TFGG01: GAERC LIKELY TO SUPPORT FRENCH MEDIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001245

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG RU
SUBJECT: TFGG01: GAERC LIKELY TO SUPPORT FRENCH MEDIATION
RATHER THAN ISSUE STRONG STATEMENT

Classified By: USEU POLMC Chris Davis for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Read-outs from back-to-back PSC and COREPER
II meetings held August 12 indicate that there may not be
formal Conclusions from the GAERC on August 13. Rather,
there will likely be a French EU Presidency declaration
representing EU consensus for support for its mediation
efforts, but not requiring formal approval of all 27 member
states. The French Presidency wants to leave Sarkozy and
Kouchner maximum room to maneuver, as well as acknowledge
developments on the ground. The GAERC itself will hear
debriefs from Kouchner and OSCE CiO Stubb, as well as a
briefing on EC humanitarian assistance options from
Commissioner Olli Rehn. End Summary


2. (C) According to sources inside the PSC and COREPER II
meetings held this afternoon in Brussels, the French
Presidency was not inclined to try to negotiate Council
Conclusions on Georgia for the August 13 GAERC. To do so, in
the face of opposition from Berlin, Rome and others, risked
exposing differences among the member states, when President
Sarkozy's main concern is preserving EU unity for dealing
with Russia and Georgia. (Note: President Sarkozy made just
this point about EU unity during a press conference held in
Moscow with President Medvedev, part of which was broadcast
live into the PSC meeting. End Note.)


3. (C) Despite the reported efforts of the Baltic States,
Sweden, Poland, the Netherlands, and the UK to propose
strongly worded Conclusions to the Foreign Ministers meeting
tomorrow, the French Presidency position for an EU Presidency
declaration at the GAERC prevailed, at least for now. Some
in the PSC and COREPER meetings reportedly argued that their
foreign ministers would not take the trouble to assemble in
Brussels the next day and not come to some formal GAERC
Conclusion.


4. (C) The GAERC will convene at 10:00 AM local time on
August 13, when French FM Kouchner and OSCE
Chairman-in-Office Stubb will brief the assembled Foreign
Ministers. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn will also
brief the GAERC on the Commission's plans for humanitarian
assistance. Much of the discussion at the GAERC is expected
to focus on what the EU can do on the ground, particularly
concerning humanitarian assistance.

SILVERBERG



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