BURMA: SOLANA DISCUSSES BURMA WITH TIMOR-LESTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001234 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/AA, EAP/MLS LAURA SCHEIBE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV ETRD PREL ETTC KINR EUN TM SUBJECT: BURMA: SOLANA DISCUSSES BURMA WITH TIMOR-LESTE PRESIDENT RAMOS-HORTA REF: A. STATE 83719 ¶B. USEU BRUSSELS 1233 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Christopher Davis for reaso ns 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) While delivering demarche on the JADE act legislation (ref A),Leo Schulte-Nordholt, South-East Asia Desk Officer at the EU Council Secretariat, briefed us on the July 22 visit to Brussels of the president of Timor-Leste, Jos Ramos-Horta. Shulte-Nordholt participated in a breakfast with HiRep Javier Solana and Ramos-Horta which focused on the situation in Burma. In his first trip since the assassination attempt five months ago, the Timorese President expressed strong personal convictions about the inefficacy of sanctions and called them counterproductive. Ramos-Horta revealed to Solana that he had spent much of the 1980s in Burma illegally, working with guerrilla groups. He said that when he arrived in Burma for a recent state visit, a Burmese General who was aware of his history with the guerillas welcomed him at the airport by noting that this was his first "official" visit to the country. Ramos-Horta argued that the regime will remain stable as long as the world continues to isolate Burma, and compared the current situation to that of South Africa during apartheid. He claimed that it was internal processes - not sanctions - that ultimately brought about a change in government in South Africa. He also stressed the complexity of the situation due to the presence of multiple insurgent movements but opined that neither the generals nor the insurgents could stand without the other. Though "personally opposed to sanctions," Solana pointed out that sanctions may not be perfect but that they make a statement. ¶2. (C) Solana asked how a transition to democracy in Burma might work. Ramos-Horta suggested Indonesia as an emerging key player in the process of democratization in South-East Asia and as a potential partner in a Burmese transition. He said that Indonesian President Yudhoyono recently told him that he was eager for Jakarta to re-assert its historical central role in South-East Asian diplomacy. He also advised that the EU use the example and lessons of South Africa as a model for a transition to democracy in Burma. SILVERBERG .