TFGG01: GAERC LIKELY TO SUPPORT FRENCH MEDIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001245 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV GG RU SUBJECT: TFGG01: GAERC LIKELY TO SUPPORT FRENCH MEDIATION RATHER THAN ISSUE STRONG STATEMENT Classified By: USEU POLMC Chris Davis for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Read-outs from back-to-back PSC and COREPER II meetings held August 12 indicate that there may not be formal Conclusions from the GAERC on August 13. Rather, there will likely be a French EU Presidency declaration representing EU consensus for support for its mediation efforts, but not requiring formal approval of all 27 member states. The French Presidency wants to leave Sarkozy and Kouchner maximum room to maneuver, as well as acknowledge developments on the ground. The GAERC itself will hear debriefs from Kouchner and OSCE CiO Stubb, as well as a briefing on EC humanitarian assistance options from Commissioner Olli Rehn. End Summary ¶2. (C) According to sources inside the PSC and COREPER II meetings held this afternoon in Brussels, the French Presidency was not inclined to try to negotiate Council Conclusions on Georgia for the August 13 GAERC. To do so, in the face of opposition from Berlin, Rome and others, risked exposing differences among the member states, when President Sarkozy's main concern is preserving EU unity for dealing with Russia and Georgia. (Note: President Sarkozy made just this point about EU unity during a press conference held in Moscow with President Medvedev, part of which was broadcast live into the PSC meeting. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Despite the reported efforts of the Baltic States, Sweden, Poland, the Netherlands, and the UK to propose strongly worded Conclusions to the Foreign Ministers meeting tomorrow, the French Presidency position for an EU Presidency declaration at the GAERC prevailed, at least for now. Some in the PSC and COREPER meetings reportedly argued that their foreign ministers would not take the trouble to assemble in Brussels the next day and not come to some formal GAERC Conclusion. ¶4. (C) The GAERC will convene at 10:00 AM local time on August 13, when French FM Kouchner and OSCE Chairman-in-Office Stubb will brief the assembled Foreign Ministers. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn will also brief the GAERC on the Commission's plans for humanitarian assistance. Much of the discussion at the GAERC is expected to focus on what the EU can do on the ground, particularly concerning humanitarian assistance. SILVERBERG .