COUNTRY TEAM ASSESSMENT ON SUBMARINE COMBAT

UNCLAS BOGOTA 000716 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MARR PGOV PTER CO SUBJECT: COUNTRY TEAM ASSESSMENT ON SUBMARINE COMBAT SYSTEMS FOR COLOMBIA REASON THE PURCHASER DESIRES THE ARTICLE OR SERVICES: ¶1. The Colombian Navy (COLNAV) seeks to purchase two U.S. submarine combat systems -- equivalent to either the AN/BYG-1 or SUBICS 9000. This purchase intends to modernize combat systems and capabilities on the Navy's two Type 209 submarines and keep them operational for an estimated 20 additional years. HOW THE ARTICLE OR SERVICES WOULD AFFECT THE RECIPIENTS FORCE STRUCTURE: ¶2. The capabilities that a submarine combat system provides to the COLNAV structure include the modernization of their submarine fleet, a part of an overall Colombian modernization plan intended to meet future regional threats and interoperability with the U.S. Navy. HOW THE ARTICLE OR SERVICES WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH U.S. AND THE RECIPIENT'S DEFENSE SECURITY GOAL: ¶3. Based on new information from the Navy and Drug Enforcement Administration regarding the dramatically increasing threat of Self-Propelled Semi Submersible (SPSS) craft in the illegal drug trade, and the key role Colombian submarines play against the SPSS and other threats in counter-narcotics operations both in territorial waters and the open ocean, we have reassessed our position and recommend the transfer. The initial country team assessment (MSG DTG 052040ZJULl07),withheld recommendation for approval due to insufficient information from the GOC on the growing threat posed by SPSSs, and the role submarines play in counter-narcotics operations. The systems will also enhance the Navy's ability to assist in maintaining the maritime security of the Caribbean Basin and the Pacific. The GOC maintains a concentrated effort, supported by the United States, to end a 40 year narcotics trafficking supported insurgency. The Country Team concluded that enhancing the GOC's submarine assets will improve the its ability to interdict outgoing narcotics and incoming contraband shipments that support the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) insurgency and other narco-terrorist groups. JUSTIFICATION FOR THE TYPE AND QUANTITY OF ARTICLES OR SERVICES REQUIRED: ¶4. The Navy requests two submarine combat systems equivalent either to the AN/BYG-1 or SUBICS 9000, one for each diesel type 200 submarine. The COLNAV currently has two type 209 diesel submarines that perform counter narco-terrorism 
operations and intelligence gathering. However, the current systems date from the early 1970's and are obsolete. Although the submarines can detect narcotics carrying go-fast and other vessels, the sonar cannot auto-track, thus greatly limiting their ability to interdict. With the installation of the new system, the sonar will auto-track potential enemy vessels and the narcotics-carrying SPSSs. ANTICIPATING REACTIONS OF NEIGHBORING NATIONS: ¶5. Given the low-profile nature of the request ("invisible" systems upgrades to already deployed submarines),we expect little reaction from Colombia's neighbors. Still, we have seen a recent increase in tensions between Colombia and Venezuela over Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez calls to remove the FARC from international terrorism lists, and increasingly hostile rhetoric from Chavez. Chavez could use the systems upgrades as new "evidence" for his long-standing and oft-repeated accusations that the USG and GOC are plotting against him. We do not consider that sufficient reason to hold on the sale, and Chavez will almost certainly continue to make those accusations with or without the sale. ASSESSMENT OF NATION'S ABILITY TO ACCOUNT FOR, SAFEGUARD, OPERATE, MAINTAIN, AND SUPPORT THE ARTICLES: ¶6. The Navy has demonstrated proper security safeguard procedures, operations, maintenance, and support of control technologies, and the Country Team assesses the Navy can effectively account for, safeguard, operate, maintain, and support the articles requested. E TRAINING IN-COUNTRY & U.S. PRESENCE THAT MIGHT BE REQUIRED AS A RESULT OF PROVIDING THE ARTICLES: ¶7. NONE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF ANY IN-COUNTRY U.S. PRESENCE THAT MIGHT BE REQUIRED AS A RESULT OF PROVIDING THE ARTICLES: ¶8. NONE SOURCE OF FINANCING AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION: ¶9. The COLNAV told us they will utilize funding allotted through recent war tax legislation. HUMAN RIGHTS CONSIDERATION RELEVANT TO THE PROPOSED ACQUISITION: ¶10. None anticipated. A PLAN FOR END-USE MONITORING FOR SENSITIVE AND ADVANCED WAR FIGHTING TECHNOLOGY AND THE SAO'S PLAN FOR COMPLIANCE VERIFICATION: ¶11. The Security Assistance Officer (SAO) will verify compliance by recurring observation and review of these systems installed aboard their type 209 submarines. The SAO will notify the Navy via official correspondence when the annual inspections will take place. The SAO will execute inspections via the handbook for the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) transfer of controlled technology and end use monitoring and the letter of offer and acceptance guidance. Historically, the COLNAV provided detailed end use monitoring reports to the SAO, and has received support via end use monitoring visits by the appropriate mission. RECOMMENDATIONS AS TO WHETHER THE USG SHOULD APPROVE TRANSFER OF THE ARTICLES AND JUSTIFICATION: ¶12. The Country Team recommends approval. The purchase would enhance the GOC drug and weapons interdiction capabilities and counter the emerging SPSS threat, thereby limiting the ability of both drug and terrorist organizations to generate income and re-supply. In this way the programs expect to contribute to the resolution of Colombia's internal conflict. The systems will also provide COLNAV submarines with more interoperability with U.S. Navy Forces. Brownfield