S/P DIRECTOR GORDON HOLDS FIRST STRATEGIC TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BRASILIA 000756

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR S/P AND WHA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2018
TAGS: PREL BR
SUBJECT: S/P DIRECTOR GORDON HOLDS FIRST STRATEGIC TALKS
WITH BRAZIL

REF: A. BRASILIA 645

B. YEKATERINBURG 035 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Ambassador Clifford M. Sobel, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. S/P Director Dr. David Gordon held four
hours of talks April 9 in Brasilia with Ministry of External
Relations (MRE, or Itamaraty) Under Secretary for Political
Affairs Ambassador Everton Vieira Vargas. The wide-ranging
talks focused generally on the trends that are likely to
change profoundly the international system over the next two
decades. Specific topics covered included the rise of
Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) as global
players; mutual concerns over violent extremism, terrorism,
and nuclear proliferation, particularly with regard to Iran;
overlapping concerns with regard to energy security,
environmental protection, and economic growth; and United
Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform. Both sides noted the
frankness and strategic focus of the talks, and agreed that
it would be helpful to continue the conversation at regular
intervals, perhaps semi-annually. Gordon conveyed U.S.
willingness to host the next round of talks, and they
tentatively agreed that the week after the opening of the UN
General Assembly (e.g., early October 2008) might offer a
good opportunity for this. Septel will provide a readout of
Dr. Gordon's other meetings in Brazil. End summary.


2. (SBU) Dr. Gordon, joined by Ambassador Sobel, WHA DAS
Chris McMullen, S/P Member William McIlhenny, and PolCouns
(notetaker) held a two hour session with Amb. Vargas on April
9, followed by a working lunch. Amb. Vargas was joined by
Director of Diplomatic Planning Amb. Maria da Rocha,
President of the National Foundation Alexandre Gusmao Amb.
Jose Jeronimo Moscardo, Director-General of the Institute for
Foreign Relations Research Amb. Carlos Henrique Cardim, Amb.
Vargas's Chief of Staff Antonio Salgado, and United States
and Canada Director Joao Tabajara.

--------------
Rise of the BRICs
--------------


3. (C) In his opening remarks, Dr. Gordon stressed that his
objective was to hold an open discussion with Brazilian
counterparts on strategic issues, looking to identify areas
of convergence over the longer term and ways in which we
might build our bilateral partnership through joint action in
the region and the world. Noting the excellent relationship
between our presidents and foreign ministers, Dr. Gordon
stressed that these were historic talks that reflect Brazil's
place as a rising power. Amb. Vargas agreed, affirming our
large, multicultural democracies have a commonality of values
that we should make "more and more operative." He noted
that, as a developing, non-English speaking country with a
limited ability to disseminate its views in today's
fast-changing world, these types of discussions are
particularly important for Brazil.


4. (C) Amb. Vargas asserted that deepening asymmetries within
and among countries will have a problematic effect on global
governance. He commented on the rise of developing countries
and their "new Keynesianism" that seeks to use the power of
the state to promote social change, as Brazil is doing with
its "Bolsa Familia" (Family Stipend) program. Brazil is
working to diversify its partners, for which the GOB has been
criticized. But Brazil is not seeking to do so at the
expense of "traditional relationships," he said, noting that
the United States remains Brazil's largest investor. Brazil
is "trying to give content to Goldman Sachs" by organizing
meetings among the "BRIC"s (Brazil, Russia, India, and
China--a ministerial meeting of the four was held at the end

BRASILIA 00000756 002 OF 005


of May, ref b). Dr. Gordon agreed that internal dynamics are
increasingly important in shaping policy, citing crime and
drug networks, the uneven benefits of globalization, and poor
governance that has driven some into violent extremism. Dr.
Gordon expressed support for diversification of the world's
economic engines, stressing that it is not a zero-sum game,
but rather a benefit that adds to the resilience of the
global economy.


5. (C) Dr. Gordon asked Amb. Vargas Brazil's views on the
rise of Asian economies, noting that, although China's
non-democratic political system presents a constraint, we
have had some success, for example through the six-party
talks on North Korea, in moving China to be a more
responsible global stakeholder. Amb. Vargas agreed that it
is important to manage the rise of China*particularly their
growing presence in Asia and Africa--and encourage their role
as a stabilizing force, in particular against terrorism. We
need to deal with China, he said, but show that there are
real changes necessary. Vargas saw China's "three strategic
relationships" as those with Japan, Russia, and India, all
three of which he saw as difficult for China, citing Japan's
interest in UNSC membership, Russia's severe aging and
development problems, and India's agreement with the United
States on nuclear issues. Vargas said that Brazil has
developed a strategic relationship with both India and China.
The latter includes a dialogue on human rights, and he
stressed that Brazil believes that "certain values need to be
respected," which is why the GOB had issued a statement on
the recent protests in Tibet.

