ST. VINCENT OPPOSITION IN A DISMAL STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000690

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR XL
SUBJECT: ST. VINCENT OPPOSITION IN A DISMAL STATE

Classified By: CDA D. Brent Hardt Reason 1.4 (b/d)

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Summary
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1. (C) St. Vincent's New Democratic Party (NDP) is dispirited
and mired in self pity, and appears incapable -- despite
potential openings -- to mount any serious opposition to
Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves. The party's lackluster
leadership has had difficulty targeting their criticisms and
making them stick. With money scarce and Prime Minister
Gonsalves running circles around the opposition in
parliament, the NDP is unlikely to be able to mount a serious
challenge unless former PM Sir Jams Mitchell comes out of
retirement. End summary.

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NDP Adrift
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2. (C) Lacking strong leadership and a clear sense of
direction, the NDP is a party adrift. Opposition leader
Arnhim Eustace, while undeniably intelligent and acutely
aware of the problems facing the country, is a singularly
uncharismatic and uninspiring figure who is unable to
translate his technocratic expertise into any kind of viable
or sustained political activity. Without a stronger leader,
the NDP's influence will be muted. Sir James Mitchell, the
previous Prime Minister and former leader of the NDP, has not
communicated with the NDP about a return to politics and the
NDP leadership is not necessarily excited about a potential
homecoming. In a September conversation with the Ambassador,
he privately criticized the party for being unable to seize
openings given them by Prime Minister Gonsalves' personal
scandals, political overreaches, recent associations with
Iran, and huge expenditures on an unnecessary new airport.
Neither confirming nor denying a return to the political
stage, Mitchell stated "timing is everything" and "you need
to let the demand build up, you win these things before they
begin," suggesting that if the climate is not ripe for a NDP
win, he will not return for the next election.

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Their Man Friday
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3. (C) One glimmer of hope for the NDP may be Godwin Friday.
Friday is currently serving in the parliament representing a
constituency from the Grenadine Island of Bequia. An
articulate, well respected and slightly more charismatic
Canadian-trained lawyer, he has a solid grasp of the
challenges ahead. During meetings with poloff, other NDP
leaders including Eustace valued his opinion and often turned
to Friday for answers. Friday does not share the same
apocalyptic view of the future other members of the NDP have.
Friday is also the NDP leader best equipped to deal with the
press, and he has a good analytical grasp of both domestic
political and economic issues. Aside from Eustace, Friday
appears to be the only other real option for leadership in
the NDP as currently constructed. However, as Friday
represents the same district Mitchell would contest, he is
likely in no hurry to welcome the former PM back into the
fold. And, without an infusion of strong, new (or returning)
leadership and political savvy, the NDP and its nearly-empty
war chest is ill-equipped to generate a strong election
campaign.

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Voter Fraud Conspiracy Theory
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4. (C) Having failed to make political hay out of two rape
charges brought against the PM or the controversial new
relationship with Iran, NDP leaders are currently pinning
their hopes on an election conspiracy theory with Prime
Minister Gonsalves at the center. There are no absentee
ballots in St. Vincent, and the law requires a voter's name
be removed from the registered voters list after living
abroad for five years. Only Vincentians living in St.
Vincent may vote and must be present to do so. In October
2009, St. Vincent and the Grenadines will celebrate its 30th
anniversary of independence, and the Gonsalves administration
is encouraging all Vincentians to return home for the
celebration. The opposition believes Gonsalves plans to call
elections either just before or just after the 30th
independence celebration. Skirting the election laws, he
will maximize his support by allowing returning Vincentians
to vote. In such a small country, elections can be decided
by just a few votes. In the last election, the NDP lost
three parliamentary seats by 14, 29, and 36 votes. With only
15 seats in parliament, every vote counts.


5. (C) Gonsalves has so far shown an impressive ability to
weather scandal and controversy, and likely has little to
fear and much to gain from moving forward with swelling the
voter rolls for the next election. Most recently, he
allegedly used government and private connections to bribe
his second alleged rape victim with cash, property and
scholarships, effectively ending any potential future case
against him. Gonsalves is quick to threaten law suits
against his accusers and anyone willing to broadcast or print
their statements. He also cunningly sidesteps any political
landmines by redirecting attention to anything but his own
misdeeds, turning virtually every economic or political issue
into a referendum on party loyalty -- which, through his
strong charisma and blatant populist programs, he wins
handily. His populist refutation of the Ambassador's show of
concern over new relations with Iran garnered support not
just within St. Vincent, but also among the old-school
anti-American elements elsewhere in CARICOM. And, when all
else fails, he pulls out his persecution arguments, claiming
he is being targeted by drug smugglers for his hard stand
(sic) against narco-trafficking.

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Comment
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6. (C) Unless the opposition can reorganize itself, which
seems improbable in the short term, Prime Minister Gonsalves
will likely have an easy time when he calls elections, which
are constitutionally due by December 2010. The NDP
leadership appears woeful and lost, lacking ideas on how to
move forward and mount a serious challenge to Gonsalves.
Most embassy contacts believe elections will take place in
2009, at least one year prior to the end of the current term.
The only wild card in the deck is Sir James Mitchell, who
has the experience and, more importantly, the gravitas and
personal charisma to make a fight of it. So far, though, the
cagey ex-PM has held his cards close, hinting to us that he
might be interested in getting back into the game but noting
that the time is not yet ripe for him to challenge for the
NDP leadership and wage a campaign against a well-organized
and well-financed ULP.
HARDT