GAERC: FOCUSES ON SERBIA COMPROMISE WITH LITTLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000153

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2018
TAGS: PREL EAID ESDP ETRD KVPR SR
SUBJECT: GAERC: FOCUSES ON SERBIA COMPROMISE WITH LITTLE
DISCUSSION OF KOSOVO

REF: USEU BRUSSELS 0041

Classified By: USEU Polmincouns Larry Wohlers, for reasons 1.4(b) and (
d).


1. Summary: EU FMs engaged in a protracted discussion of
Serbia at the January 28 GAERC, resulting in a proposal that
Serbia sign an interim political agreement on cooperation
with the EU. Ministers, faced with continuing opposition to
the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement
(SAA) with Serbia, reached an agreement that would actually
be broader in scope than the SAA and would provide a
framework for progress in four areas: political dialogue,
visa liberalization, educational cooperation, and trade.
Serbian FM Jeremic immediately embraced the initiative,
expressing hope of returning to Brussels on February 7 --
four days after Serbian second round elections -- to ink the
agreement. In order to generate momentum quickly, JHA
Commissioner Frattini will visit Belgrade on January 30 to
launch negotiations on visa liberalization. End Summary


Last Minute Maneuvers on Serbia
--------------

2. (C//NF) Faced with Dutch and Belgian opposition to the
signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA)
with Serbia due to Serbia's inability to make progress on its
ICTY obligations, EU FMs at the January 28 GAERC proposed
that Serbia sign an interim political agreement on
cooperation (Text faxed to EUR/ERA). Member state contacts
privately tell us that Ministers engaged in a "rough and
tumble" and "frantic" drafting exercise in order to ensure
the EU could send a positive political signal to Serbia in
lieu of signing the SAA. Slovene FM Rupel was so
preoccupied with the matter, that he asked French FM Kouchner
to chair the Iran discussion. Working unusually without an
advance text or staff groundwork, the Ministers arrived at an
agreement that would actually be broader in scope than the
SAA. However, one Baltic Member State source (protect)
observed the UK and Dutch FM conferring in the corridor on
what appeared to be a UK-prepared text. The agreement would
provide a framework for progress in four areas: political
dialogue, visa liberalization, educational cooperation, and
trade. According to a Commission source, the EU focused on
issues that would have an impact on the lives of "ordinary
Serbian voters," not only the EU-Serbia political
relationship.


3. (SBU) In the agreement, characterized by one contact as
"the most positive statement the EU has made on Serbia to
date," the EU makes clear that political cooperation would be
intensified "with a view to accelerating Serbia's progress
toward the EU, including candidate status." The EU's
invitation states that the offer for "deepening" the
relationship, "leading to membership," would bring concrete
benefits to the people of Serbia, in particular through
"stimulating economic progress, commercial relations by
developing a free trade area, and people to people contacts,
including in particular students." The SAA, traditionally
seen as the last step before an Accession Agreement, is said
to remain the "right vehicle" to take the relationship
forward. Taking up a proposal recently announced by FM
Rupel, the EU also agreed to set up a Task Force with a view
to formulating recommendations to Serbia and the EU council
in order to further the accession process.


Serbian FM: February 3 Vote: "A Referendum on Europe"
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4. (C) Serbian FM Jeremic, who held post-GAERC talks with
the EU troika, hailed this "breakthrough" as a major step on
Serbia's "path to full EU membership" and depicted the second
round of the Serbian presidential election on February 3 as
"a referendum on Europe." Member state and EU interlocutors
admit that the agreement could be perceived as light on
substance, and note that the EU will be watching closely how
Serbian voters receive news of the initiative. If all goes
according to EU plans, the agreement would be signed in
Brussels on February 7. In the meantime, JHA Commissioner
Frattini will travel to Belgrade January 30 to begin
immediate negotiations on visa liberalization.


Little Time for Kosovo Discussions
--------------

5. (C//NF) Ministers did not discuss Kosovo in-depth,
although a UK contact (please protect) said that Swedish FM
Bildt told UK FM Miliband during a private conversation that,
despite Bildt's concerns about EU plans for policing the
North, he would not block agreement on the Kosovo rule of law
mission. As a result, deliberations on the supporting

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language for the mission returned to the Political and
Security committee (PSC). A marathon Jan 30th meeting of the
PSC successfully overcame vocal Cypriot and Dutch objections
to language outlining the legal basis for the concept of
operations for the mission, but have yet to find agreement on
the Joint Action statement that will formally launch the
mission. Contacts tell us that the EU political directors
agreed on the margins of the GAERC to have the Joint Action
ready by Feb 5th.

Comment
--------------

6. (C) The EU's hastily prepared "invitation" to Serbia
served to demonstrate publicly Member States' unity on the
Western Balkans and to send a positive political signal to
Serbians in advance of the February 3 elections. Indeed,
this appears to be the first EU draft agreement in which it
has explicitly offered Serbia a membership perspective. Some
of our Brussels institution contacts worry privately that the
sword may prove double-edged and that it may be difficult for
the EU to pull out of the invitation should Tadic lose. They
also worry that other aspirant countries may at some point
try to demand equal treatment. Nevertheless, for many of the
member state governments, the imperative to make some
positive public gesture towards Serbia at this critical
moment was clearly paramount.

MURRAY

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