--------------
Extremism, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation: Focus on the
Middle East, Pakistan, Iran
--------------


6. (C) Dr. Gordon raised the problems of violent extremism,
terrorism, and nuclear proliferation, noting our hope that we
can get Iran to adopt a more sensible approach on the last
issue. Amb. Vargas responded that Brazil sees terrorism as a
significant problem, and that our regional consultations are
good, but noted that our two countries do not identify the
same groups as terrorists. He agreed that extremism is a
concern, citing its role in fueling conflicts in the Middle
East. "Peace is only possible," he said, "if countries try
to disarm the extremist spirit." He suggested, as an
example, that it is important to engage Hamas in the effort
to achieve a Palestinian state to convince them that
extremism is not an option. Dr. Gordon stressed the need for
Israel and the Palestinian Authority to come to terms before
broadening the negotiation. Amb. Vargas said that Brazil
values enormously the invitation it received to participate
in the Annapolis meeting, and asked if Russia would be
hosting a follow-on conference. With the Secretary still in
Russia, Dr. Gordon said he did not know and would get back to
Amb. Vargas on that. Vargas stress that Brazil wants to
cooperate with the United States on the Middle East.


7. (C) Amb. Vargas said that Brazil follows developments in
Pakistan closely. They were pleased by the outcome of the
recent elections, but concerned that "the biggest challenge
in years" is still to come and that "a nuclear power with
feeble institutions" could present tremendous problems for
promoting stable governance in the region. Dr. Gordon agreed
that we are less likely to achieve success in promoting
democracy if there is not success in Pakistan.


8. (C) With regard to Iran, Vargas said that Brazil "is very
much aware of U.S. concerns" and praised the Secretary's
statement that the United States has no permanent enemies.
He affirmed that the presence of nuclear weapons in the

BRASILIA 00000756 003 OF 005


Middle East is a serious threat that needs to be addressed,
but stressed that Brazil recognizes both the right of Iran to
develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes and the need for
IAEA safeguards. The actions against Iran should not be used
to preventing other developing countries from engaging in
nuclear programs. Vargas said that regime change in Iran
will not solve the problem, and that "dialogue and diplomacy
are essential to persuade Iran to maintain a peaceful nuclear
program." He has spoken with people close to the Iranian
regime who tell him that even conservatives in Iran hope that
a new U.S. Administration will allow for a better
relationship with the United States. Iran is a regional
power*it has a role to play in Iraq, for example*and Brazil
sees engagement as the way to ensure that Iran does not play
a destabilizing role in the region. Dr. Gordon was skeptical
about Iranian government willingness to sustain a dialogue
with the U.S., and noted that Iran today underestimates the
degree of consensus that exists in the United States with
regard to preventing extremist Shiite elements from gaining
access to nuclear weapons. He said the USG will continue to
work through the UNSC, and that as we increase economic
pressure on Iran, we continue to hold open the possibility of
negotiations.


9. (C) Amb. Vargas made four points with regard to
non-proliferation. First, Brazil would like to see a renewed
emphasis on disarmament, and is concerned that military
doctrines still reserve a role for nuclear weapons. Second,
Brazil is concerned about the possibility of non-state actors
possessing nuclear weapons. Third, Brazil is concerned about
what it sees as apathy toward the UN and Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT) regimes, which he said were in "crisis."
Finally, he said that, without an advance in disarmament, he
did not believe it would be possible to be consistent on
non-proliferation, which is why Brazil is a member of the New
Agenda Coalition. Amb. Sobel asked about the Brazilian
position on the Additional Protocol. Amb. Vargas said that
it is "on the table, not in a drawer," and that the GOB is
"working it hard," but he stressed it is very sensitive and
that the Ministry of Defense plays a crucial role.

-------------- --------------
Energy Security, Environment and Economic Growth
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Dr. Gordon emphasized the tightening links between
energy security, environmental stewardship, and sustainable
econmic growth, their growgin policy priority, and the
increasingly complicated challenge we face in managing these
intertwined issues wisely. We have to avoid suggesting that
the international community must choose between protecting
the environment and providing opportunity for growth to poor
countries. A new framework for reducing greenhouse gases
that includes all emitters and technological breakthroughs
toward a post-carbon world will be key elements of the
solution, and the United States sees partnership with Brazil
as part of a policy bridge between committed Europeans and
skeptical Asians. With regard to commitments, Amb. Vargas
said that countries should have flexibility and that he did
not see possibilities for a "unified position." He noted
that, unlike most countries, about 75 percent of Brazil's
GHG's come from deforestation and only 25 percent from
industry. Brazil cannot cut its competitive sectors when
there is still insufficient economic growth to provide funds
for redressing deforestation. Dr. Gordon suggested that a
robust global target, allowing countries to decide on actions
to implement it, and monitoring would be a possible approach,
but it was essential to have all of the major countries
involved. Amb. Vargas said that they have a clear message to
others: climate policy will not move forward without U.S.
engagement.

