CONSERVATIVES MAINTAIN DISCIPLINE, WHILE U PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004145

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR CO
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES MAINTAIN DISCIPLINE, WHILE U PARTY
HAS DISAPPOINTING SHOWING

REF: BOGOTA 4067

SUMMARY
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1. (C) On October 26, the Conservative Party and the U Party
held their internal elections to set their respective agendas
leading up to the 2010 presidential elections. The
Conservatives had a strong showing, with over 1.5 million
votes cast for local delegates and National Committee
members. The high turnout boosted the Conservatives'
position within the Uribe coalition, encouraging their hope
of playing a key role in determining the coalition's
candidate in the 2010 presidential elections. In contrast,
the weak participation in the U Party elections highlighted
its lack of political base beyond its support for Uribe and a
second reelection. End Summary.

Conservative's Big Turnout
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2. (U) On October 26, three of Colombia's major political
parties--the Polo Democratico Party, the U Party and
Conservative Party--held their internal elections to select
delegates to their respective party congresses (see reftel on
Polo results). The Conservative Party had an impressive
showing, with more than 1.5 million voters turning out to
choose departmental leaders and an eleven-member National
Party Committee. The high voter participation--a million
more voters participated in the Conservatives' elections than
in the opposition Polo's internal vote--showed the Party
remains the most organized and unified force within the GOC's
governing coalition, giving it leverage heading into the 2010
presidential and congressional elections.


3. (C) Close Uribe ally Senator Efrain Cepeda came in first
followed by Senators Jose Salazar, Roberto Gerlein and Alirio
Villamizar. Former Foreign Minister and FARC hostage
Fernando Araujo won one of the eleven National Committee
seats, but finished a disappointing fifth place. Salazar
told us the eleven members of the Committee will likely
select the Party's leadership (president and vice-president)
at a November 29 meeting. Cepeda, the current Party
president, will likely retain his seat given the successful
internal elections, but a rotational presidency, with Salazar
taking over in 2010, remains a possibility. Still, a
well-known local columnist criticized the results, claiming
the reelection of Gerlein and other party leaders "renowned
for corruption and old-style dominance" bodes poorly for
Colombia's democracy.

Future Prospects
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4. (C) Cepeda said that with its strong showing, the
Conservatives are focused on whether to pursue its own
presidential candidate in 2010 or to look to continue in a
coalition with the U Party and Cambio Radical. He stressed
that either scenario would depend on whether Uribe decides to
seek a thrid term. Cepeda told us that if Uribe goes for
another term, the Conservatives will back him--but seek more
national power in the GOC as the price of its support. Other
coalition members complain that the Conservatives have
received more than their share of cabinet and official
positions in the current government.


5. (U) Representative Santiago Castro told us the Party is
"looking to change the face of conservatism." The public
perception of the Conservatives is that the Party remains
"antiquated, old, and out of touch with reality." He said
the strong turnout in the internal elections shows the
contrary. Cepeda claimed the results prove the Conservatives
have the most popular support within the Uribe coalition
government, which would allow the party to play a decisive
role in shaping the coalition's 2010 presidential and
congressional candidates. Despite Cepeda's optimism, a
well-known columnist slammed the Conservative leadership as
more of the same corrupt, patronage-driven, old-style
politicians that have plagued Colombia in the past.


6. (C) Cepeda said the if Uribe opts not to run, the
Conservatives' status as the strongest coalition party should

make their candidate the presumptive coalition presidential
contender in 2010. Cepeda and Salazar said the leading
Conservative candidates would be Araujo, Ambassador to Spain
and two-time candidate Noemi Sanin (who left the Party in
1998),former-Minister of Interior and Justice Carlos
Holguin, and Minister of Agriculture Andres Felipe Arias.
Salazar told us that internal party consultations to decide
on candidates for 2010 are scheduled for the summer of
2009--likely after Uribe decides whether or not he will run.
Few observers outside of the Party consider Holguin, Arias or
any of the other potential Conservative party candidates to
be serious contenders.

U Party - Stagnate
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7. (C) The U Party also held internal elections on October
26, with a disappointing showing of 330,000 votes from fewer
than half of Colombia's municipalities. The party drew most
of its support from urban areas, especially Bogota. After
the election, U Party President Senator Carlos Ferro--who
replaced Senator Carlos Garcia who is in jail due to the
para-political scandal--said the Party needs more grassroots
support to remain a viable Party--especially if Uribe does
not run again. The poor showing reinforces the perception
that the Party is nothing more than a group of disparate,
former Liberal regional political leaders with little in
common besides Uribe. Ferro told us the Party's poor results
reflect its failure to formulate an independent ideology or
identity.


BROWNFIELD