Brazil: Incumbents, PMDB Win in Second Round Mayoral

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001414 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV BR SUBJECT: Brazil: Incumbents, PMDB Win in Second Round Mayoral Races REFS: A. BRASILIA 1320, B. BRASILIA 1330, C. SAO PAULO 536, D. BRASILIA 1290 ¶1. (U) Summary. In second round voting for mayors in thirty Brazilian cities, candidates from the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) and incumbents did well, while President Lula's Workers' Party (PT) lost in Sao Paulo, Salvador, and Porto Alegre, but did well in the industrial cities surrounding Sao Paulo. (See septel reporting from Sao Paulo.) The poor showing for Lula's candidates in some large cities calls into question his ability to "transfer" votes, in spite of his high personal popularity, which could be a disadvantage for the PT's presidential candidate in 2010. Yesterday's results reconfirm first round results on October 5 that signaled the 2010 presidential contest will be between Jose Serra, the Social Democrat (PSDB) governor of Sao Paulo state, and presidential chief of staff Dilma Rousseff (PT) who appears to be Lula's choice. End summary. ¶2. (U) The two main parties in President Lula's coalition, the PMDB and Lula's own PT, fared best, each winning several mayorships in some of the 30 cities where a second round election was held. The PMDB won eight large municipalities, including Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, and Salvador. The poor showing for Lula's candidates in some large cities calls into question his ability to "transfer" votes, in spite of his high popularity, which could be a disadvantage for the PT's presidential candidate in 2010. Of the 79 largest municipalities in the country, the PT now governs 21, the PMDB 17 and the PSDB 13. As in the first round (reftel),incumbents fared well, and voters re-elected ten of the eleven incumbents standing for re-election in round two. In the capitals of the three largest states, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro, the candidate allied with the state governor won. Governor's Candidate Wins in Rio de Janeiro ¶3. (U) In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes (PMDB) edged out Fernando Gabeira (Green Party - PV) by the smallest margin in the city's history -- 50.83% to 49.17%, only 55,225 votes. Analysts say low voter turnout helped Paes win, with nearly one million residents abstaining. Though the result is seen as a victory for President Lula and Governor Sergio Cabral, who both supported Paes, it highlights the politico-economic divide between the different areas of the city. Gabeira won the city's affluent southern zone by a decisive margin, as well as Rio's north and center, while Paes won the highly populated, impoverished western zone. Paes's mandate, though slim, gives him the opportunity to deliver on his campaign promise to bring federal and state resources to Rio de Janeiro. Federal military troops have been stationed in Rio de Janeiro for the past few weeks to ensure free and fair elections; so far, there are no reports of rampant voter intimidation at the polls, as had been feared. ¶4. (U) Combating crime and violence is a key issue for many of Brazil's large cities, perhaps most crucially so for Rio de Janeiro. Starting with last year's Pan Am Games, Rio de Janeiro is billed as the "face of Brazil" for large-scale sports competitions and other major events. Rio will host the World Cup Finals in 2014 and hopes to host the 2016 Olympics. Newly elected Mayor Eduardo Paes, who until now has been serving as the state's Secretary for Sports and Tourism, has a keen appreciation the negative links between declining public security and tourism revenue. Rather than inserting himself into the operational strategy of law enforcement, a state function rather than a municipal one, Paes likely sees himself more active in public relations on behalf of the city. Personable and fluent in English, Paes will seek to improve the city's public security image (if only superficially) with the media and international event organizers. While other mayoral candidates advocated broadening the police authority of the city's Municipal Guard, a small unarmed patrol force, Paes has so far only supported better training and more equipment. Belo Horizonte: Candidate of Governor and Presidential Hopeful Wins ¶5. (U) In Belo Horizonte, Marcio Lacerda (Brazilian Socialist Party - PSB) turned around his disappointing first round performance to win the second round with 59.12%. Lacerda's victory could bolster 2010 election prospects for his backers, Minas Gerais Governor Aecio Neves and outgoing Belo Horizonte Mayor Fernando Pimentel (PT). Neves may hope to win the PSDB presidential nomination in 2010; Pimentel is considering a run for governor. BRASILIA 00001414 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) As previously reported (ref D),Neves saw Lacerda's victory in the Belo Horizonte mayoral race as very important to bolstering his standing within his party for the PSDB's presidential nomination in 2010. While his endorsement of Lacerda was successful, Neves's standing in relation to PSDB rival Jose Serra for the nomination did not necessarily improve because Kassab's victory was by a larger margin over a more significant opponent in Brazil's largest city. Though some analysts suggest that Neves could join a Serra ticket as the vice presidential candidate, it still appears that Neves is eyeing the top spot. While his preference is clearly to be the PSDB's candidate in 2010, some analysts think he could switch parties to launch himself as the PMDB's presidential candidate. In the absence of dynamic presidential contenders from either the PT or PMDB parties, Neves -- a Lula ally -- could very well capitalize to forge a PMDB-PT alliance in 2010. SOBEL