMPETING PIPELINES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001579 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EPET EU SUBJECT: COMPETING PIPELINES ¶1. (SBU) On September 25 Eurogas, an industrial association of 44 gas companies and federations, held its annual policy conference in Brussels. One of the sessions, "Key Challenges and Opportunities in the Development of Major Infrastructures," was comprised of presentations on the major East-West infrastructure projects: Nabucco, Nord Stream, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP),South Stream, and the Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector (TGI). Most of the presentations contained only general information about the respective projects. However, TGI declared that there is not enough gas in the Caspian region to support all of the proposals, whereas Nabucco mentioned its interests in Russian and Iranian gas. Nabucco -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Martin Schwarzbichler, Head of Business Analysis for Austrian OMV's Gas unit stressed there is large potential for development in the Caspian and Middle East regions - Nabucco's targeted source. He estimated 84.49 trillion cubic meters (tcm) exist in these two regions and an additional 47.65 tcm in Russia alone. Nabucco Gas Pipeline, International is a conglomerate of OMV (Austria),MOL (Hungary),Transgaz (Romania),Bulgargaz (Bulgaria),Botas (Turkey) and RWE (Germany) and is divided into national subsidiaries in Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. ¶3. (SBU) According to Schwarzblicher, transmission would commence in 2013; the first open season for transmission would allot 15 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/a) to the shareholders and the second round would open the remaining 16 bcm/a to third-party bidders. While Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz II field is expected to be the primary source for Nabucco, Schwarzbichler stated that Nabucco would require additional sources to meet its planned 31 bcm/a capacity and cited Iran, Iraq, Egypt and Russia as prospective suppliers. He pointed out that there is already existing infrastructure linking Turkey with Iran and with Russia, but declined to provide any further information about potential Russian supplies. ¶4. (SBU) In subsequent discussions with RWE and OMV, company representatives reiterated the need to look beyond Azerbaijan for gas supplies and acknowledged that Russia and Iran are receiving serious consideration. Jeremy Ellis from RWE added that gas from Turkmenistan is more problematic than accessing gas from Iraq over the short to medium term. Ellis asked for U.S. and EU help in finding ways to encourage gas exports from Iraq and to find mechanisms to help offset the political and security risks of developing and exporting Iraqi gas deposits. TAP --- ¶5. (SBU) The Trans Adriatic Pipeline is a joint venture between Norway's StatoilHydro and Switzerland's EGL to bring Caspian gas to Italy via Turkey and Greece, much like TGI. According to Markus Brokof of EGL, EGL has contracted with the National Iranian Gas Export Company for 5.5 bcm/a and is also seeking to access gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz II field. (Note: Brokof ironically cited Senator Lugar's call for the opening of the Southern Corridor. End note.) StatoilHydro has a 25.5 percent share of Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field and an 8.65 percent share of the ACG field, also in Azerbaijan. Like the other Southern Corridor proposals, TAP has been unable to secure a transit agreement through Turkey. Nord Stream -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Nord Stream is a joint venture between Russia's Gazprom, German E.On and Wintershall Holding (a BASF subsidiary),and Dutch Gasunie. In contrast to the "competing" Southern Corridor proposals, Dr. Maartje van Putten described Nord Stream as one of many components of the EU's long-term energy policy. She said that renewables alone will not meet increasing demand and estimated that the EU will need to import 81 percent of its gas supplies by 2025, compared to 58 percent in 2005. With a capacity of 51 bcm/a, Nordstream will transmit Russian gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea, but van Putten emphasized it as a "European project" with links to ten member states through shareholders and/or contractors. South Stream BRUSSELS 00001579 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶7. (SBU) South Stream is a joint venture between Eni of Italy and Russia's Gazprom, that would transit gas westward under the Black Sea bypassing both Ukraine and Turkey. Conceived subsequent to Nabucco, Carlo Merrigi of Eni denied it was in competition with the other Southern Corridor proposals, despite projecting routes similar to both Nabucco - Bulgaria to Romania and Hungary