BRASILIA 00000756 004 OF 005




11. (C) Amb. Vargas agreed that technology was key,
suggesting a protocol on technology diffusion should be an
element in forthcoming negotiations, as a means of finding
"innovative modalities" for addressing the scientific,
financial, and commercial aspects of technology development.
He said that the DARPA model that had led to creation of the
Internet was an approach not often mentioned, but one which
had worked in developing Brazilian ethanol and might well
help spur private sector investment in new technologies. Dr.
Gordon noted that the USG has begun to explore how best to
address this issue of technology related to climate change,
stressing that it cannot be viewed just as environmental, but
as the intersection between environment, growth, and energy.

--------------
UN Security Council Reform
--------------


12. (C) Amb. Vargas raised Brazil's interest in a UNSC
permanent seat, citing the importance of the United Nations,
which he called a "U.S. creation" that should not be
marginalized. He said Brazil's desire to cooperate on the
Middle East and on Haiti were evidence of the positive role
Brazil could play on the UNSC. He said Brazil is not opposed
to a transitional approach, but cannot support a formula that
would in essence require re-election of new permanent
members, which would lead to uncertainty. He suggested that
new permanent members could be admitted on a temporary basis,
with a reassessment after ten or fifteen years. Amb. Vargas
stressed that the G-4 cannot move UNSC reform forward alone,
and that it is unlikely to move until the United States takes
the lead. By 2030, he said, the world's biggest economies
will no longer be in Europe, making reform harder and
increasing the likelihood that the UNSC would become
irrelevant. Vargas said that such a situation would present
a real danger to the UN Charter and international law.


13. (C) Dr. Gordon agreed that reform of the multilateral
institutions is an enormous challenge. He stressed U.S.
commitment to the UN system and to the credibility of the
UNSC. Amb. Vargas suggested that one of the Bush
Administration's legacies could be a greater recognition of
the role that Brazil and India could play in the UNSC. He
said that Brazil understands that a ten-member expansion is
not possible, and that Brazil is not seeking to join a
"League of Nations council." But Brazil hopes for a serious
demonstration of U.S. commitment to reform. Dr. Gordon
reminded Amb. Vargas that the United States sees UNSC reform
as part of a larger effort to achieve a more efficient and
accountable UN system. Amb. Vargas assured him that this was
not a problem for Brazil, and that they were prepared to work
on it.

--------------
Policy Planning Talks as an Element of Broader USG Agenda
--------------


14. (C) Finally, Dr. Gordon and Amb. Vargas discussed policy
planning. Amb. Vargas noted that Brazil is making a bigger
effort to do long-range planning, citing the annual National
Conference on International Politics and Foreign Policy and
efforts to promote U.S. studies in Brazil. He said Brazil
would appreciate help to improve both its policy planning and
American studies programs, which Dr. Gordon said that S/P
would be happy to do. The two agreed that the talks had been
a useful start and should be continued on a semi-annual
basis. They agreed to look at the week after the opening of
UNGA in Washington as a possible date for the next round of
talks.


BRASILIA 00000756 005 OF 005




15. (C) Comment: This first round of strategic planning
talks was among a small group of recent USG initiatives to be
warmly received by Itamaraty and other senior policymakers.
It was clear that Itamaraty saw this as a sign that the
United States takes Brazil's current and future role on the
global stage seriously, and it will pay dividends in our
broader bilateral and global agenda with the GOB. The April
9 talks marked the start of what we hope will be an ongoing
conversation with Brazil on some of the major issues and
trends that are reshaping the international environment. Our
interest in global partnership with Brazil and belief in the
potential of that partnership inform our engagement with a
widening circle of decision-makers in Brazil and across a
growing range of issues (ref a). Dr. Gordon's outreach to a
broader set of governmental and non-governmental partners
(septel) added a new element to our engagement that will
encourage Brazilians to think beyond the traditional confines
of their domestic and South American regional interests. As
this process moves forward, our goal is to expand perceptions
in Brazil of converging core national interests. A regular
policy planning dialogue, particularly one that reaches out
directly to key political, economic, and national security
constituencies in Brazil, can be an important tool for doing
so.


16. (U) This cable was cleared by S/P.

SOBEL