PEACE PROSPECTS WITH FARC REMAIN BLEAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004338

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO
SUBJECT: PEACE PROSPECTS WITH FARC REMAIN BLEAK

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer
Reasons 1.4 (b and d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) GOC Peace Commissioner Restrepo told us the FARC has
not responded to GOC outreach efforts. He thinks the FARC
may make a gesture to influence Colombia's 2010 presidential
elections, as well as overtures to Venezuela and other Latin
countries, but only if it first scores a military success.
Catholic priest Dario Echeverri told us Restrepo's relations
with President Uribe are strained, and that Restrepo has
reportedly submitted his resignation. Restrepo and Echeverri
are skeptical that the recent exchange of letters between a
group of Colombian "intellectuals"--led by Senator Piedad
Cordoba--and the FARC will lead anywhere. Restrepo said
Cordoba is one of the FARC's cards in Colombian politics, and
that the exchange is primarily designed to burnish her public
image. End Summary.

PEACE PROSPECTS BLEAK
--------------

2. (C) GOC Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo told us on
December 2 that the GOC messenger to the FARC (Henry Acosta)
has not succeeded in meeting with FARC Secretariat members
Alfonso Cano or Pablo Catatumbo. Cano and Catatumbo cite
security concerns for their failure to meet. Restrepo
believes Cano remains focused on trying to modernize the
FARC's internal structures and increase its military
capacity.


3. (C) In the immediate term, Restrepo expects the FARC to
continue to try to launch some type of high-profile military
attack to set the stage for a later effort to influence
Colombia's 2010 presidential elections. He speculated that
the FARC may also make a "gesture" to Venezuela and other
Latin countries, but only if it follows a military success.
Restrepo complained that Venezuela's continued support to the
FARC and ELN reinforces their intransigence, especially since
the terrorist leaders living in Venezuela lose their feel for
the realities of the Colombian conflict.


4. (C) In a separate December 1 meeting, Father Dario
Echeverri, Secretary of the National Conciliation Commission,
agreed that prospects for progress on peace with the FARC
remain bleak. Echeverri believes the FARC will never enter
into serious talks with Uribe on either a humanitarian accord
or a broader peace process, because the group cannot forgive
Uribe for the damage he has inflicted on them.

RESTREPO SUBMITS RESIGNATION
--------------

5. (C) Echeverri said Restrepo's relations with President
Uribe have deteriorated, and that Restrepo has submitted his
resignation letter. Echeverri speculated that Uribe will
likely reject Restrepo's resignation offer, though, because
accepting it would require him to appoint a new commissioner
with a mandate to make progress (which Uribe does not want
given likely FARC demands) or to leave the post vacant.
Echeverri said the latter would send a bad signal to the new
U.S. administration and the international community, since it
would make it appear the GOC is not interested in peace.

LETTER EXCHANGES GOING NOWHERE
--------------

6. (C) Echeverri does not believe that the exchange of
letters between the "intellectuals" led by Piedad Cordoba and
the FARC will lead anywhere. The "intellectuals" sent an
initial letter to the FARC on September 11 calling for
dialogue (which the FARC responded to on October 16),as well
as a second letter on November 28 asking that the FARC
refrain from the "inhuman" practice of kidnapping. Echeverri
said that with the letters, the FARC appears to be following
the steps of the ELN. Whereas in the past the FARC insisted
on a dialogue with the GOC and ignored civil society, the
group now appears to have reversed itself and prefers to talk
with civil society and exclude the GOC. Echeverri said this
approach has led nowhere for the ELN and is unlikely to lead
anywhere for the FARC either.


7. (C) Restrepo observed that the FARC's "cards" in
Colombia's internal politics are ex-Senator (and former
hostage) Luis Eladio Perez and Senator Piedad Cordoba. He
said Cordoba wants the FARC's support for her 2010
presidential campaign, and believes the FARC will release
some hostages to her to enhance her stature. Restrepo doubts
the FARC would do this, especially in the absence of any
military success, but speculated that the FARC is trying to
burnish Cordoba's public image through the letter exchange.

BETANCOURT RETURNS
--------------

8. (C) Restrepo said that Ingrid Betancourt's recent
seven-country tour of Latin America, coordinated jointly by
the GOC and the Government of France, was designed to build
her international image as she tries to set up her own
international foundation. He stressed that it was important
that her first meeting was with President Uribe in Bogota,
and noted that the FARC is not happy with Betancourt's public
criticism.
NICHOLS