DE GUCHT SEPT 3 TRIP TO MOSCOW; EXCHANGE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001354 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2018 TAGS: EUN PREL PGOV GG RS YI AF PK BE SUBJECT: DE GUCHT SEPT 3 TRIP TO MOSCOW; EXCHANGE WITH BELGIAN MFA AHEAD OF EU FONMIN (GYMNICH) MEETING SEPT 5-6 REF: A. A) STATE 93272 ¶B. B) STATE 93264 Classified By: POLOFF JUDITH HEIMANN FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) De Gucht September 3 Call in Moscow on Lavrov - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - -- - - -- - - - - - - -: During a September 2 call on MFA Deputy Cabinet Chiefs Fons Borginon (multilateral affairs) and Thomas Lambert (European bilateral affairs, who attended the September 1 EU Summit), they explained to POLOFF that Foreign Minister De Gucht is doing a roundtrip to Moscow tomorrow (September 3rd) to speak with Russian Fonmin Lavrov. The two aides explained that De Gucht has long had an invitation from Lavrov to come to Moscow and had planned to take it up in December but chose to go now, in order to take advantage of the relationship he built with Lavrov when De Gucht was chairing the OSCE two years ago. They pointed out that De Gucht, because of the OSCE experience, is more familiar, as well as perhaps more deeply interested, in the area concerned in the present Georgia/Russia/energy dependence crisis than most EU FonMins. Also, when the Belgians speak, the Russians know that it is not because of a desperate national dependence on Russian fuel (since Belgium gets most of its fuel elsewhere). ¶2. (SBU) Asked what De Gucht is likely to say to Lavrov, they referred to today's (Sept 2) De Tijd which has an interview with De Gucht in which, under the heading, "EU Must Work as a Cartel to Buy Its Energy." De Gucht says that doing that will help make a better balance in relations with Russia. Europe must also have a joint authority to invest in alternatives, such as the Nabucco pipeline and in coordinating the European distribution system so that it won't be so easy for Russia to play the individual countries off against each other. ¶3. (SBU) De Gucht also is cited in the newspaper article as saying that Russia's recognition of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia is a mistake on Russia's part, if it hoped by doing so o underline its international power; instead this action leaves it internationally isolated. On the Russians' part, it was not logical or well thought-through. This recognition raises questions about Tchetchens, about Nagorno-Karabakh, etc. ¶4. (C) These aides to Minister De Gucht thought De Gucht would say to Lavrov that the two sides need to keep talking to one another and that Russia needs to de-escalate the current crisis by pulling Russia's troops all the way back to where they were pre-August 7. De Gucht might also point out that, while the Russian actions might look like giving them a short-term advantage, in the medium and long-term, it will not have turned out to be a good thing for them because it weakens their relationship with Europe and weakens Russia's position under international law. It is for the latter reason, among others, that the all-Russian security mechanism needs to be replaced by some international one, ideally the UN. ¶5. (C) MFA SEES THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON GEORGIA CRISIS AS DRAWING THE EU TOGETHER - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- - - - -- These aides were pleased to note that European Council President-in-Office Sarkozy, as well as Barroso and Solana are going together to Moscow to call on the Russian President, PM and FonMin and are then going on to Tbilisi to do the same. For these three entities to work together so closely is new. They were also pleased that the extraordinary European Council of September 1 was able to get all 27 member-states on board within the programmed time, in spite of there having been so little pre-planning time. When poloff suggested that some would have wished for sanctions against Russia, given the excellent and strong language of the European Council's condemnation of Russia's unacceptable action, these MFA aides said that Russia would certainly see as a clear indication that Europe's strong statements were backed by actions ("positive sanctions," they called them) in the many different, concrete and prompt ways in which Europe has shown it is prepared to help Georgia. ¶6. (C) GEORGIA AT THE GYMNICH - - - - - -- - - - - --- - Poloff went down the list in Ref A: BRUSSELS 00001354 002 OF 002 --Regarding an ESDP mission, MFA Deputy Cabinet Chief to Minister De Gucht for Multilateral Affairs Fons Borginon said the mission will definitely be civilian but that final decisions about it will probably be discussed at the Gymnich but not decided until the GAERC (EU FonMins) EU Council meeting of September 15. --Regarding OSCE Monitors, Belgium had already offered up to ten monitors and one of them is already in Tbilisi. He is from the police and others may be civil or military, depending upon what OSCE wants and who Belgium has ready to deploy. -- Regarding reconstruction, a joint EU Commission and Council Secretariat assessment team has been in Georgia since August 22 and is focusing especially on recontruction of damaged transportation and communication. -- As part of strengthening the ties of partners and friends in the region near Russia, the Belgians pointed out that the item number 9 in the Conclusions of the September 1 EC Council extraordinary summit on Georgia/Russia was put in thanks to the Belgians. It reads (poloff's translation): "The recent events illustrate the need for Europe to intensify its efforts regarding the security of the supply of its energy. The European Council (i.e., EU heads of state and government) urges the Council, in cooperation with the Commission to examine possible initiaves for that purpose, in particular as regards the diversification of the sources of energy and the routes for supplying it." --Asked about the offer Belgium has made of 500,000 euros of humanitarian aid for Georgia, they said they thought it was more likely to go via the Red Cross, because that organization is already in place or about to be. ¶7. (C) NON-GEORGIA AT THE GYMNICH - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Alerted that the Gymnich will not have time for all the items originally envisioned (ref b),POLOFF asked which items were most likely to be raised. They said Afghanistan/Pakistan and Serbia/ICJ. --Afghanistan/Pakistan: Pointing out that Minister of Defense Pieter De Crem is currently in Afghanistan, greeting the arrival there of 4 Belgian F16s and the accompanying troops, they added that this is a very difficult dossier to handle in Belgium and that public opinion is increasingly impatient with the current emphasis on primarily military solutions in the region. They implied that, given the head of steam that is building up in the media and in the political parties and which will probably lead to a parliamentary hearing on the matter of the F16s this month, the GOB needs to be able to show that new approaches, not so heavily focused on military solutions, are in the process of being developed. --Serbia and the ICJ Advisory Opinion on Kosovo: These aides said the EU-27 are trying to develop a common position on this matter. They hinted that Belgium's position might include a willingness to support a request for an ICJ advisory opinion, since it is a step forward from Serbia's previous unwillingness to entertain the idea of less than 100 percent Kosovo is part of Serbia. Also, the argument that UNSCR 1244 gives a legal basis for Kosovo's sovereignty is somewhat weakened if we who hold that view are unwilling to let ICJ judges look at it. BUSH .