MAPP/OAS COMMENDS PEACE PROCESS, HIGHLIGHTS

UNCLAS BOGOTA 004310 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM PGOV KJUS CO SUBJECT: MAPP/OAS COMMENDS PEACE PROCESS, HIGHLIGHTS ILLEGAL GROUP THREAT Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The MAPP/OAS (OAS Mission in Support of the Peace Process) twelfth draft report commends GOC progress made under the peace process, including increased victim participation, expanded services for ex-combatants, and advances in investigations of paramilitary crimes. The report recommends GOC actions to consolidate these successes, including expanding services to the demobilized and to victims at the municipal level. MAPP/OAS stresses the wide-ranging threat posed by emerging criminal groups which undermine citizen security, limit victims participation in the Justice and Peace Law (JPL) process, and forcibly recruit or kill demobilized paramilitaries. MAPP/OAS applauds the GOC's strategy to negotiate with the National Liberation Army's regional fronts rather than national commanders. End Summary Twelfth MAPP/OAS Report: Commends Progress, Presents Recommendations -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The MAPP/OAS twelfth draft report (please protect until public release) evaluates the implementation of the JPL, and the achievement of the three pillars of the paramilitary peace process -- security, reintegration of the demobilized, and protection of victims' rights. MAPP/OAS favorably reviews the results to date -- 160,000 victims participating in the process; 2709 confessions; increasing acceptance of the process by initial critics; special attention to new criminal groups' youth recruitment; and the demobilization of a National Liberation Army (ELN) splinter group. To consolidate these successes, MAPP/OAS recommends that the GOC expand services for both ex-combatants and victims. The report also urges the GOC to increase action against new illegal armed groups, warning that these groups threaten the success of the paramilitary peace process. Illegal Armed Groups: A Multidimensional Threat to the Peace Process -------------- - ¶3. (SBU) MAPP/OAS stresses that emerging criminal groups threaten communities and undermine the peace process. The report identifies 153 municipalities with significant emerging group criminal activity. Violence fell in most of the 153 municipalities after demobilization, but has recently increased as new groups compete for drug routes. A key area is the corridor starting in Uraba near the Panamanian border and extending eastward through southern Cordoba, southern Bolivar, Santander, southern Cesar, and ending in Norte de Santander. Over half of Cordoba's municipalities have seen their murder rates double compared with last year. Fighting for narco-routes between Daniel Rendon Herrera (alias Don Mario) and the Medellin-based Envigado Office also placed Antioquia ahead of the national average for homicides. ¶4. (SBU) MAPP/OAS highlights successful GOC efforts to confront emerging criminal group activity in Montes de Maria and elsewhere, including the capture of numerous mid-level commanders and seizures of weapons and precursor chemicals. Still, MAPP/OAS points to GOC data for 2006 through September 2008 that shows the number of new criminal groups falling by 52%, but their territorial presence declining only by 15%. MAPP/OAS proposes that the GOC shift its strategy from targeting specific groups to reducing aggregate territorial influence. Reintegration: Success Hinges on Employment, Curtailing Illegal Groups -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) MAPP/OAS recognizes the "enormous efforts" conducted by GOC institutions to promote reintegration, and praises the High Commission for Reintegration's (HCR) expansion of outreach services. MAPP/OAS considers the inclusion of reintegration services in municipal plans to be one of its greatest achievements in the past quarter. Still, the report calls for increased HCR efforts to ensure effective reinsertion of the demobilized. HCR provides a high percentage of educational and health services, but employment assistance remains weak. MAPP/OAS contends the lack of jobs for demobilized paramilitaries jeopardizes successful reintegration. ¶6. (SBU) MAPP/OAS judges illegal armed groups to be the greatest risk to successful reintegration -- ex-combatants have been subjected to forced recruitment in Antioquia (Uraba),Bolivar, Santander, Antioquia, Magdalena, Cordoba, and Choco. MAPP/OAS reports that approximately 50% of the demobilized incarcerated for recidivism were active in HCR services when they were arrested. The report notes that 7,000 demobilized -- out of 31,000 demobilized -- do not participate in the reinsertion program. In northern Antioquia (Bajo Cauca),Santander, and Norte de Santander, some demobilized groups are both active in the program and engaged in criminal activity. ¶7. (SBU) Violence targeting the demobilized threatens the peace process -- 1658 of the demobilized have died, the majority murdered. Threats against reinsertion are greatest in southern Cordoba, Bajo Cauca, southern Bolivar and Santander. In August in Barrancabermeja (Santander),an emerging criminal group attacked a group of ex-combatants participating in an HCR activity. Ex-combatants were displaced from Santander and southern Bolivar after they refused to join armed groups. Victims Participation: Growing Steadily as Assistance Improves -------------- ¶8. (SBU) MAPP/OAS links advances in the JPL process to the steady growth in victim participation. Fully 160,000 victims are now active in the process. MAPP/OAS points out that increasing victim engagement in the JPL enhances the legitimacy of the peace process in the eyes of initial critics. Still, a large number of victims are not participating, the majority of whom live in zones under the influence of criminal groups. ¶9. (SBU) MAPP/OAS underscores the importance of local engagement in victims' assistance programs, and applauds the inclusion of victims' services in many departmental and municipal plans. The report indicates local action may lead to further victims' participation in the JPL. The report highlights the successes of local authorities in Medellin and Bucaramanga, who have encouraged participation through expanded services and enhanced security measures. ¶10. (SBU) MAPP/OAS also congratulates the Human Rights Ombudsman (Defensoria del Pueblo) for providing greater legal services to victims, but notes that the current volume -- with each legal advocate covering an average caseload of 300 victims -- requires more staff. Additional progress includes significant advances in investigations: 2709 confessions; more than 1328 graves exhumed; 1698 cadavers discovered; 538 preliminary identifications; and 223 remains returned to their families. Expanding the Scope: Services at the Local Level -------------- ¶11. (SBU) MAPP/OAS applauds the expansion of HCR and the National Commission for Reparation and Reconciliation, but calls for further outreach to ensure successful reintegration and increased victims' participation. In particular, MAPP/OAS maintains many victims in violent zones receive little GOC information on their rights. ELN Demobilizations: GOC Implements a New Strategy -------------- ¶12. (SBU) During the period of the report, MAPP/OAS verified the disarmament of an ELN faction that had operated in the municipality of Carmen de Atrato (Choco). The newly demobilized will benefit from the JPL process. MAPP/OAS commends the GOC's new strategy to initiate dialogue directly with ELN regional structures, rather than continuing the fruitless on-again off-again negotiations with national commanders. BROWNFIELD