RAPE VICTIM DROPS CASE; GONSALVES SET FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000584

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL XL
SUBJECT: RAPE VICTIM DROPS CASE; GONSALVES SET FOR
ELECTIONS IF HE CHOOSES

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires D. Brent Hardt, reasons 1.4 (b and d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Alleged rape victim and police constable Michelle
Andrews, who filed rape charges against Prime Minister
Gonsalves in January, replaced her lawyers and discontinued
all legal proceedings against the Prime Minister in a snap
decision that caught her previous legal counsel completely by
surprise. According to reliable Embassy contacts, Gonsalves,
through a third party, pressured and finally bribed Andrews
and her mother to drop the case -- leading to speculation
that Gonsalves decided to resolve the matter in anticipation
of calling early elections. With the opposition disorganized
and demoralized and with construction on a new airport
underway, elections sooner rather than later could well be
advantageous to Gonsalves' reelection.

--------------
RAPE CHARGES DROPPED
--------------


2. (U) On September. 17, Caribbean Net News reported that
alleged victim Michelle Andrews dropped all rape proceedings
against Prime Minister Gonsalves. Andrews, who filed the
rape allegations against Gonsalves in January, had previously
contended that Gonsalves raped her while she was on duty at
the Prime Minister's official residence on January 1.
Andrews initially retained the services of two prominent
lawyers, Nicole Sylvester and Kay Bacchus-Browne. The
allegations were subsequently discontinued by the Director of
Public Prosecutions, Colin Williams. Andrews and her lawyers
challenged the discontinuation in the St. Vincent High Court
and the Eastern Caribbean Court of Appeals, however both
challenges were defeated. In August, Sylvester and
Bacchus-Browne filed documents in the family court system in
an effort to continue the case.



3. (U) On September 12, without consulting her lawyers and
while Nicole Sylvester was off island, Andrews retained a new
lawyer, Judy Martin, from the law firm Marks, Martin and
Associates. Ronald Marks of the same firm is an active
member of the Gonsalves' ruling Unity Labor Party (ULP) and
previously served as a senator in Gonsalves' ULP government.
On behalf of the victim, Martin filed court documents on
September 15 discontinuing all of the claims against the
defendant. Sylvester and Bacchus-Browne were not notified by
the victim that she was changing lawyers and, her previous
counsel contends, the normal legal process of notification
was not followed.

--------------
VICTIM BRIBED?
--------------


4. (C) Ahead of the news story, Embassy contacts anticipated
that a deal was in the making. They noted that an insurance
company executive with ties to the Gonsalves government,
Beresford Phillips, was the likely conduit through which
Andrews was offered a payoff to drop charges. Phillips is on
the ULP's short list to contest one of the constituencies
held by the opposition and serves as the Chairman of the St.
Vincent Housing Board. Reportedly he offered the victim,
Michelle Andrews, US$185,000 cash, a government subsidized
low-income house worth US$112,000, and an opportunity to
study abroad. Andrew's mother, no longer able to handle the
stress and weakened by the entire ordeal, played a large role
in convincing her daughter to sell out, contacts report. The
cash portion of the payoff was deposited into Andrew's
mother's bank account in Canada.

--------------
STAGE SET FOR EARLY ELECTIONS
--------------

Q_QQQ&CxQ'QMdQQ. (C) If the political winds and polls show he has a
favorable chance of victory, Andrews' previous lawyers,
Sylvester and Bacchus-Brown, and opposition leaders believe
Gonsalves is clearing the decks ahead of calling early
elections. Leaders of the opposition New Democratic Party
speculated that Gonsalves will call elections sometime in the
first half of 2009, Sylvester believes it will come in the
next three months, but said Gonsalves would hold any plans of
elections close to his chest.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------



6. (C) This latest development clearly took the alleged
victim's previous lawyers completely by surprise. A parallel
announcement in local press that lawyers' tax returns in St.
Vincent would be coming under closer scrutiny probably did
not go unnoticed in the legal community either. With the
PM's friends now serving as the alleged victim's counsel,
this case is likely closed. The opposition, meanwhile, seems
singularly unable to mount any pressure on the PM despite two
rape allegations and a controversial decision to initiate
diplomatic ties with Iran -- issues on which former PM Jon
Mitchell recently told the Ambassador that "any idiot could
make something out of."


7. (C) With this case behind him, the opposition in the
doldrums, and with the recently-announced groundbreaking on
his airport project, Gonsalves is certainly in a good
position to call elections. If he does, absent Mitchell
retaking leadership of the opposition (something he has not
ruled out),Gonsalves would stand a good chance of securing a
second term. However, as Mitchell noted to the Ambassador,
calling early elections would mean foregoing 2 years in power
to gain three (i.e., a new 5-year term). With that outlook,
it would make sense for Gonsalves to hold out as long as he
can before calling elections, to maximize the time the party
could stay in power. As long as airport construction
continues and the opposition remains in disarray, and
assuming he can restrain himself from further indiscretions,
Gonsalves appears to be in the political catbird's seat for
the time being.
OURISMAN