Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08BRASILIA6 | 2008-01-03 11:14:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia |
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000006 |
1. (C) Summary: Former President and sitting Senator Jose Sarney (PMDB, Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, governing coalition; of Amapa) told WHA A/S Thomas Shannon on December 14 that President Lula is doing a good job and has maintained the social calm necessary for growth and development. Sarney recommended that U.S. avoid being drawn into provocative situations in the region that would turn out to be "traps." He reiterated his view that Hugo Chavez is bent on provoking a war with Guyana over the disputed Essequibo territory (refs A and B). Sarney asked Shannon for any information we could provide about Venezuelan arms acquisitions. Sarney said Brazil must help Bolivia, but called the new Bolivian constitution "illegitimate." He said President Lula's December 13 trip to Venezuela was mainly of commercial significance, and implied Lula's defeat in Congress over the renewal of the tax on financial transactions (CPMF) will not be the fiscal disaster some fear. End summary. Lula is Doing Well - - - - - - - - - - 2. (C) Former president and sitting Senator Jose Sarney told visiting A/S Shannon, accompanied by EEB A/S Daniel Sullivan, Ambassador, and poloff (notetaker), that President Lula is doing a good job, and his policies are providing Brazil the social calm that foster good growth and development. He added that "Lula has a lot of style in his personal diplomacy." Speaking just 14 hours after President Lula suffered a historic defeat at the hands of opposition senators who rejected his proposal to renew the tax on financial transactions, Sarney was sanguine and said the government would find the money (i.e., some 40 billion reais, about USD 22 billion, in lost annual revenues) one way or another. He did not express any concern about political damage to the Lula presidency or financial harm to the national budget over the prospect of losing the funds next year. Bolivia's New Constitution is Illegitimate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3. (C) Sarney reviewed some of the historical "episodes" and reasons for which he believes Brazil must help Bolivia (ref b), including territorial losses to Chile, Peru, Paraguay, and Brazil, persistent poverty, and deep ethnic divisions. Sarney described Bolivia as a "barely viable state." Asked his views of the new Bolivian constitution, he replied that one cannot speak of a constitution as such, since the new constitution is "illegitimate, and just another episode in Bolivian history." Venezuela - - - - - 4. (C) Sarney said President Lula's December 13 trip to Venezuela was chiefly of commercial significance, since Lula is trying to increase trade with Venezuela to strengthen the overall relationship. Otherwise, there was no greater political significance to the trip. He said Lula is simply trying to be practical, and like capitalists, Lula "goes where there is money." He added that, with regard to possible Venezuelan accession to Mercosul, the Democracy Clause was "an important vaccine." Sarney remains convinced that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is trying to provoke a war with Guyana over the disputed Essequibo region (ref b), which would be "bad for Brazil because Brazil had accepted the treaty settling the matter, and it reopens the issue." He said Brazil had built a road from Manaus to the Guyanese border that he hopes might continue to Georgetown, but if Chavez acts aggressively toward Guyana it "will create a problem for all of us." He said Itamaraty, the Brazilian Ministry of External Relations, is "calm, but we should always be concerned about the matter." Obviously concerned BRASILIA 00000006 002 OF 002 about Venezuela's capacity to destabilize the region, Sarney asked A/S Shannon for any information the USG could provide on Venezuelan arms acquisitions. Sarney also recommended that the U.S. would do well to avoid being provoked into policies and actions that could be counterproductive and could benefit antagonists, saying "the U.S. must be careful to avoid falling into traps." No Brazilian Role with the FARC - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5. (C) Asked about a possible role for Brazil in negotiations with the FARC, Sarney replied that Brazil does not have enough experience in this area to do much more than offer good will, and could not "improvise from one day to the next." CHICOLA |