U.S.-EU AFRICA TROIKA ADDRESSES SUDAN, CHAD, HORN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001090 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF EUN SUBJECT: U.S.-EU AFRICA TROIKA ADDRESSES SUDAN, CHAD, HORN, DRC, ZIMBABWE Classified By: Deputy Pol MinCouns Alyce Tidball for reasons 1.4 (b and d). 1.(U) On June 30, the last day of the Slovenian EU Presidency, AF DAS James Swan led the U.S. in its biannual troika discussion with the EU on African issues. Separately, he met with EU political-military officials June 30 and with members of the Political and Security Committee (PSC) July 1. The main topics of discussion were the future of the EU's military mission to Chad and Central African Republic (EUFOR); sanctions, negotiated power-sharing arrangements and other options in Zimbabwe; piracy off the Somali coast; and ideas for reforming the security sector in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). EUFOR CHAD: What will follow? -------------- 2.(C) EU officials, from the Council Secretariat to the pol-mil staff to the PSC, said decisively in separate meetings that there would be no political will from member states to extend the EUFOR Chad mission one day beyond its 12-month mandate. While acknowledging that the mission has thus far gone relatively well, officials say they are reluctant to set a precedent that might deter member states from committing troops for future ESDP deployments. The plan has always been to have EUFOR replaced by UN peacekeeping troops, but EU officials worry that a dearth of trained African troops, the pace of UN DPKO deployments, and competition from UNAMID, MONUC, AMISOM and other peacekeeping operations will conspire to postpone the UN follow-on mission beyond the March 15, 2009 end date of EUFOR. EU officials say there may be some room for a short EUFOR extension, but only if it were a bridge to a definite UN handover or if it involved rehatting EUFOR troops under UN auspices. Officials from the EU, UN, and the EUFOR operational headquarters returned in late June from a mid-term assessment mission in Chad and CAR which will form the basis of High Representative Javier Solana's report to the UN in September. Jean-Christophe Belliard, Africa advisor to Solana in the Council Secretariat, said he is convinced that EUFOR's presence has deterred Sudan from retaliating against Chad for rebel attacks on Khartoum. Swan said the U.S. continues to support politically the EUFOR deployment as well as a follow-on UN force. Sudan: EU feels Darfur, CPA fatigue -------------- 3.(C) Belliard said he believes the EU and the international community have succumbed to a certain fatigue over Darfur and north-south issues, which is just what the Bashir regime wants. He said the EU believes it got little value for all the money it invested in AMIS (more than 200 million euro, according to Commission official Pierre Seailles). Nonetheless, Belliard argued that the EU and U.S. must continue to push DPKO to deploy UNAMID fully and convince China that it is in its long-term economic interest to cooperate with the international community in Sudan. Swan noted that the splintering of the Sudanese rebel groups has made it difficult to implement the Darfur Peace Agreement, and that Special Envoy Williamson has suspended talks on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement until all sides indicate a willingness to implement it. The U.S. is "reasonably satisfied" with the Abyei roadmap and is looking to the UN to begin organizing more robustly the scheduled 2009 elections, he said. Somalia: Combating pirates -------------- 4.(C) DAS Swan outlined several positive developments in Somalia, including the departure of PM Gedi, the arrival of SRSG Ould Abdullah, and the cease-fire agreement between the Transitional Federal Government and the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia. The U.S., he said, prefers a small, tightly focused peacekeeping operation limited to protecting transitional institutions and actors and some humanitarian agencies rather than the UN's vision of a 27,000-strong force that would deploy when all parties involved in the violence signed on to a peace agreement. The U.S. is close to authorizing support for a second battalion of Burundian peacekeepers, and Uganda is ready to send a second battalion if it can find support for training and troop transport, he said. In a meeting with the DG VIII political-military BRUSSELS 00001090 002 OF 003 staff, Didier Lenoir, Head of Unit for Operations and Exercises, said the EU is considering a number of initiatives to combat piracy, with the most likely alternative being a warship that would travel a set route at set times to provide protection for any private vessels that wanted to join it voluntarily. Swan said the U.S. military is wary of picking up pirates at sea for fear of being unable to then turn them over to any willing and competent authorities. Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions persist -------------- 5.(C) Roger Moore, European Commission Director for East and Southern Africa, said Commissioner Louis Michel came away from recent meetings with PMs Meles and Isaias believing that neither is really looking for a solution to their lingering border dispute. "Both are willing to talk, but not to each other," Moore said. Belliard highlighted Michel's "exceptional access" to both leaders. Swan questioned a recent 120 million euro allocation by the European Commission for Eritrea and said the U.S. believes the regime should be further isolated. Moore said the money has been allocated, but not yet programmed or transferred, and noted that Michel is beginning to become disillusioned by the lack of results in Eritrea. Great Lakes: SSR elusive -------------- 6.(C) The EU has been frustrated by the pace of security sector reform in the DRC, particularly with what it sees as President Kabila's inability to deal effectively with the FDLR, Belliard said. In addition to having very poor relations with Belgium, the DRC has a growing rift with the EU. "He doesn't really listen to us," said Belliard of Kabila. Noting that the Chinese have stepped into the void, Belliard said, "Kabila has new friends who don't ask questions." Manuel Lopez Blanco, Commission Director for West and Central Africa, said the Commission's priorities include implementation of the Goma and Nairobi agreements and September elections in Rwanda. Swan emphasized the remaining security and military challenges and said commitment is not sufficient without capacity. He said the U.S. has proposed a surge in MONUC capacity to the UN to deal with security issues in eastern Congo. Swan further noted that some of the talented people within the MLC opposition party may rise through the ranks now that leader Bemba has exiled himself to Europe and been indicted by the International Criminal Court. Ken Hume, strategic planning officer at DG VIII, said his office has proposed five options for further EU involvement in the DRC to 27 member states: assisting the UN with operational planning, coordinating support to Congo from external partners, providing satellite imagery, providing planning and enabling support for brassage, and supplying additional international military force. Zimbabwe: U.S. and EU must act swiftly -------------- 7.(C) Swan's meetings with the EU took place the day after Mugabe was sworn in for another presidential term, and both the U.S. and EU agreed that the West must not act as if it were business as usual. The EU is discussing next steps, including expanded sanctions against leaders of the ruling party. Belliard said many member states overestimate the African Union's capacity to intervene. "Some in the EU look to the AU the way an insect looks to the light, and that's not good," he said. Portuguese PSC Ambassador Carlos Durrant Pais said a negotiated government of national unity seems to be the only way forward and said he would like to see Kenyan Vice President Odinga play a role in mediating a political agreement in Zimbabwe. UK Counselor Martin Reynolds said July is a critical month for the EU which must act "quickly and decisively" at the JulyGAERC before the August recess. "By September,Mugabe will be pretty well entrenched and intrnational opinion will be ossified," he said. Comment -------------- 8.(C) The troika discussions highlighted the difference in approach between the U.S. and the EU over Eritrea. The Commission, in particular, under the leadership o Commissioner Michel, continues to believe that dialogue and engagement with Isaias is possible and potentially productive. Otherwise, the U.S. and EU were largely in BRUSSELS 00001090 003 OF 003 agreement over issues in Africa and appropriate next steps for the international community. Because of poor relations currently between Belgium and the government of the DRC, and to a lesser extent between the EU and the DRC, the EU will be looking increasingly to the U.S. in the near term to deliver messages to Kabila. The EU has requested continued U.S. political support for a UN follow-on mission to EUFOR in eastern Chad. Zimbabwe is the biggest African issue on the EU's agenda at the moment, and there is continued interest in working with the U.S. and others on sanctions as well as negotiations toward a possible government of national unity. End comment. 9.(U) DAS Swan has cleared this report. WOHLERS .