THIRD TERM REFERENDUM TAKES A SECOND SMALL STEP

id: 183559 date: 12/17/2008 21:08 refid: 08BOGOTA4468 origin: Embassy Bogota classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 08BOGOTA4372 header: VZCZCXYZ0005 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHBO #4468/01 3522108 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 172108Z DEC 08 FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6168 INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1444 RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ DEC 9837 RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 6839 RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 2800 RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 7541 RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 4737 RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004468 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR CO SUBJECT: THIRD TERM REFERENDUM TAKES A SECOND SMALL STEP FORWARD REF: BOGOTA 4372 Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) Summary: President Uribe called for a special congressional session only 30 minutes before the normal close of Congress on December 16, allowing his supporters to push through the second of four required votes on the presidential reelection referendum bill. The language in the bill would allow for reelection in 2014, not in 2010--but GOC supporters told us they will use the next two congressional votes to try to amend the bill to allow for an immediate run. The U and Conservative Parties succeeded in pushing through the vote only after direct intervention by Uribe--marking the first time the president has engaged to push for the third term measure. Still, the bill will face strong resistance from the opposition Liberal and Polo Democratico Parties, as well as from the "rebel" coalition party Cambio Radical, when Congress resumes in March, 2009. End Summary. Third Term Proposal Half Way Through Congress -------------- ¶2. (C) On December 16, the last day of the regular 2008 Congressional year, the House of Representatives approved in full session a bill allowing for a possible second reelection of President Alvaro Uribe. The December 16 session was extended due to a extraordinary decree signed by Uribe and read to the plenary attendees just 30 minutes before the ordinary session was set to end at midnight. The extraordinary House session resumed just after midnight on December 17 to debate and vote on the referendum proposal. �A;Cambio Radical President German Vargas Lleras told us earlier on December 16 that he expected the bill to fail given the GOC's lack of lobbying effort on behalf of the referendum. The proposal approved in the House would allow reelection in 2014, not in 2010. U Party leaders favor a 2010 run and U Party members told us that in March they will try to change the proposal's language to allow immediate reelection in the two remaining votes in the Senate First Commission and later the full Senate. The Liberals and Cambio Radical only support a 2014 proposal. ¶3. (U) The vote and special session occurred only after intense lobbying by GOC ministers and Uribe's direct intervention--his first. The vote went forward as the National Election Commission (CNE) continued an investigation into the finances of the signature collection effort that brought the proposal to Congress. In an unprecedented show of support for the third term proposal, eight GOC ministers attended the December 15 and 16 debates, led by Interior and Justice Minister Fabio Valancia Cossio. Secretary General of the House Jesus Rodriguez told us that Congress received approval from the Registrar's Office to include the third term bill in the December 16 session while the investigation continued. Attempts to Postpone Fail, but Criticism Continues -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) The Liberals and Polo--as well as GOC coalition party Cambio Radical--tried to delay the debate on the referendum until March 2009 and questioned the legality of the extraordinary session and vote. Liberal Party Spokesman Carlos Piedrahita said the session was "irregular and possibly illegal." Polo Representatives German Navas and Wilson Borja claimed the vote was illegal, since the CNE had not yet concluded their investigation on financing of the proposal. An opposition/Cambio Radical attempt to postpone the vote until March was soundly defeated. Cambio Radical Representative and House President German Varon criticized Uribe for intervening only at the last second. Cambio Radical representatives reportedly said the Party may consider breaking with Uribe's coalition. Uribe Finally Shows His Cards -------------- ¶5. (U) The Uribe and GOC intervention to push for the special session represented the president's first formal display of support for the new reelection effort. It began with Valencia, who had previously been under presidential orders to remain on the sidelines of the third term effort, pushing for a vote on December 10, and culminated with the December 16-17 lobbying effort in Congress by eight ministers and the presidential decree for a special session of Congress to allow the vote. Still, Palace spokesmen and their supporters claimed they only wanted to "facilitate the initiative of millions of Colombians who signed a petition in favor of a referendum on reelection." NICHOLS =======================CABLE ENDS============================