FORTHCOMING EU FONMIN MEETING (GAERC) SEPTEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001419 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/WE K SHARP, BELGRADE PASS TO PODGORICA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2018 TAGS: EU PHUM PREL PGOVZL ZI SO TU YI RS BE SUBJECT: FORTHCOMING EU FONMIN MEETING (GAERC) SEPTEMBER 15-16, BELGIAN RESPONSE TO OUR DEMARCHE REF: STATE 096598 Classified By: (U) Classified by Elizabeth Ewing, Acting Pol/Econ Couns elor. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) On September 12, MFA Director for EU External Affairs Filip David told Poloff Heimann the following: ¶2. (C) Zimbabwe David said that the COREPER (i.e., EU Permreps)-drafted conclusions of the forthcoming GAERC included extending the EU sanctions beyond what they are now -- though David was not sure that they would include all of what the U.S. sanctions program contains. But, given the overnight news that "apparently" the two sides have reached -- though not yet signed -- an agreement, the EU fonmins are likely to want to hold off until the next GAERC (October 13) making any statement in order to take the time to examine the agreement closely. If during this weekend, however, developments suggest that the agreement is a "non-starter," then the GAERC will probably go forward with the sanctions statement as drafted. ¶3. (SBU) Somalia EU's intention to launch a naval operation is one with which all members agree and will be handled at the GAERC as an " A' point," meaning that it will appear in the conclusions of the GAERC without any further discussion. There is, however, nothing in that text that specifically refers to the NATO-EU framework. The EU, David says, is experiencing a "growing understanding" of just how bad the piracy problem is for EU and international safety and security at sea in the Somali and Horn straits. ¶4. (C) Serbia --Serbia and Georgia (see septel) will be the two main topics of discussion at the GAERC. David explained that the main question about Serbia to be considered at the GAERC is whether the EU will unfreeze the "interim agreement" (i.e., the economic portion) of the Stabilization and Association Agreement that was previously signed between the EU Commission and Council and Serbia, but which has not begun a ratification process -- neither at the European Parliament nor at member-state parliaments. Indeed, the agreement's ratification process had been entirely frozen since the GAERC of April 29 pronounced a GAERC conclusion to that effect. David said that the purpose of freezing the entire agreement, with its Commission and member-state competencies, was in order to pressure Serbia to turn in indicted war criminals to the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). He noted that a similar strategy had worked with Croatia. --Now that the Serbs have handed over Karadzic to the ICTY, the question for the GAERC is: Should the Serbs have the ratification process of the economic part of the agreement unfrozen to encourage them to turn over the other major fugitives? David explained that Belgian Foreign Minister De Gucht and his Dutch counterpart Verhaegen are both deeply committed to the eventual entry into the EU as full members of all the Western Balkan countries. But these two ministers insist that, as part of their progress towards that goal, the candidate countries must provide "full, unconditional cooperation with the ICTY". De Gucht and Verhaegen think that the correct professional, non-political person to decide whether the Serbs are meeting that criterion is the ICTY Attorney General, Serge Brammertz. Brammertz is leaving Belgrade today and will give his assessment to the EU. David expects that what the A-G describes will not meet the Belgo-Dutch requirements for unfreezing the ratification process for the economic portion of the agreement, much less the entire agreement. --The GOB believes that EULEX deployment should be to every part of Kosovo, including the North, though "perhaps not immediately." The GOB also favors extension of the UNMIK mandate. ¶5. (C) Turkey: Not on the Menu this time. Although Turkey does not figure on this GAERC agenda, when BRUSSELS 00001419 002 OF 002 poloff noted favorable mention of Turkey's actions in the Caucasus by FonMin De Gucht as reported in the Brussels paper Le Soir September 11, David pointed out that the GOB has always favored Turkish entry into the EU, however long it takes, and insists that no rpt no additional conditions be added to those in the original GAERC conclusion of Cophenagen in 1993. ¶6. (SBU) Georgia: The GoB response to our demarche for the GAERC on Georgia is being sent septel. FOX .