POLO REMAINS SPLIT HEADING INTO NEXT FEBRUARY'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004067 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER CO SUBJECT: POLO REMAINS SPLIT HEADING INTO NEXT FEBRUARY'S PARTY CONGRESS SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On October 26, the Polo Democratico Alternativo (Polo) party held internal elections to elect 1500 delegates to its 2nd National Congress--planned for February 2009. The elections did not produce a clear winner among the three leading Polo factions: Bogota Mayor Samuel Moreno's supporters, a center-left group affiliated with Senator Gustavo Petro, and the radical left associated with the Communist and Maoist parties. Nearly half of Polo's delegates remain uncommitted. Ex-Polo Secretary General Daniel Garcia-Pena told us the Congress must decide on key issues--such as whether to enter into an electoral alliance with other parties and whether to choose candidates through open or closed primaries--that will determine the Polo's future prospects. He said former Bogota Mayor Lucho Garzon would likely win an open Polo primary, but cautioned that a party split remains a possibility. End Summary. POLO INTERNAL ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 26, three of Colombia's major political parties--Polo, the U party and the Conservative party--held internal elections to vote on party leadership, elect delegates for their internal party congresses, and plan for the 2010 presidential and congressional elections (see septel for Conservative and U Party results). More than 500,000 activists voted in the Polo elections, choosing 1,500 delegates for its 2nd National Congress which will held in February 2009. Party President Carlos Gaviria said the results provided the "foundation for the composition for the 2nd National Congress, where the delegates will choose the executive committee and the national direction of the party." POLO REMAINS DIVIDED -------------- ¶3. (C) Since its inception in 2003, the Polo has been divided between more pragmatic elements and an influential, hard-left, Communist wing. Daily "El Espectador" noted the Polo's difficulty in trying to meld Colombia's notoriously sectarian leftist groups into a unified party. Former Polo Secretary General and Narino Governor Antonio Navarro Wolff told us the Polo is "a mess," with the communist elements around Polo President Carlos Gaviria blocking efforts to clearly condemn the FARC, enter into electoral alliance with other parties, or to adopt more moderate policies aimed at broadening the Polo's electoral appeal. Former Polo Secretary General Daniel Garcia-Pena said that in the battle between the hard left and more pragmatic elements, the balance of power is held by Bogota Mayor Samuel Moreno. He noted that Moreno tends to side with Gaviria and the hard left. ¶4. (C) Three key factions--out of 361 disparate lists put forward by regional party leaders--competed in the October elections, with none garnering a majority. The faction led by Samuel Moreno and Senators Ivan Moreno, Jaime Dussan, and Jesus Bernal, received 16-18% of the 1,500 delegates. A center-left group led by Senator Gustavo Petro, ex-Bogota Mayor Luis "Lucho" Garzon, and ex-Foreign Minister Maria Emma Mejia received 15-17% of the vote. Lastly, the "unreconstructed left" faction, led by Senator Jorge Robledo, received 10% of the delegate count. Gaviria and Communist Representative Wilson Borja led the fourth and fifth place party lists. Garcia-Pena told us almost half of the delegates elected are not tied to one of the three major factions. He fears these "free-agents" may create chaos at the party Congress. POLO'S FUTURE -------------- ¶5. (C) Polo's internal divisions will likely continue into the 2010 presidential and congressional elections. After the internal Polo elections, Borja, Petro and Robledo publicly said maintaining a "united Polo" would be the priority. Gaviria said Polo's goal is to continue growing and building the party base. Still, Garcia-Pena told us the Polo will likely remain a minority Party unless the February Congress changes Party rules to make it easier to form electoral coalitions and to open up its internal primaries to independent voters. For example, he noted that the party currently requires an 80% vote to approve forming an alliance with another party. He and other moderates are pushing to change the rule to 50%. Garcia-Pena claimed the Polo's refusal to form alliances in the 2007 local elections cost it a share of power in numerous departments and cities. ¶6. (C) Carlos Gaviria has told us repeatedly that he does not want to run again, but Garcia-Pena predicted that he will do so. The hard left has no other viable candidate, and Gaviria's vanity will lead him to run. Garcia said that Lucho Garzon would likely win an open Polo presidential primary, though many doubt whether Lucho can carry the party to a 2010 victory. Garzon, a Polo founder, told us he would only run on a Polo ticket if the far-left of the Party was isolated or split from the Party. Garzon also said he has met with Cesar Gavria to explore his options inside the Liberal Party. BROWNFIELD