RESPONSE TO DEMARCHE ON BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000136 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB, EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2018 TAGS: PREL PHUM LO BO EU SUBJECT: RESPONSE TO DEMARCHE ON BELARUS REF: STATE 30007 Classified By: Ambassador Vincent Obsitnik for reasons ¶1. (C) DCM delivered reftel demarche to Miro Jenca, Foreign Minister Kubis's Chef du Cabinet, on March 28. Pol/Econ Chief had discussed the demarche with Acting Director of the Office for Balkans and the CIS, Eva Ponomarenkova on March ¶26. Jenca described the GOB's recentt behavior as very disappointing and said Belarus must not be allowed to divide the EU and US. Ponomorenkovaa cited the necessity of U.S.-EU unity going forward, but didn't explicitly endorse specific measures, e.g., delaying the opening of the commission office in Minsk. In addition to supporting the EU statement criticizing Belarus, FM Kubis likely would issue his own statement on the recent crackdowns, and would note that he is both the Slovak FM and the current Chair of the Council of Europe's Council of Ministers. Ponomarenkova asked if Kozulin's release would make possible a return to the status quo ante, i.e., would the U.S. be willing to suspend the clarification of financial sanctions regarding Belnef subsidiaries. ¶2. (C) In a March 26 meeting, Acting Director for the MFA Balkans and CIS office told Pol/Econ Chief that it was imperative that the GOB took positive steps, e.g., the release of Kozulin, to improve the current climate in Belarus and relations with the international community. Although she agreed that Belarusian authorities would exploit any perceived cracks in U.S.-EU unity, she was non-committal in response to points regarding the opening of the commission office in Minsk and the ramifications of current GOB behavior on WTO negotiations. Evoking Slovakia's authoritarian past, she noted that sometimes it was "hard for such actors to change," and asked rhetorically what could be done to help shift Belarusian behavior. She asked specifically if the U.S. would be willing to return to the status quo ante if the GOB released Kozulin. Pol/Econ Chief responded that the unconditional release of Kozulin and all political prisoners were essential for improved relations with the West, but that the Belarusians had needlessly muddied the waters with their stance toward the U.S. Embassy. Ponomarenkova stressed that the EU would be inclined to offer positive signals were the GOB to release Kozulin. ¶3. (C) The Slovaks provided us an update of the various initiatives Slovakia has been pursuing with Belarus as part of its COE Chairmanship. They confirmed that a conference that was to have gathered GOB officials and members of the opposition and NGO community in Bratislava next month had been scrapped due to GOB resistance. The Belarusians had suggested that the conference be held in Minsk, with only the Slovaks and the COE Secretariat present; the GOS rejected this proposal and pulled the plug on the whole idea. There was a very slim chance, Ponomarenkova noted, that the Slovaks would attempt to host a conference in Bratislava that included only NGOs and opposition members, but she was skeptical of the value of such a meeting. The other two initiatives the GOS has pursued are the opening of a COE "info point" in Minsk and a seminar in Minsk with the Venice Commission on the constitutional court. The latter is on hold due to disputes between the GOB and COE on attendance. Jenca said the event was not canceled yet, but implied that it likely would be. Discussions on the opening of the "info point," including timing, are ongoing between the GOB and the COE. However, Jenca complained that the GOB has raised "excessive (monetary) demands" for such an opening. Meanwhile, the Pontis Foundation, according to Jenca, will hold its NGO "implementers'" conference April 10-11. FM Kubis was prepared to receive the participants, but will be traveling those days. Deputy FM Strofova will receive them. Kubis wrote a letter of support for the NGOs' work.o ¶4. (C) Comment: While the GOS is clearly troubled by the recent turn of events and the GOB stance toward the U.S., they still seek an approach that is more "carrot" than "stick." And despite the GOS's clear unhappiness with GOB actions, the Slovaks consistently have been among those arguing for greater EU engagement and patience with the regime; we will see if the Slovaks' most recent experiences with the Lukashenka regime will have any impact on this approach. End Comment. OBSITNIK