PM LETERME LOSES FLEMISH MAJORITY BUT GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001473

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2023
TAGS: POL PGOV BE
SUBJECT: PM LETERME LOSES FLEMISH MAJORITY BUT GOVERNMENT
SURVIVES

REF: BELGIUM 1107 AND PREVIOUS


Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Richard Eason, Reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In protest at the agreement to defer
discussion of institutional reforms in Belgium, the New
Flemish Alliance Party (N-VA) withdrew from its alliance with
Prime Minister Yves Leterme's Christian Democratic Party
(CD&V). The leaves Leterme without a Flemish majority in his
own government. It also leaves the government short of the
two-thirds majority needed to approve institutional reforms,
although two other Flemish parties have tacitly agreed to
support the government on such votes. This latest
development strengthens the role of the liberals, both
Francophone and Flemish, as the combined parties hold more
seats in Parliament than do both Christian Democratic
parties. Flemish Minister-President Kris Peeters, for the
moment, is charged with reviving the institutional reform
talks. Although left without a Flemish majority in his
government, the departure of the N-VA from its alliance with
the CD&V gives Leterme breathing space to turn to other
issues and prepare for the October 14 State of the Union
Address. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Belgian politics is reprising the whirlwind of
talks, political posturing and lack of substantive progress
on issues that the country witnessed in the fall of 2007.
The difference this time is that there is a sitting elected
government in place. This latest cycle was triggered when
Vice Premier and MR (francophone liberal) party President
Didier Reynders announced on Friday, September 19, that the
Francophone parties were willing to address long-standing
institutional issues provided there was no deadline and an
open agenda, meaning that it could include the enlargement of
the Brussels capital region, the redistricting of
Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde (BHV) and the fate of three
Francophone mayors-elect of Brussels suburbs accused of
violating language laws.


3. (C) This statement provoked a loud outcry in Flanders
and it was no surprise that at its Sunday convention, the
N-VA decided to offer Leterme an impossible choice: stick
with us as we move to the opposition or stay as PM and lose
our support. The N-VA had long pushed for deadlines to force
the francophone parties to commit to institutional changes,
most recently in July when the PM was forced to submit his
letter of resignation to the King, which the latter did not
accept.


4. (C) The dispute quickly spread to the Flemish regional
government where the Flemish liberals (the Open VLD) and the
Flemish Socialists (the SP.A) called for the resignation of
N-VA Sports Minister Geert Bourgeois from the Flemish
regional government. They argued that since the party was
turning its back on institutional negotiations, Bourgeois had
automatically isolated himself from his Flemish colleagues.
(NOTE: Bourgeois was the only N-VA politician serving in
either the federal or Flemish regional government. END
NOTE.). Despite a lukewarm defense by the CD&V, Bourgeois
stepped down on Monday.


5. (C) Attention then turned to the Francophone Liberals
Sunday night when, after discussions with PM Leterme,
Minister-President Kris Peeters announced that the
Francophone parties had made a major about-face and were
suddenly no longer insisting on including B-H-V in the
institutional discussions. This could mean that the
Francophone parties would allow the controversial BHV bill to
continue its course in the federal parliament, something they
had been resisting strongly but which would move the issue
off center stage. Peeters then held talks with the
Francophone parties throughout the day on Monday, finally
confirming that the Francophone parties were not only willing
to talk but to conclude at least partial agreements before
the June 2009 regional elections.


6. (C) COMMENT: The latest developments in Belgian
politics may be, in part, a blessing in disguise for Leterme.
Although he has lost his Flemish majority in the Federal
Parliament, there has long been a tacit agreement with the
Flemish socialists and greens to support the CD&V on
institutional reform issues, which would give Leterme the
two-thirds majority he needs should any institutional reform
actually come to a vote. In addition, moving the BHV issue
to the Parliament for long debate and review may allow the
government to try to get back to the job of governing.
Furthermore, Belgian politicians are increasingly focusing on
next June's regional elections and sidelining BHV would
remove a major distraction, for now. But Leterme's absence
during many of the recent events does nothing to restore his
already bruised political image nor lifted any of the clouds
of ineffectiveness circling around him that date back to the
long, labored birth of this coalition government.


7. (C) COMMENT (cont.): It remains to be seen what all
this means for Deputy Premier and MR President Reynders. The
Liberals, on both sides of the linguistic border, are now the
largest party in the governing coalition. Christian Democrat
Kris Peeters has the unenviable task of trying to move ahead
institutional reforms, while Reynders can lay the groundwork
for MR taking on the long-entrenched Parti Socialiste in
Wallonia in the June regional elections. He can also use his
position as Finance Minister to fund a bit of pork barrel
politics. And one should never forget that former Flemish
Liberal PM Guy Verhofstadt is still seen as the only Belgian
politician able to appeal to both flemish and francophones,
nor that Foreign Minister Karel DeGucht, former President of
the Flemish Liberals, is rumored to have ambitions to be
Prime Minister.