and TGI - Bulgaria to Greec to Italy. He also insisted there are sufficient supplies to support the 30 bcm project. He did acknowledge several challenges such as access to materials and technology, and most recently access to credit, although he said Eni and South Stream have enough capital for now. TGI --- ¶8. (SBU) The Greece-Italy Interconnector (IGI) is the final phase of the Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector (TGI) project. IGI is a joint venture between Italian Edison and Greek Depa to build a subsea connection called Poseidon across the Adriatic. In describing TGI, Elio Ruggeri of Edison was much more concrete than other presenters. Edison expects European dependence on foreign gas to nearly double in the next 12 years, underscoring the need to open a route for Caspian supplies. Ruggeri said Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Iraq, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan hold about 22% of the world's reserves. Both Iran and Iraq lack infrastructure and pose political challenges, where as Turkmen, Uzbek, and Kazakh supplies appear destined for Russia and China. Thus, he argued, Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz II field, with a potential of 14-16 bcm/a (11-13 likely available for transit) is the most viable mid-term option for Europe. In contrast to Nabucco, TGI, which has only 10 bcm/a capacity, would not need to be supplemented beyond Azerbaijan. Further, Ruggeri pointed out that TGI will utilize existing infrastructure, most which is in place; only 800 km of new pipe is needed to transit gas under the Adriatic. ¶9. (SBU) In a subsequent conversation, Ruggeri said the main obstacle for TGI remains a purchase arrangement between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Turkey originally agreed to a 15 percent take from TGI's flow (a maximum of about 1.5 bcm/a), but has since retracted and is now seeking to contract directly with Azerbaijan for 8 bcm/a. Ruggeri said Prime Minister Berlusconi was seeking to convene his Azeri, Turkish, and Greek counterparts next month in an attempt to finalize the deal. White Stream -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Not represented at the conference was the White Stream gas pipeline project. The UK-based White Stream company is the brainchild of Pipeline Systems Engineering (PSE) and Radon-Ishizumi consulting and engineering companies. The project envisions building a gas pipeline from Georgia across the Black Sea to either Ukraine and/or Romania and then onward to markets in Central and Western Europe. The project, however, so far lacks a major player from the gas production, distribution, or consumption sectors to champion the pipeline. Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The Nabucco, TGI, and the TAP projects share a common challenge negotiating transit agreements with Turkey. The sticking point is how much gas Turkey will need for its own market and how much it will be comfortable allowing to flow onwards to Europe. Contacts at several of the firms involved tell us that Turkey fears its Russian gas contracts, which expire in 2011, may not be renewed. Thus Turkey is more concerned with securing Azeri gas for its domestic consumption rather than serving as a conduit for Europe. Until Turkey's supply fears can be assuaged, it seems unlikely that any of these projects will move forward. Industry and EU officials that we've talked with are well aware of this problem and are all looking for ways to help Turkey with its security-of-supply concerns. ¶12. (SBU) However, even if a transit agreement is reached with Turkey, Nabucco would still require a second source of supply beyond Azerbaijan to make it economically feasible. Nabucco representatives are not optimistic about the prospects of Turkmen gas. Rather, they are more intent on exploring the prospects of supplementing Nabucco with supplies from Russia, Iran or Iraq. They are very much aware BRUSSELS 00001579 003 OF 003 that the former two pose implications for U.S. policy, and perhaps may use this to leverage U.S. guarantees for efforts to develop infrastructure within Iraq. ¶13. (SBU) While Russia's invasion of Georgia has caused the Europeans to refocus their efforts on diversification of supply, the reality is there does not appear to be enough gas in the region to support all of these proposals in the 2010-2015 timeframe. Indeed, one RWE executive echoed Special Envoy Gray's comments that Nord Stream will likely be in competition with any Southern Corridor project for Caspian Gas. In reality, TGI and Nabucco are both competing for the same Azeri gas. Whereas TGI represents the most expeditious way to open the Southern Corridor, Nabucco would bring more gas to a larger market, currently dominated by Russian gas. This begs the question, is the bird in the hand, better than two in the bush? End Comment. .